After Trump was elected as the next president of the United States, U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies hit record highs. In particular, U.S. ETF funds continued to purchase Bitcoin and Ethereum, leading the crypto industry into another bull market trend, and the market fomo sentiment was full.
Most of the ancient currencies have even increased by 5 times, which has also caused many investors to wonder: Is it the top of the bull market or halfway up the mountain? Analysts at the StarEx exchange believe that there is a high probability that there will be a rally in the future, and the current market is just in the adjustment stage after rising too much.
1. Bitcoin holder structure: long-term vs short-term
Long-term holders are often considered " smart money " because they have a deeper understanding of the market rhythm and tend to buy at low points and take profits at high points. On-chain data shows that in the first quarter of this year, long-term holders began to take profits ; in the summer, during the market turmoil, long-term holders re-accumulated assets ; currently, as Bitcoin soared, long-term holders began to reduce their positions again.
Currently, 69% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is held by long-term holders . This figure was 58% at the peak of the cycle in 2021 and 51% at the peak of the cycle in 2017 .
Short-term holders are the " new money " in the market , and their share usually increases gradually during the bull market. On-chain data shows that short-term holders currently hold 16.6% of Bitcoin ; at the peak of the Bitcoin cycle in 2021, this proportion was 25% ; at the peak in 2017, this proportion reached 70% .
Judging from the above data, the bull market is still
2. Exchange data: a key signal of supply and demand balance
Historical data shows that when prices rise, more Bitcoin usually flows into exchanges for sale. However, the current balance of Bitcoin on exchanges continues to decline, reflecting that investors prefer to hold for the long term or transfer assets to cold wallets.
The funding rate of the futures market is an important indicator of market sentiment and leverage usage. Data shows that the current funding rate of Bitcoin is 0.012% , far lower than the 0.17% at its peak in 2021 .
The current low financing rate indicates that the market leverage level is moderate and the market structure is healthy, which is a positive signal for future trends.
3. Market sentiment: Where is the boundary of greed?
The market sentiment index has been in the " extreme greed " stage since November 1. However, compared with the previous cycle, the current market participation and sentiment performance are still far behind , indicating that there may be room for further warming in the future.
4. The weathervane of the Meme coin market
Meme coins demonstrate the speculative trend and community power of the retail market . Although Meme coins are extremely risky, they can attract new users and bring traffic and vitality to the broader crypto market. At present, the hype of meme coins is obviously still hot.
5. StarEx Exchange Analysts ’ Views
Combining on-chain data and market sentiment, analysts at StarEx Exchange believe that in the short term, Bitcoin still has the potential to rise and may challenge the target of $120,000 before Christmas. In the long run, the key to the market's rise lies in the speed of new capital inflows and the support of the external economic environment. Including: the US dollar index , CPI data , the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, etc. may have a greater impact on the market.
