A world with unbalanced policies, a world with scarce trust, and a world with monetized debt—that’s exactly where Bitcoin’s biggest bull market comes from.

All gray rhinos and black swans ultimately point to the same answer: real hard assets are returning to center stage.

Currently, volatility in the crypto market is driven by sentiment rather than capital. Analysts at StarEx Exchange believe that this is a short-term oversold rebound rather than a trend reversal.

The capital market has been mentally prepared for the tariff expectations. If there is further negative news leading to a decline, it will be an opportunity to buy at the bottom in the short term.

The global economic slowdown and the "stagflation" environment are conducive to the rise of gold prices, so gold rebounded first. Bitcoin is still mainly regarded as a risky asset, and the consensus in the traditional financial system is not yet solid, so it may still fluctuate with the trend of US stocks in the short term. However, as market liquidity improves, Bitcoin is expected to usher in a new round of bull market, and may break through the $200,000 mark in the future.

Market panic may suppress risky assets, but the logic of Bitcoin's rise has nothing to do with U.S. stocks, but only with U.S. dollar liquidity. As recession expectations heat up, the Federal Reserve will sooner or later restart money printing, and the "spillover effect" of capital from gold to Bitcoin will gradually emerge.

The key point of the market next is whether the US economy will experience an unexpected decline or inflation will exceed expectations. This is the key factor that determines the market trend.

Funds choose to stay put. They are waiting for clear signals, including whether the macro-economy will decline, whether the Federal Reserve will print money and flood the market with liquidity, and whether a new ecological narrative will emerge in the crypto market.

For institutional funds, they will not rush into the market unless the bear market risk of U.S. stocks is eliminated and the shadow of economic recession is lifted, unless the market plummets to a relative bottom. However, today's leverage explosion incident has also contributed to a stage bottom, so they can enter the market on dips to buy at the bottom.

Trump's call will boost the market in the short term, but the long-term situation still depends on the inflow of institutional funds.

The key to achieving a true bull market is the continued inflow of large-scale funds. At present, institutional investors are more concerned about whether the US economy will enter a recession and whether there are systemic risks in the US stock market. Only when these uncertainties are resolved can the crypto market be expected to usher in a real long-term upward trend.

Another surge in Bitcoin may require a depreciation of the U.S. dollar, especially in the event of a U.S. recession, the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and printing money.

If the U.S. dollar’s monetary policy changes, the crypto market will also see a trend, especially when the market crash forces the Fed to start printing money.

Whether the market can get out of trouble in the future depends on whether new ecological opportunities will emerge or whether the market can wash out the bloody chips through a sharp drop. Before that, investors need to remain patient, operate cautiously, and wait for the market to turn around.

The SOL ecological token has experienced capital outflow in the short term, and some funds have flowed back to Ethereum, which may bring about a certain degree of rebound and deserves special attention.

After a sharp drop in early February, panic has been released. The market is currently in a volatile state and will not fall sharply in the short term. High-quality currencies can be entered at low prices.

Although the market is full of challenges in the short term, truly high-quality projects are often born in the cold winter. History shows that only those projects that are truly innovative and capable of implementation can settle in the market downturn and eventually usher in explosive growth.

If a crisis occurs and the market panics, Bitcoin will plummet in the short term. Once the Federal Reserve stabilizes the market, funds may flow back to risky assets, including Bitcoin, pushing its price higher.

In terms of strategy, we can focus on the rebound opportunities of Sui, XRP, Aave, Ondo, which are backed by capital, and Sol, Ray, JUP, etc., which have concepts and hot spots.

Every adjustment in the market may be preparing for a bigger change.