The October U.S. non-farm payrolls data was far below expectations. Excluding the data distortion caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the labor market is also gradually cooling down. At the same time, the U.S. election results are about to be announced, and Trump's chances of winning have unexpectedly weakened. The reversal of the "Trump deal" has added more uncertainty to the election.
According to 4E monitoring, the financial reports of major technology giants were released last week. Although Apple's financial report was disappointing on Friday, the weak non-farm payrolls in the United States in October boosted expectations of interest rate cuts. In addition, the favorable financial reports of Amazon and Intel boosted the optimism of technology stocks. The Nasdaq closed up 0.8%. However, on a weekly basis, U.S. stocks fell all week. The Nasdaq bid farewell to the previous seven-week winning streak and fell 1.5% for the week, the S&P fell 1.4%, and the Dow fell 0.2%. The crypto market was affected by the weakening of the "Trump deal". After approaching a record high at the end of the month, risk aversion has intensified. As of press time, Bitcoin was at $68,885, up 0.25%, and the 7-day gain closed down to 1.8%.
In terms of foreign exchange, the US dollar index reversed in a V-shape on the "non-farm day" on Friday, rising above 104 again and erasing the weekly decline, with a cumulative increase of 0.06% last week. The British pound was the only non-US currency to close higher, bidding farewell to the decline after the budget sell-off in the previous two days, but the five-week decline was the longest in six years. Spot gold rose slightly after the non-farm data on Friday, but as the US dollar and US bond yields remained strong, it subsequently fell back and finally closed down 0.32%, the largest weekly decline since August. Due to Iran's relatively restrained retaliation against Israel, US crude oil production hit a new high, and the weakening of non-farm and other economic data caused concerns about demand. International crude oil fell from its highs last Friday, and oil prices fell by more than 3% for the whole week.
This week will be a week that changes history. The US election will start the final vote on November 5 (Tuesday), and it is expected that the election results will be basically finalized at noon on November 6 (Beijing time). At present, the election situation is deadlocked, and the polls in swing states are constantly changing. The latest poll data shows that there is no obvious advantage between Trump and Harris. Some investors choose to take profits on some Trump-oriented positions, especially those assets related to Trump's policies and improved polls. The current market style is generally cautious, and uncertainty is increasing.
