Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Wenser (@wenser 2010)
At about 9:00 on November 11, according to OKX market data , the BTC price once surged to around $81,733, which also means that Bitcoin has officially stabilized at the $81,000 mark, entering the "80,000 era" that countless people dream of, and is only about 23% away from the "100,000 US dollar mark". Stimulated by many favorable factors such as Trump's successful victory in the US presidential election, the continuous inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and the continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin has once again begun its "journey to the stars and the sea."
Odaily Planet Daily will sort out market-related views in this article for readers' reference.
National level: The situation is very good, Trump's coming to power has led to Bitcoin becoming a strategic reserve
In the previous article "Bitcoin hits a new record high, is $75,000 the starting point of a big bull market?" , we mentioned that whether Trump can be elected will have an important impact on the cryptocurrency market in the following aspects:
Cryptocurrency regulatory attitude;
CBDC digital dollar creation;
Bitcoin strategic reserve;
The selection of candidates for key government positions, including the SEC chairman;
The direction of U.S. political and economic policies, etc.
Among them, the biggest impact in the short term is the Bitcoin strategic reserve; in the long run, encryption regulation and a series of key positions in government departments such as the SEC chairman will continue to affect the attitude of the United States and even the world towards the cryptocurrency industry. According to analysis by multiple institutions and industry insiders, as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, the Bitcoin national strategic reserve may become the choice of more and more sovereign countries.
Trump's election plans to include BTC in the national strategic reserve: good news for BTC
With the election of Trump, the sentiment of the global cryptocurrency market has changed significantly. Many experts generally believe that Trump's insistence on embracing BTC will have a positive impact on BTC and is expected to promote its adoption as a national strategic reserve.
Under Trump's leadership, the crypto market will return to its preference for BTC's value storage properties . Many experts believe that Trump's election is undoubtedly a shot in the arm for the cryptocurrency market, led by BTC.
Bitcoin Magazine CEO: A sovereign state is quietly increasing its holdings of Bitcoin and has become one of the top five holders
David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine and one of Trump's campaign crypto aides, recently discussed the possibility that an unnamed sovereign nation is quietly buying Bitcoin. He said : "At least one country has been actively buying Bitcoin and is now a top five holder. Hopefully we'll hear from them soon."
Some community users suggested Qatar and Saudi Arabia might be the unnamed countries Bailey was referring to, while he said it was not China, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Finland or Georgia.
German MP Joana Cotar: If the United States uses BTC as a strategic reserve, European countries will all be FOMO
According to Bitcoin Magazine, German parliament member Joana Cotar said , “If the United States buys Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, then I think all European countries will have FOMO.”
Fundstrat Co-founder: BTC may reach $100,000 this year and become a treasury reserve asset to make up for the US deficit
Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat, said in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin could become a "treasury reserve asset" to help make up for the U.S. deficit, and that Bitcoin could still reach $100,000 this year, with plenty of room for growth.
Bitcoin's strongest holders at the national level: El Salvador and Bhutan
According to The Bitcoin Office in El Salvador, El Salvador is still purchasing 1 BTC every day. As of November 11, its Bitcoin holdings reached 5,930.77 BTC, with a market value of approximately US$480 million.
At the same time, the Kingdom of Bhutan is actively mining Bitcoin. Relevant data shows that the Kingdom of Bhutan's weekly Bitcoin mining output is about 55 to 75 Bitcoins, worth about $3.6 million to $4.9 million. Previously, on October 29, when the BTC price hit $71,000, 929 BTC were transferred to Binance , equivalent to about $66.12 million. Currently, according to data from the Arkham website , the Kingdom of Bhutan holds 12,562 BTC (worth about $1.02 billion).
Institutional level: Investor interest is growing, and industry giants are still increasing their holdings
At the same time, as the news of Trump's election continued to spread, investor interest at the institutional level continued to increase, becoming the main driving force behind the new high in Bitcoin prices.
Bloomberg ETF analyst: Due to the Trump effect, the US Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.4 billion on November 7
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote that the US Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.4 billion in funds on July 7, of which BlackRock IBIT attracted $1.1 billion. The US Bitcoin ETF attracted $6.7 billion last month and $25.5 billion so far this year, and is now 93% away from surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto's goal of 1.1 million bitcoins.
President of The ETF Store: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Asset Size Exceeds Its Gold ETF
According to Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, last Friday, the asset size of BlackRock's Bitcoin exchange-traded fund iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) exceeded that of its gold exchange-traded fund iShares Gold ETF (IAU), and this was achieved in just 10 months. iShares Gold ETF (IAU) is a gold exchange-traded fund launched by BlackRock in January 2005.
