Author: Revc
The AI Agent track has attracted a large number of investors recently due to its extreme volatility, and its high-yield potential has created a unique trading experience. MEME trading stimulates the "balance roller coaster jump", and the instant release of dopamine makes people excited and addicted, and investors are tested at the psychological and emotional levels.
For investors, while enjoying the benefits brought by market fluctuations, they should be wary of the erosion of addiction and avoid emotional operations. At the same time, by deeply studying the long-term value and technical potential of the project, they can find a more stable investment direction in the fluctuations. The market needs to have both rationality and passion, rather than being dominated by a single stimulus.
Currently, MEME project screening follows two lines: "speculation" and value discovery. This article analyzes the high-frequency "speculative" operation methods and reveals how professional MEME creators consume investors' energy and capital.
15 times the case in 1 hour
Taking the MEME token Agora as an example, investors initially judged that the project had the potential to rise, and then carried out scalping transactions for arbitrage. Multiple scalping transactions allowed investors to quickly double their principal, and this was just the beginning. After the penultimate purchase, Agora quickly increased by 15 times within 30 minutes. Since the trading interface on the web side did not have stop-profit and stop-loss functions, the actual profit was far from 15 times. However, under the stimulation of the 15-fold increase, investors fell into a cycle of continued speculation and eventually lost everything in the volatility.
PS: Scalping is a high-frequency trading strategy in which traders make profits by capturing short-term price fluctuations in stocks, futures or other financial instruments. The core idea of scalping is to use short-term market fluctuations to quickly enter and exit transactions, making smaller profits for each transaction, but accumulating profits through multiple transactions.
The strategy of analyzing from 30 seconds to zeroing out the principal in 10 minutes
MEME trading is a high-intensity game of information capture and rapid execution, while PVP trading has evolved a framework indicator system for screening projects. In this mode, the analysis and execution links are extremely compressed, usually only taking a few minutes to complete, especially when the project market value has just reached N times the internal market value (about 68,000 US dollars). At this time, N is usually less than 10, that is, the market value is less than 600,000 US dollars, and the market competition is extremely fierce. However, once the project hits a high and falls back, such new projects are often quickly abandoned by investors and the heat drops sharply.
1. Project judgment and screening: On the new listings page, projects are sorted by launch time. At this time, projects usually have a trading volume of 3-5 times the market value, and a blue chip index of 0-1.2%. When quickly screening on the first-level page, focus on the following indicators: fast growth in the number of addresses, low market value (avoid selecting projects with a market value of tens of millions of dollars), and projects that have not experienced a sharp pullback within 1-5 minutes and are still setting new highs.
2. Release time: 30 minutes is usually a critical dividing line. Most projects will begin to show signs of market crash and closing about 30 minutes after release (data collected from around 6 pm Beijing time).
3. Market capitalization: Projects with a market capitalization of around $300,000 are usually more reasonable, while projects with a market capitalization of tens of millions of dollars may have a higher risk of running away.
4. Risk of running away: The GMGN platform will mark the operation records of developers in historical projects, such as pool withdrawal, market crash or developer running away. These marks are important indicators for evaluating project stability.
5. Blue Chip Index: As a growth indicator, the Blue Chip Index reflects investors’ purchasing power and community consensus by analyzing the blue chip tokens held by investors, providing an indirect basis for judging the health of the project.
6. Order book health indicator (X = trading volume / market value): Usually in the early stage of the project, the X value is close to 2, and then it shows a downward opening parabola trend. When the parabola reaches its peak, the trading volume hits a new high and the market value is close to the cycle high, which usually indicates that PVP trading activities have reached a climax. After that, the trading volume decreases, the market value decreases, and the "smart money" begins to withdraw.
In addition, the trading volume can be used to make a preliminary judgment on the token. For example, a record high in the amount of a single transaction may mean the entry of large funds, which has a positive impact on the market. However, many trading platforms currently do not provide statistics on the trend changes of the amount of a single transaction or the frequency of transactions. Relying solely on trading volume data may not be enough to fully analyze market trends.
7. Labeled traders: usually the leading MEME communities and DEX platforms, reflecting whether the publicity and promotion has covered the mainstream community, but usually such addresses withdraw from the pool quickly.
8. TOP10 address indicator: This indicator is used to analyze the top ten addresses in terms of token holdings and their holdings as a percentage of the total supply. Generally speaking, it is healthier for the top ten addresses to hold less than 20%, indicating that the token distribution is more dispersed, the community consensus is stronger, and the risk of selling is relatively low.
