In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market showed a mild rebound, with Bitcoin prices fluctuating in a narrow range around $87,400 and Ethereum slightly correcting to $2,070. Among the mainstream currencies, Solana (SOL) rose 2% against the trend, reaching a high of $146 during the day.
As of March 26, Beijing time, the total market value of cryptocurrencies rose slightly by 0.4% to US$2.87 trillion, and the market sentiment index (Fear & Greed Index) fell to 34, indicating that investors remain cautious.
On the news front, the former "Wall Street meme" stock and game retailer GameStop officially announced on the 25th local time that its board of directors unanimously passed a resolution to include Bitcoin in its balance sheet reserves. GameStop surged 7% in after-hours trading in the U.S. stock market, with its share price rising to $27.19.
In fact, there were signs of this decision: two months ago, after the photo of GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen meeting with BTC bull Michael Saylor leaked, its major shareholder Strive Asset Management publicly called on the company to follow MicroStrategy's currency holding strategy. Strive CEO Matt Cole said at the time: "We believe that GameStop can improve its financial situation by purchasing Bitcoin, which is a strategic configuration."
Is BTC coming out of adjustment?
On-chain data reveals new trends in capital flows. CryptoQuant data shows that despite the stable price trend of Bitcoin, on-chain data reveals key signals:
Institutional capital migration: In the past 24 hours, there were 17 BTC transfers exceeding US$100 million, and the total on-chain transfer volume increased by 268%, reaching a three-month high.
Exchange flow: Coinbase had the highest positive premium of 0.3%. At the same time, the exchange's BTC reserves fell by 1%, and about 12,000 bitcoins flowed into cold wallets. This "low volatility, high turnover" trend suggests that institutional investors may be carrying out large-scale asset custody transfers.
Derivatives market balance: perpetual contract funding rate returned to the neutral range of 0.01%, and the option volatility surface showed that the put/call ratio (PCR) dropped to 0.85, suggesting a slight recovery in bullish sentiment.
It is worth noting that the Bitcoin unrealized net profit and loss indicator (NUPL) has fallen from 0.68 last week to 0.55, indicating that some short-term holders have begun to take profits. Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC has increased by 12 against the trend, indicating that whale accounts are still quietly accumulating funds.
Hani Abuagla, senior analyst at XTB MENA, believes that Bitcoin is emerging from the second deepest adjustment in this cycle. If the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the easing of trade policy work together, the possibility of breaking through the $100,000 mark in the spring still exists.
Macro variables: PCE data becomes a key touchstone
The U.S. core PCE price index for February, which will be released on Friday (March 28), may become a key variable that breaks the market balance. As the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to, the market expects the year-on-year growth rate of core PCE to rise slightly from 2.6% in January to 2.7%. If the data exceeds expectations, it may further postpone the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.
The current CME FedWatch tool shows that traders' expectations for the Fed's rate cuts this year have narrowed to 50-75 basis points, and the first rate cut may be postponed to the third quarter. If the PCE data reinforces the "inflation stickiness" narrative, U.S. Treasury yields may rise again, and a stronger dollar may put short-term pressure on risky assets. In the current market context, slight fluctuations in inflation data may indirectly affect the direction of the crypto market by changing market liquidity expectations.
TradingView analysts believe that for short-term traders, they can pay attention to the breakthrough direction of Bitcoin's support level of $87,000 and resistance level of $90,000, and build volatility strategies in combination with options with low IV. For medium- and long-term holders, the on-chain MVRV ratio (1.98) is still lower than the historical bull market peak (3.5), and the dispersion index of the coin holding address shows that the chip structure is healthy. It is still a feasible option to build positions in batches during callbacks.
