Written by: Haotian
Before the next wave of AI Agent craze arrives, ordinary retail investors need to "reform" their investment thinking. My personal suggestions are for reference only:
1) Fomo chases "fast pass" projects: If a project can be fast-passed when it goes online, either the Dev has a high degree of control, or a conspiracy group has seized the chips in the early stage. In this case, Fomo chasing the rise will most likely contribute short-term liquidity (rushing to the top of the mountain).
Even if the project continues to be popular and has opportunities for the second and third stages, the mental test and opportunity cost faced by most people are not proportional. It is better to wait for the next wave of early Alpha opportunities or look for potential projects whose value has not yet been discovered.
2) Investing purely based on Dev qualifications, Github Repo, and project narrative: For on-chain investment projects, there is no VC's "real money" investment to endorse them, so Dev qualifications and the level of the Github repository become the biggest reference benchmarks. But don't forget that Dev qualifications, Github stars, etc. are easily diluted. If there is real value, it's not too late to get on board after the market Fomo is over.
Learning from the previous wave of reshuffles, we should at least add a high threshold condition for project building to these value assessment factors. After all, the starting technology and operation thresholds for valuable projects must not be low.
3) The expected pricing valuation is locked in at $300-500 million: It is important to know that the chances of discovering Alpha on the chain are high because the upstream exit pressure of VCs and early participants is removed. It is irrational to rush for projects with a valuation of more than 50 million or even 100-500 million just because of Fomo.
Unless you think that there will be a target with 500 million positive value support on the chain in the short term, or you are sure that this project has 3-5B space. Obviously, the short-term track on the AI Agent chain is not mature at all, with only one @aixbt_agent
The application scenarios have been implemented, but the upper limit of commercial imagination needs to be further improved. In short, don’t bring the CEX coin selection and valuation standards of 500M-5B in the last cycle to the chain;
4) Having scattered positions and not understanding the position division: The logic of position division is to concentrate the chips on the currencies with valuable support as much as possible, so that you have the confidence to survive the big crash and retracement until the rebound. If you have not done any research and have many PVP asset targets, you will most likely suffer a big loss due to too many junk assets. The key is that you are likely to lose confidence in the track and be persuaded to withdraw.
Proper position division and timely position adjustment may not capture greater profits, but it can stabilize opportunities that last longer;
5) Always "planning" a certain currency: Now that the AI Agent industry is in its early stages of development, certainty is very weak, and there are many asset targets. Valuable assets are bound to be mixed with a large number of shoddy assets. If you accidentally go all in on a junk asset, you will lose not only the principal, but also other better opportunities in the entire track.
In the early stages of the track, it is definitely right to use "scumbag thinking" in trading. Of course, it would be better if you can continuously improve your aesthetic taste and establish your own core value currency positions in the process. After all, it will not be pleasant to be a scumbag for a long time in PVP.
