Recently, BTC has once again broken through the $70,000 mark, and the market greed index has once again reached 80. Meme coins are often the clarion call for every bull market charge. For example, the price of $GOAT once rose by more than 10,000 times in 5 days. By analyzing the transaction data of the current TOP 25 Meme coins in the market, we have found several market characteristics and evolution trends worthy of attention.
Market stratification and liquidity stratification
In terms of the number of holders, SHIB, DOG, DOGE, MEME and DEGEN all have more than 800,000 addresses, of which SHIB is the leader with 1.51 million addresses, about 400,000 addresses higher than the second place DOG. At the same time, these projects also occupy a relatively high trading volume in the overall market.
The number of holding addresses of BONK and BRETT is over 700,000, while the number of holding addresses of PEPE and WIF are 320,000 and 180,000 respectively. However, it is worth noting that the number of holding addresses of these two projects increased by 3.02% and 4.86% in 30 days respectively, which is higher than all the Meme coins with the largest number of holders.
It is worth noting that according to bitsCrunch data, MEW and MIGGLES are the only two remaining Meme coins with more than 100,000 holding addresses, and MIGGLES has grown by 26.55% in the past 30 days. HIGHER, FLOKI, POPCAT, MOCHI, PONKE, MOODENG, MYRO and other tokens constitute the projects with 50,000-100,000 holding addresses, but the liquidity is relatively limited.
Market Sentiment Indicators: Price Volatility Analysis
Meme coin prices show a strong correlation with social hot events. According to the buy-sell comparison index, we found that TRUMP's index is 1.66 and the price has risen by 15.9%. This is highly correlated with the recent US political election events.
SHIB and WIF had the largest trading volumes in the past 7 days, at $70.2 billion and $67.3 billion respectively, ranking first, far exceeding the third and fourth places. By comparing trading volume and price fluctuations, it is found that the price fluctuations of projects with the highest trading volume (such as SHIB and DOGE) are relatively mild, while projects with smaller trading volumes tend to have larger fluctuations.
It can be seen that meme coins with large market capitalization are gradually acquiring the attribute of "value storage", and investors are more inclined to hold them. Many investors have adopted the strategy of "buying on dips", and the head effect will be further strengthened. Meme coins with small market capitalization are more likely to play the role of speculative tools, and are more speculative in the short term. Liquidity stratification will be more obvious, which may lead to intensified market polarization.
The address and price change ratios reflect immediate changes in liquidity. HIGHER and MOODENG saw a 2.32% and 1.98% increase in liquidity in the short term, respectively. This abnormal influx of liquidity often indicates possible price fluctuations.
In contrast, TURBO and PONKE saw liquidity outflows of -0.31% and -0.13% respectively. This slow but continuous liquidity outflow may suggest a gradual weakening of market confidence.
For investors, this means that they need to more carefully assess the liquidity risk of projects, rather than just focusing on price increases or decreases. In this rapidly evolving market, the importance of risk management may outweigh the pursuit of returns.
Transaction security data analysis
Judging from the current market data, authenticity verification and contract security assessment have become the primary links in investment decisions. There are often two possibilities behind the rampant manipulation of the Meme coin trading market: one is that the project party attempts to get on the DEX Screener trend list by creating trading activity; the other is that robots are manipulating the market. Therefore, it is necessary to identify real community interactions before trading.
Through the contract analysis of the coin holding addresses of the Meme coin project, several risk issues were found. One is the excessive concentration of authority, the second is the lack of liquidity lock, and the third is the large amount of overlap of coin holding addresses.
Specifically, a core address frequently interacts with multiple decentralized addresses. This pattern is particularly common in some emerging projects with abnormal 24-hour gains, and often indicates the risk of centralized control. Secondly, it is necessary to monitor whether there are complex fund transactions between multiple large holding addresses, which may be due to a large speculative group operating behind the scenes.
Therefore, for Memecoin novices, it is necessary to focus on the degree of diversified holdings, which is usually more common in mature projects such as SHIB or PEPE. But it is worth noting that even for such projects, the TOP100 addresses still control the vast majority of the supply.
Social influence analysis system
Generally speaking, a successful Meme coin project needs to be endorsed by at least 3-5 KOLs with more than 100,000 followers. But this indicator is changing.
At present, a high number of fans is no longer a decisive factor. For example, although HIGHER only received support from medium-sized KOLs, its ability to rise is stronger. This reflects that the market is shifting towards de-KOLization. The time distribution of KOL endorsements has an important impact on the trend of projects. Projects that obtain endorsements from multiple KOLs in a short period of time often perform worse than projects whose endorsements are dispersed in different periods.
Key indicator system
Based on the statistical analysis of successful cases, we have summarized the following key indicator system:
Trading volume indicator: A robust project should have an organic trading volume (excluding robot trading) of $500-1000 within 1 hour of launch. This figure is lower than the $1000-2000 threshold generally considered by the industry, but we have found that a lower initial threshold is conducive to the continued development of the project.
Market capitalization threshold: $100,000 is a key psychological threshold. Data shows that 87% of successful projects only started to achieve substantial growth after breaking through this market capitalization. But it is worth noting that this threshold varies in different tracks. For example, AI-themed Meme coins often require a higher starting market capitalization.
Supply distribution: The proportion of the founding team's holdings is an important indicator. Statistics show that when the founding team's holdings are less than 5%, the survival rate of the project increases significantly. This may be because lower team holdings reduce the risk of selling pressure and increase community confidence.
Risk early warning mechanism
First, basic indicator monitoring. Real-time tracking of basic data such as trading volume, position distribution, price fluctuations, etc., and setting abnormal fluctuation alarm thresholds.
Second, on-chain behavior analysis. Monitor the changes of large addresses, especially the interactions with known risky addresses. At the same time, track the changes in the liquidity pool and warn of possible selling behavior. At the same time, establish a dynamic stop-loss system and set different stop-loss ratios according to the different development stages of the project.
Third, monitor social signals, build a KOL database, and identify possible market manipulation signals. Pay special attention to abnormal activity on social media, pay attention to opportunities on new public chains, and diversify investment portfolios.