BTC ETF ＞ Gold ETF
MicroStrategy founder: Will continue to increase BTC holdings
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor hinted that he may continue to increase his BTC holdings. He said : "I think there needs to be more 'green dots' on the saylortracker website." (Odaily Planet Daily Note: This website is a website for tracking MicroStrategy's purchase of Bitcoin positions. The green dot means the purchase of BTC.)
According to previous news, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings had unrealized profits of over US$10 billion.
VanEck CEO: BTC's potential price is $300,000 per coin
VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck previously said in an interview that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high on Friday, and then the BTC price broke through $77,000 for the first time.
When asked if he thinks Bitcoin will hit $100,000, he said: "Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high - if it hits a new all-time high today, I think it will go up further. My basic assumption is that the overall value of Bitcoin will eventually be half the value of all outstanding gold, so its potential price is about $300,000. Individual investors are indeed pouring into Bitcoin ETFs."
Gemini Lianchuang: Bitcoin's rise to $80,000 is driven by stable institutional ETF demand, not retail FOMO
Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss said that Bitcoin’s move to $80,000 was primarily driven by sustained institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs, rather than retail investor activity. He believes that this “sticky” demand from institutional investors is a sign of long-term bullish sentiment and that the current market cycle is still in its early stages.
Winklevoss said: "Bitcoin's path to $80,000 is paved with steady ETF demand. Not retail FOMO. No fanfare. People are buying ETFs, not selling them. This is sticky HODL-style capital. The floor price keeps rising, we just won the coin toss, the game hasn't really started yet."
Bitwise CEO: Bitcoin price rise will not trigger similar concerns about overvaluation as stocks
Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise Invest, said bitcoin hit an all-time high this week but has not sparked the same concerns about overvaluation that stocks have. "Bitcoin is different," he said, explaining that when a company's stock "goes up, the price-to-earnings ratio goes up, and at some point people say 'this is overvalued' and then they become less interested until the price goes down."
Horsley added that in the absence of the same financial performance metrics, “when the price of Bitcoin goes up, people will think it’s more likely to succeed and therefore more valuable, so it’s likely to go up further.”
CoinShares Research Director: BTC only needs to rise by about 33% to reach $100,000, accounting for only 10% of the gold market share
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, previously expressed the view that there are four catalysts that will drive future Bitcoin prices up, namely: changes in the leadership of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, cryptocurrency-friendly regulation, further adoption of cryptocurrency by large companies, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. James Butterfill further explained that Bitcoin's rise to $100,000 means that its price still has 33% room for growth, and that $100,000 Bitcoin "doesn't sound so unreasonable" because its market value is equivalent to "only 10% of the gold market share", and Trump's victory and Republican control of the Senate may make it easier to promote "the expected relaxed regulatory framework", so it should be possible.
Galaxy Research Director: Bitcoin hits record highs several times this week, but does not show any signs of "overheating"
Bitcoin has hit record highs several times but has not shown any signs of being "overheated," and several analysts have pointed out that some fundamental factors indicate that Bitcoin may rise further. "From a fundamental perspective, the market does not appear overheated," said Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, in a market report. Aurelie Barthere, an analyst at crypto analysis firm Nansen, expressed a similar view. "Bitcoin's breakout of all-time highs on high trading volume is a clear signal of continued positive momentum after the election."
Metaplanet's share price has risen by more than 1,000% this year, becoming the best performing Japanese stock
Simon Gerovich, CEO of Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, previously said that the company's adoption of Bitcoin strategy has caused its stock price to rise by about 1,017% so far this year, making it the best performing Japanese stock in 2024. The company launched its Bitcoin plan in April and has become the second largest corporate Bitcoin holder in Asia, second only to Boyaa Interactive. According to Yahoo Finance data, its stock price has risen 740% in six months, from $190 in April to $1,596 at the close of Friday.
Standard Chartered Bank: Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the end of this year after Trump wins the election
Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank, previously said that if Trump wins the election, the price of Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the end of this year and $200,000 by the end of 2025, a forecast that echoes estimates made earlier this month by analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein.
It can be seen that when countless TradFi asset management giants, listed companies and Bitcoin reserve strategy executors enter the game, their positions are closely linked to the cryptocurrency industry.
