Written by: WOO
Pi Network is a new digital cryptocurrency that uses mobile devices as a platform and focuses on low barriers to participation. Unlike traditional Bitcoin, which requires a lot of electricity and professional equipment for mining, Pi Network allows users to "mine" through mobile applications, greatly reducing technical and cost barriers, allowing more ordinary people to participate in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
At first glance, it seems to be a normal "cryptocurrency" project, but it is not. Pi Network was founded as early as 2019, but it has not yet launched the main network. Mobile mining is still in the state of "mining air". In terms of the token acquisition mechanism, a higher proportion is to increase one's mining share by recommending friends to use the registration code. Compared with the mining of consensus mechanisms such as PoW and PoS using blockchain technology, this model is more like a pyramid scheme.
However, after a six-year hiatus, Pi Network finally announced the launch of its mainnet, and multiple exchanges have launched token trading. It seems that Pi is serious this time, so how should the Pi coin be valued?
Pi coin total supply and circulation
Pi Network has not yet officially announced the final total supply limit of Pi coins, but according to community and white paper information, it is generally believed that the maximum supply of Pi coins is about 100 billion. This means that if each Pi coin is worth $1, the fully diluted market value (FDV) will reach $100 billion. As of the end of 2024, Pi is still in the main network closed period and has not yet been fully opened for trading, so the actual circulation supply is limited. According to blockchain browser data:
- August 2023: About 1.97 billion Pi will be migrated to the mainnet (of which 1.29 billion are locked by users)
- September 2024: Mainnet cumulative migration supply increases to approximately 4.07 billion (1.35 billion locked), a 106.6% surge in supply in more than a year
- January 2025: 5.56 billion tokens have been migrated to the mainnet, of which about 660 million are still locked. The supply has increased by 36.6% in just three months.
In terms of total supply, the Pi white paper mentioned that when the mainnet is opened, users may have mined 10 to 20 billion PI coins. In other words, the actual circulating supply in the early stage may be only a small part of the total, and most Pi coins will be gradually mined over time. This also means that the supply is controlled in the short term, and the potential inflation pressure in the long term is huge.
Market demand and potential user data
Since the launch of the mobile mining app in 2019, Pi Network has claimed to have attracted the attention and participation of tens of millions of users worldwide. In terms of user base: According to the Pi team, there are more than 60 million registered users worldwide. However, it is worth noting that only a portion of them are real users who have completed KYC verification. In 2023, Pi officials stated that about 12 million people passed KYC verification. Even by the beginning of 2025, the total number of mainnet wallets shown by on-chain data is only about 9.11 million, accounting for only 15% of the claimed users.
This means that although the number of registered users is huge, the proportion of users who are truly active and have completed the migration to the chain is limited.
In addition, daily active usage can also reflect actual demand. According to data from the third-party blockchain browser ExplorePi, the average number of active wallets on the Pi mainnet is about 20,000 per day, with a peak of about 42,000 in January 2025. Compared with the tens of millions of users officially claimed by Pi Network, this activity is relatively low.
Valuation Model and Possible Price Range
Based on the above information, we can try to establish several Pi coin valuation models to estimate its price range. Common cryptocurrency valuation ideas include "market value" and "OTC price"
Market Cap:
At present, the total number of tokens is 100 billion, and the circulation is estimated to be 10 billion:
- Benchmarking Dogecoin: Both are similar in terms of user community driven features. If Pi can replicate the success of DOGE, then based on DOGE’s current market value of $40 billion, the value of Pi tokens could reach $4.
- Market value ranks 50th: The current market value of the 50th currency is POL, with a market value of 2.7 billion US dollars. If Pi can enter the top 50 market value at the opening, the token price will be 0.27 US dollars.
- Market value ranks in the top 100: The current market value of XTZ ranks 50th, with a market value of $920 million. If Pi can enter the top 100 in market value at the opening, the value of Pi tokens can reach $0.092.
