Macroeconomic Outlook Next Week: The last monetary policy week of 2024 is coming, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in December

PANews reported on December 15 that swap traders reduced their bets on the path of the Federal Reserve's easing policy after a series of mixed data was released this week. This week, the Dow fell 1.82%, the S&P 500 fell 0.64%, ending a three-week winning streak, and the Nasdaq rose 0.34%. Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive weeks, the longest winning streak since 2021. The last important monetary policy week in 2024 will attract investors' attention. According to statistics, at least 22 central banks, accounting for two-fifths of the global economy, will determine borrowing costs by the close of next Friday. The results are likely to highlight that the momentum of easing policy now looks increasingly unbalanced as policymakers weigh different risks in the coming year. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

At 15:30 on Monday, European Central Bank President Lagarde will deliver a speech;

At 04:45 on Tuesday, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem delivered a speech;

At 03:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and a summary of its economic forecasts;

At 03:30 on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference;

On Thursday (exact time to be determined), the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;

At 14:30 on Thursday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a monetary policy press conference;

At 21:30 on Thursday, the revised value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter of the United States, the preliminary value of the quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditures in the third quarter of the United States, and the December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index of the United States will be released.

It is worth mentioning that the Federal Reserve’s preferred basic inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE), will be released next Friday. Economists predict that the November PCE (excluding food and energy) released on Friday may rise by 0.2%, the smallest increase in three months. The report will also show solid growth in consumer spending and income, indicating that the economy is resilient.