Author: @arndxt_xo
Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain
In this article, I will deeply analyze 8 key states of the crypto industry, extract important insights into market developments, and explore 6 trends that are shaping the future of the crypto industry.
We’ll discuss everything from the rise of AI agents, to the resurgence of memecoin, to Bitcoin’s consolidation, and Solana’s explosive performance.
Below, we break this down into eight key observations and six eye-catching trends that reveal key shifts in the market.
1. 8 states of the crypto industry
The following figure is a brief summary of the catalog.
1) The AI agent market is still small
While Virtuals (an AI agent startup platform) has seen its market cap surge to around $4 billion, the total market cap of AI agents themselves is only around $1 billion. While AI agents have been one of the hottest topics lately, the market still has plenty of room to grow as adoption and interest continue to rise.
2) The transaction volume of decentralized trading platforms (DEX) and centralized trading platforms (CEX) has surged
Perpetual DEX is particularly popular, and more and more projects have achieved multi-billion dollar valuations without relying on centralized trading platforms for listing. This is a big step towards a truly decentralized trading ecosystem, showing the broader prospects of DeFi.
3) Decentralized Science (DeSci) is gaining attention
Interest in decentralized science (DeSci) has grown significantly, attracting more attention from developers and researchers. While some narratives (such as Liquid Restaking, BRC-20, Modularity, L2, and RWA) have weakened, the rapid rise of DeSci may mean new opportunities for innovation.
4) Bitcoin supply continues to decline on trading platforms
The share of BTC (and ETH) on exchanges continues to decline, indicating that large and long-term holders are increasing their positions. Reduced supply on exchanges typically reduces selling pressure, driving bullish momentum in the market, especially for Bitcoin.
5) Programmable Bitcoin through sBTC on Stacks
Stacks has launched sBTC, a 1:1 Bitcoin-backed asset designed to unlock about $2 trillion in Bitcoin liquidity for DeFi. sBTC holders can earn base yields (e.g., about 5% of Bitcoin yields) and can borrow on platforms like Zest, with an annualized yield of about 6%, and more investment opportunities are about to open up. This provides a practical way to "put Bitcoin to work," which may drive more Bitcoin-centric DeFi innovations.
6) Stablecoin supply exceeds $200 billion, a record high
Stablecoin supply increases from $125 billion to $200 billion by early 2024. Annual stablecoin transaction volume has surpassed Visa, continuing to prove they are a trillion-dollar opportunity in the making.
7) Monthly Crypto Funding Growth
Although still below the peak in 2021, the investment capital raised has increased significantly. Historically, capital inflows usually occur at market tops, and the current growth trend shows that we are still in the early stages of the growth cycle and have not yet reached the extreme optimism of the market.
8) Additional: Solana’s Rapid Rise
In December 2024, Solana generated $43.1 billion in transaction fee revenue in a short period of time, more than all other L1s combined. Solana’s activity is comparable to Ethereum’s across multiple key metrics, and the upcoming Firedancer upgrade could further boost its scalability and network usage. It’s becoming increasingly clear that Ethereum and Solana can (and likely will) coexist in a multi-chain future.
2. 6 narrative trends
1) Bitcoin Consolidation and Potential Bottom
Bitcoin has been trading in a range of $94,000 to $95,000, with frequent dips below $94,000 and hitting $93,000, frustrating traders. Currently, the Bitcoin price is hovering around $97,000. The recent clustering around $94,000 suggests a possible bottom, but a retracement of $88,000 to $92,000 is still possible. If Bitcoin rises, altcoins are expected to perform better, similar to the 2021 bull run.
2) AI agents dominate market narratives
Key Performers: VIRTUAL, an AI agent startup on the Base platform, doubled from $2.5 billion to $5 billion in just 10 days. Notable Projects in the Ecosystem: AIXBT: a Twitter-based agent, doubled from $300 million to $600 million. GAME: Close to $400 million market cap. AI16Z (Solana-based): doubled from $1 billion to $2.5 billion. Other notable projects include $ZEREBRO ($800 million), $GRIFFAIN ($470 million), and $ARC ($400 million). AI agents are leading a new wave of innovation, attracting a lot of attention and investment.
3) The return of Memecoin and Murad Coin
Emerging star projects: $$SPX$$GIGA both hit record highs, with $SPX breaking through $1 billion and $GIGA reaching a market value of $800 million. KEKIUS: After Elon Musk changed his Twitter profile picture, the market value soared to $400 million, but soon fell back by 75%. Memecoins like WIF, POPCAT, and FWOG are likely to see a recovery.
4) Altcoin market highlights
Dinocoin: $$XRP (+15%) $$XLM (+35%) continue to perform strongly. Fantom to Sonic Network: $$FTM is rebranding $$S, which first fell sharply to $0.66 and then rebounded, which may indicate a potential long-term opportunity. CEXToken: BGB: Up 4x since December, now with a market cap of $7.5 billion. GT: Up 50% since December.
5) Noteworthy performers and new launches
Fuel Network ($FUEL): A new L2 network that shows strong potential. MORPHO: Continues to hit new highs. Other new coins worth noting: $$PEAQ$$USUAL (strong), VANA, XION (bottoming out).
6) Weird price fluctuations
UXLINK: Extremely volatile, with a sharp rise (+140%) followed by a rapid pullback. MOCA: After BN went public, it experienced a crazy pump and dump pattern.
3. Some new projects this week
Finally, here are some emerging projects. If you are interested, you can follow up and learn more about them.
@AlwaysBeenChoze
@marvellousdefi_
@Trong0322
@YashasEdu
@0xHvdes
@defi_ant_degen
@meekdonald_
@twindoges
@belizardd
@0xelonmoney
@0xAndrewMoh
@the_smart_ape
@andrewtalksdefi
@Foxi_xyz
@0xxbeacon
@Karamata2_2
@izu_crypt
@Mars_DeFi
@TheDeFiPlug
@cchungccc
@zordcrypt
@DeRonin_
@ahboyash
@Flowslikeosmo
@CryptoStreamHub
@stacy_muur
@crypthoem
@momochenming
@nihaovand
@0xcryptowizard
@Alvin0617
@0xWatell
@wsdxbz1
@Frogling68
@jackvi810