OTC: Over-the-counter (OTC) trading has always been the main way for Pi coin enthusiasts to exchange. In the absence of an open market, price differences have emerged in different regions:
- In some areas of mainland China and Southeast Asia, there were early rumors that the price of privately purchasing Pi coins was about several yuan. As mentioned above, the OTC purchase price in the Taiwan market is about 0.23 USD to 0.85 USD.
- In some foreign communities, some people are willing to trade a small amount of Pi privately at a valuation of $5-10 USD, more to bet on the appreciation potential after the listing in the future. However, such private transactions are full of fraud risks and the number is limited, so they cannot be regarded as mainstream quotations.
- Some merchants and users privately agree to accept Pi coins in exchange for goods or services in order to lay out the Pi ecosystem in advance. This can be seen as an implicit offer in over-the-counter applications, converting each Pi to between 1 and 3 US dollars. However, this is more for merchant marketing or support for the Pi community. It does not necessarily mean that they are willing to purchase an unlimited amount of Pi coins at this price.
The market valuation of Pi coin will depend on two factors: supply and demand game and confidence consensus:
- Supply perspective: The limited circulation in the early stage may push up the price of Pi coins, but in the long run, the huge total supply (100 billion coins) is a sword of Damocles. If the application ecosystem cannot expand synchronously to absorb these supplies, the price will eventually face downward pressure. Therefore, the Pi project may need to take measures such as controlling the pace of inflation and increasing application demand to maintain the currency value in the future.
- Demand perspective: Hundreds of thousands or even millions of active coin holders will be the cornerstone of Pi's value. After the exchange goes online, the behavior of these users (whether they hold on to see whether to sell or cash out) will directly affect the market value. If most people choose to continue holding and regard Pi as a long-term asset, coupled with the optimistic inflow of external funds, the market value of Pi is expected to move towards the tens of billions of dollars, making the price stand in the mid-to-high range of $1-$3. On the contrary, if a selling wave occurs as soon as it goes online and there is oversupply, the market value may only stop at the billion-dollar level or even below, and the price will fall back to below $1.
- Market positioning: If Pi Network can prove that it is not just a pyramid scheme, but a real blockchain technology and application, then the market may give it a higher valuation multiple (similar to the level of XRP and BNB). Otherwise, if the negative arguments (pyramid scheme, no blockchain support, etc.) are confirmed, Pi coin may not be able to escape the fate of shrinking value.
The valuation of Pi coin is confusing, but what is certain is that short-term fluctuations will be very drastic. We recommend paying attention to the following indicators to determine the valuation trend of Pi coin:
- Trading volume and turnover rate in the first week of launch (reflecting market enthusiasm)
- Mainnet unlocking progress (supply release rhythm)
- Pi ecological application landing (determining long-term demand)
The most important thing is the overall crypto market situation. In a bull market, speculative funds are abundant, and Pi coins are likely to get higher valuations; on the contrary, in a bear market, even the best themes can hardly escape declines, and the recent lack of market liquidity has also made the valuation situation less optimistic than before.
However, it is difficult to calculate the madness of human nature in valuation. What Pi Network is praised for is their community cohesion.
There is no practical application, and the ability to "go viral" depends on word of mouth, which is quite similar to the composition of meme coins. The reason why Pi Network has such a strong community is that Picoin has set up an invitation mechanism and built an upper and lower structure. The inviter can gain benefits by attracting new people (such as increasing their mining speed).
This kind of interest structure has been tied to the dream of Pi Network for six years. Its project and community have been able to maintain stability, and its survival time has been longer than 95% of the projects in the currency circle. Most community members have become firm believers, and they have even threatened not to sell a single coin after the main network is launched, but to buy more Pi coins. With the low initial circulation and the loyalty of the community, it is difficult to estimate the market value of Pi, which has been operating for six years, on a perceptual level. But it is foreseeable that there will be huge fluctuations at the beginning of the token launch.