Industry insiders: Risks still exist, holding is still the best choice
Although the market greed index has jumped rapidly, in the context of excessive enthusiasm and FOMO, many crypto analysts and industry builders have given some different opinions. The following is a list of representative opinions:
CZ: As Bitcoin continues to hit record highs, investors should properly manage risks
CZ previously wrote that as Bitcoin continues to hit record highs, investors also need to engage in proper risk management. There will be many more troughs (and highs) in the future, and you should make sure you can handle them, control your greed, and don't put all your eggs in one basket.
CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin holders are advised to gradually sell, warning of the risks of buying full positions
Ki Young Ju, CEO of crypto analysis platform CryptoQuant, wrote on Thursday that new investors tend to hold Bitcoin in a bear market and change hands about two years after experiencing losses when the market stabilizes. He believes that now is the time for this switch, and Bitcoin may rise another 30-40% from the current level, but will not repeat the 368% increase from $16,000. He suggested that investors consider selling gradually instead of continuing to "buy all positions."
On November 10, perhaps stimulated by the new high price of Bitcoin, it once again issued an article stating : "Bitcoin has just entered the price discovery stage." At the same time, it also issued an article today warning that the price of Bitcoin may be slightly lower than US$59,000 at the end of the year, and pointed out that the overheated futures market is one of the main reasons for the year-end plunge.
Has Bitcoin entered the value discovery stage?
Presto Research Analyst: $100,000 Will Be Bitcoin’s Next “Interest Level”
Min Jung, investment analyst at Presto Research, said traders are enthusiastic about the prospects of Bitcoin. "In the short term, 100k will be the next major interest level due to the symbolic nature of the number and the number change. The United States may eventually add Bitcoin to its balance sheet - perhaps as part of a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' or similar assets. With this in mind, our target is around the $110,000 range."
It can be seen that despite certain risks, some people in the industry remain cautious about the current overheated market.
Retail investor trends: New investors are taking action, while mature investors are still increasing their holdings
Under the influence of various factors, individual retail investors are also "rushing into the market", and the "Trump effect" may continue to affect the participation of investors in the cryptocurrency industry.
Bitcoin Google searches surge after Trump wins election, may indicate new investors entering the market
Market observers said that the surge in Bitcoin Google searches after Trump won the election indicated that retail investors were more interested in digital assets. Ryan Chow, co-founder of Solv Protocol, said that Trump's victory in the election was "the main catalyst to launch the next bull market." Crypto macro analyst Noelle Acheson said, "In general, retail investors tend to be 'latecomers' because they are influenced by price-related headlines and widespread social attention. Due to the absence of retail investors, market observers can speculate that the crypto cycle is in its early stages, and when retail investors start to 'pile in', we will know that we are close to the peak of hype."
IntoTheBlock: Bitcoin's daily large transaction volume surges to $90 billion after the US election
According to IntoTheBlock, after the US election, the volume of large Bitcoin transactions surged, reaching a peak of US$90 billion on November 6, indicating a significant increase in whale activity.
The author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad": Currently holds 73 Bitcoins and plans to hold 100 in a year
Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, said in a post that he bought his first Bitcoin at $6,000 and will continue to buy at $76,000. He currently holds 73 Bitcoins and plans to hold 100 Bitcoins in a year.
Opinion: Bitcoin price could reach $100,000 by January 2025, when Trump takes office
Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at cryptocurrency custodian Copper.co, believes that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the time Trump takes office on January 20, 2025, adding that these gains “have come against the backdrop of a weaker dollar, which is different from today’s environment of stronger dollar.” Given that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds currently hold about 1.1 million Bitcoins, momentum could be positive in the coming months.
In addition, Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, said that although it is difficult to predict the price of Bitcoin, the target of $100,000 in a few months "does not seem too far-fetched", adding: "Given the bullish momentum, coupled with the fact that the economy has avoided a recession, we expect Bitcoin to have limited downside now. The target of $100,000 looks very reasonable."
Overall, individual retail investors remain optimistic about the market outlook, and the continued wealth-creating effect or hot market is expected to attract new investors to continue to join.
Conclusion: BTC price breaking through 100,000 will be a new starting point, but risk control is required
From the perspective of the country, the institution and the individual, as Bitcoin stabilizes at the 80,000 mark, it is only a matter of time before its price breaks through 100,000. However, in the process, the market may experience several small adjustments. After Trump officially takes office in January next year, the strategic reserve of Bitcoin and a series of crypto-friendly regulatory measures are worth looking forward to.
Before that, perhaps as Bitcoin analyst Tuur Demeester said before : "Bitcoin's rise to $79,000, a new high, is just the beginning, and it's time to keep doing the right thing and hold on. No need to take any rash actions, HODLing will do the work for you."
