Author: Sleeping in the Rain
This article mainly wants to share with you some of my thoughts on the market after November.
This is a Thread⬇️
1/ Ethereum
Let’s start with Ethereum. Recently, “pessimism about Ethereum” seems to have become the consensus of the market. The market seems to have no reason to prove that Ethereum is better than Solana. Solana is better than Ethereum in all indicators. Some aggressive market participants have begun to believe that Solana will have a chance to flip Ethereum. But I think Ethereum still has a chance. Its core advantages lie in two points: ETF and RWA.
A friend of mine compared ETF inflows to liquidity with condoms - although they are buying Bitcoin, the money is not flowing into the crypto market. Ethereum also has an ETF. If we believe that Bitcoin will reach 100K in this cycle, then Ethereum will definitely receive some spillover capital inflows. This is beyond doubt. If the SOL ETF is passed, Ethereum will no longer have this advantage.
Although my previous view is: "Ethereum will transform from the DeFi narrative to the RWA narrative", a core problem is that even if the RWA track has sufficient funding space, it is not a very sexy track for the market. Even if the RWA track expands, it will not bring huge market attention to Ethereum. Attention = money.
I think 2025 may be the year of mass adoption. And AI Agent will be the key to mass adoption of crypto. And its mass adoption will happen on Basechain, and Ethereum will benefit from it (market attention).
Next, I will talk about this matter from two aspects.
1. Why AI Agent?
First of all, let's make one thing clear: the future development potential of AI Agent is unlimited. Perhaps in 2300, the future world may be dominated by a large and unified AI to dominate our lives (maybe the computing power in the future can meet the needs). But in this era, AI Agent will be a better application scenario for AI technology. Imagine that after data training and reasoning training in different professional directions, each AI Agent can become an expert in the corresponding field and perform tasks in specific scenarios to meet our needs.
Secondly, in my opinion, in the current AI cycle (similar to the previous Internet cycle), the main point of Crypto x AI is "what Crypto can do for training AI", such as computing power, data, etc. The explosion of AI Agent meme will make the market realize that AI technology can also be used to empower Crypto. The infrastructure such as wallets, DeFi, NFT, etc. launched by the crypto industry before will become a hotbed for the development of AI Agent.
So, why is Crypto infrastructure so important to driving the large-scale emergence of AI Agents?
Code Interaction
Crypto’s smart contracts are essentially automated executions, and AI Agents can easily implement payments, quantitative transactions, market predictions, liquidity mining, and asset issuance through the interaction of these codes. What about AI in the traditional world? It’s difficult to achieve.
Imagine, will banks customize accounts for AI Agents? Will the financial industry provide services for AI Agents? It is very difficult to do these things at present, but the decentralized Crypto world does not require thresholds or KYC. AI Agents can easily create their own accounts through Coinbase Wallet (or other infrastructure) and perform more complex and diversified behaviors (especially economic behaviors) while completing the goals set by humans.
For example, $LUNA is rewarding Twitter Followers who complete tasks through tips, and the Aether AI Agent launched by the $HIGHER community has accumulated $150,000 for its treasury through donations and NFT minting.
Composability and Monitoring of AI Agents
These two points are mainly due to the composability and openness of blockchain technology. Using blockchain technology, AI Agents can collaborate with each other like DeFi Lego to complete more complex task goals. At the same time, all kinds of behaviors of AI Agents will leave marks on the chain so that humans can better monitor AI behavior.
I personally think that the initial tasks of AI Agent may focus on on-chain scenarios such as memecoin transactions, DeFi Farming, and DeFi arbitrage transactions. Later, AI Agent will be expanded to the Web2 world to complete some broader tasks from the traditional world.
2. Why Basechain?
The logic here is that I am more optimistic that Base can become the main scenario for AI Agent applications. In my opinion, Base has a first-mover advantage - Coinbase has launched the Based Agent toolkit, through which users can create an AI robot with a wallet in a few minutes. In addition to Coinbase's promotion, more AI Agent infrastructure has been/will be deployed in Base or the Ethereum ecosystem, such as Wayfidner (which can be mined through $PRIME) and Spectral.
As for the target, I currently hold three tokens: $LUNA $GOAT $HIGHER.
$GOAT is the first AI Agent meme to be hyped, culturally relevant, and has attracted a lot of attention from the market for a long time. If there are no problems with the market, I expect its price to run again in the near future.
$LUNA is an AI Agent (virtual idol) on Base. Her feature is that she has a crypto wallet and will use this wallet according to the goals set by humans. I think it may be the only meme that can compete with $GOAT (for now).
Aether was created by Martin for the High community ($HIGHER), deployed on Farcaster, and has control over a cryptographic vault. It has raised $150,000 in funding for the vault through donations and NFT minting. Could it be the first AI millionaire? Compared to the first two, it can be crypto-native and deployed on a social platform like Farcaster, which is less restrictive than Twitter. (Source: Bankless)
At the same time, I am also looking to see if there will be more interesting AI agents in the future. I think the AI agent track may see a hype path from meme to infrastructure.
In the future, I will focus 80% of my energy on the AI Agent track and will also bring more related content.
2/ General Election
There is actually nothing much to say about the election. Whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the world. Many people can analyze the direction of the election very professionally, so I won’t make fun of them here. After the election results come out, there is a high probability that the news will be sold for a while, and then continue to rise.
If the Republicans come to power, it will be good for $BTC $DOGE $AAVE.
If the Democrats come to power, it will be good for $XRP, and $XRP also has an ETF narrative.
However, I think that no matter who comes to power, the regulatory environment for crypto will become more relaxed, and I am optimistic about the crypto market in 2025.
3/ Alpha
1. Hyperliquid will hold a TGE after the election. If Hyperliquid announces a TGE, $PURR will most likely see a wave of early hype. I am very optimistic about Hyperliquid's model of aggregating liquidity, so I am also optimistic about Hyperliquid's official mascot $PURR. And you can clearly see that projects like Jupiter and Hyperliquid have fully understood the current market operation model - releasing memes before TGE for market hype to attract market attention.
2. The Avalanche Foundation may have bought back 1.97 million $AVAX from LFG OTC. This is definitely a good thing for the long-term development of Avalanche. However, it should be noted that after "buying" back these $AVAX, the foundation split them and kept them in multiple wallets (each wallet holds about 2.5M worth of $AVAX).
3. MakerDAO’s Rebranding I have mentioned this many times before, so I won’t repeat it here. I think MakerDAO has completely messed this up.
Nov 4 $SKY - Start Re-rebranding ($MKR) Governance Voting
4. Maple I have mentioned in my previous outlook, currency exchange.
Nov 13 $MPL - SYRUP Token Launch
