Introduction
On March 20, 2025, a document from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shocked the world: Bitcoin was officially written into the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM7), becoming an "in-house member" of the global economic statistics system. This seemingly obscure technical revision is actually a historic milestone for cryptocurrencies to move from "wild growth" to "mainstreaming". When Bitcoin wears the "official ID card" issued by the IMF, the underlying rules of global capital flows are being quietly rewritten by on-chain technology...
1. Identity Revolution: Bitcoin’s “Ticket to the National Ledger”
For the first time, the IMF clearly labeled cryptocurrencies, dividing them into two camps:
1. Digital hard assets: the “goldification” of Bitcoin
Cryptocurrencies without sovereign backing (such as BTC) are classified as "non-productive non-financial assets" and listed on the same national balance sheet as gold and artworks. This means that if central banks hold Bitcoin, they need to disclose market value fluctuations regularly, just like managing gold reserves.
2. Stablecoins as Financial Instruments
Stablecoins such as USDT and USDC that are backed by liabilities are classified as "financial accounts" and enjoy the same treatment as stocks and bonds. In the future, companies issuing stablecoins may face audit requirements similar to those of traditional financial institutions.
3. The “quasi-equity” attributes of public chain tokens
If platform tokens such as ETH and SOL are held by overseas investors, their staking income may be defined as "primary income" (similar to overseas dividends of multinational companies), and even affect a country's international investment income data.
▶ The core logic of the IMF : Using "whether to bear liabilities" as a yardstick, cryptocurrencies will bid farewell to the statistical blind spot and be officially included in the global economic monitoring system.
2. How is the on-chain economy “included in GDP”?
BPM7 has designed a new statistical formula for cryptocurrency transactions. In the future, these scenarios will directly affect national economic data:
• Mining as a Service Export
When Chinese miners provide computing power to American companies, it will be recorded as "computer service exports", directly increasing China's trade surplus in services.
• Pledge income = overseas dividends
The profits earned by Japanese investors through staking ETH will be included in the country's "primary income account" and counted alongside Toyota's factory profits in the United States.
• Bitcoin buying and selling = capital transfer
BTC transactions between Chinese and American users must be included in the "Other Investments - Non-Financial Assets" account, and cross-border capital flow supervision will now cover on-chain transactions.
• Transparency of national reserves
Bitcoin held by central banks of various countries must be included in the international investment position (IIP) at market price, and cryptocurrency has been officially upgraded to a "sovereign asset allocation option."
3. Global changes: Who is reaping the benefits of the chain?
1. Regulatory arbitrage space is shrinking
The IMF requires countries to establish a crypto asset reporting system by 2029, and exchanges and wallet providers must submit transaction data to the statistics department. Anonymous coins and DeFi protocols may face a "data crackdown."
2. Real-time monitoring of capital flows
By tracking on-chain addresses, the Federal Reserve can monitor capital flight through cryptocurrency channels. Emerging market countries have a "new weapon" to control exchange rate fluctuations.
3. New battlefield for sovereignty game
The U.S. state of North Carolina has passed legislation allowing 10% of fiscal funds to be allocated to Bitcoin;
More than half of South Korean investors are over 50 years old, and the logic of intergenerational wealth distribution has been overturned;
El Salvador's Bitcoin bond plan has been tacitly approved by the IMF, and the small country is using crypto assets to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar.
4. Hidden reefs under the carnival: data black hole and regulatory paradox
• Volatility Trap
It has become normal for Bitcoin to fluctuate by more than 10% in a single day. The IMF requires statistics to be based on the market price at the moment of transaction, but sharp fluctuations may distort the authenticity of the balance of payments.
• DeFi data fog
Although BPM7 requires the integration of exchange data, on-chain lending and privacy coin transactions are still difficult to penetrate, and the statistical error may exceed one trillion US dollars.
• Compliance dilemma
The EU is strictly investigating exchanges for anti-money laundering, but the IMF requires them to disclose user data - how will the balance between commercial confidentiality and regulatory costs tip?
5. The next decade: the domestication and rebellion of cryptocurrencies
• CBDC VS Bitcoin: A showdown within and outside the system
The IMF classifies central bank digital currency (CBDC) as legal tender, forming a "regular army vs. guerrilla" confrontation pattern with Bitcoin.
• The secret war on national reserves escalates
The Trump administration has officially included Bitcoin in the U.S. strategic reserves, and cryptocurrency has transformed from a "decentralized ideal" into a geopolitical financial weapon.
• Statistics Revolution 2.0
The IMF plans to promote the direct connection of on-chain data to the national statistical system by 2030, by which time every DeFi loan may enter the balance of payments account.
Conclusion
When Bitcoin was included in the IMF's statistical manual, this financial experiment that began with cypherpunks finally broke through the iron door of the traditional economic system. However, the struggle between regulatory incorporation and technological rebellion continues - in the next decade, cryptocurrencies may walk on the tightrope of "compliance" and "decentralization". The only certainty is that the password for global capital flows has been forever rewritten by blockchain.
Interactive question: Is Bitcoin on the ledger a pie or a trap?