9. Profit expectation formula: As the market value of tokens grows from $300,000 to $3 million, the success rate is often extremely low. Investors usually invest 1-10 SOL in a single project, but excessive liquidity may cause prices to soar, triggering greed and quick profit-taking among holders. For example, assuming that the success rate of investors screening projects is P=10%, and the funds return to zero after failure, then according to 1/P=10, a single project needs to achieve a 1000% return rate to break even. In this case, projects with a market value of hundreds of thousands of dollars are more like a probability game.
10. New coin priority strategy: As the screening and analysis framework of MEME tokens matures, creators tend to issue new tokens to make it easier to manipulate relevant indicators. This new coin issuance model not only caters to the market's preference for "innovation", but also increases the possibility of attracting capital inflows in the short term.
11. For the same concept, Base is preferred: Taking the Percy concept recently promoted by Musk as an example, the performance of the Base network is significantly better than Solana. This is because most of the users of the Base network are senior DeFi users, and their purchasing power is usually 3-4 times that of Solana users. In addition, whales enter the market more frequently in transactions on Base, which further enhances its market performance and capital liquidity.
12. Double-out strategy: Since PVP is a high-frequency and high-risk trading model, users are easily affected by emotional fluctuations during the process. The "double-out" strategy is a relatively scientific and less psychologically taxing method. By taking back the initial investment after doubling the returns, investors can more easily hold the remaining assets for a long time, thereby getting rid of the pressure and distress caused by short-term emotional fluctuations.
13. Analysis of the motivation for pool adjustment: In medium and large projects, investors usually pair tokens with SOL into Raydium liquidity pools to obtain a 24-hour APR of up to 999.99%. The core essence of DeFi is to short volatility, and when there is a one-sided market in the paired assets, liquidity providers may face impermanent losses. When investors increase liquidity pool assets, it usually means that they are optimistic about the short-term rise of the corresponding assets, but the amplitude may be limited, reflecting a signal of short-term consolidation. When investors reduce pool assets, they often take a bearish attitude towards a certain asset, which may be accompanied by selling or readjusting the exchange ratio of assets.
14. Observe the actions of new addresses: Regular market making is considered a danger signal, such as large amounts of buy-sell transactions. You can also study the trading habits of the developer’s address.
After understanding the above methods and having a preliminary analysis of the internal disk projects, congratulations, you are about to fall into the trap of professional MEME traders. They will create a perfect MEME in terms of indicators, which conforms to your project analysis and screening framework, and then create a story, AI + founder interaction + hackathon, etc., coupled with the emotional ups and downs brought by high-frequency trading, which makes the judgment of the project quickly lost, the trading discipline is broken, and losses follow. Therefore, this article is a "MEME addiction article". No matter which channel investors learn about the "wealth code", the information gap still exists, because PVP must have people to take over, so new Web3 users should avoid indulging in the MEME track and slowly cultivate the ability to discover value.
For framework AI Agent projects, you can follow the Forks page in the GitHub code repository to see which projects have referenced Eliza's code. But even so, you need to carefully evaluate the development progress and actual potential of the project to avoid blindly following the trend of investment.
The last MEME shocking suggestion - arrange your time reasonably and take a rest! !
summary
MEME trading is not only a test of innovation and risk tolerance, but also fully demonstrates the potential of cutting-edge concepts such as AI Agent in technological breakthroughs and decentralized narratives. Such high-volatility markets provide keen investors with opportunities to make quick profits, while also promoting the exploration and development of blockchain technology, token economic models, and AI application scenarios. In this environment, investors need to continuously optimize their instant decision-making capabilities and market adaptability, so as to find and apply advantageous strategies in high-risk markets.
However, the high-frequency volatility of the MEME market also contains great risks. Drastic price fluctuations can easily induce emotional trading, causing investors to fall into a cycle of "blind speculation". The dopamine pleasure brought by short-term gains may make people ignore the logic of long-term value investment, and over-reliance on short-term trading often leads to substantial losses of principal. Especially those projects that lack solid technical support or real application scenarios, after the heat subsides, are very likely to become pure speculative tools, causing investors to suffer high losses. This loss not only hits personal investment confidence, but may also have a negative impact on the healthy development of the entire crypto industry, further exacerbating market instability.
For investors, rationality and long-term perspective are particularly important. When participating in MEME transactions, technical analysis and project value exploration should be combined to avoid being swept away by short-term fluctuations. Only by finding a balance between risk and return can we achieve real sustainable profits in this highly volatile market.
