PANews reported on March 21 that 10x Research published an article on the X platform saying that, as expected, the Fed lowered its economic growth forecast and slightly slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction (QT). Although this move is not as dovish as the market hoped, it still tends to be dovish. Fed Chairman Powell reinforced this tone in his post-meeting press conference, emphasizing that the recent rise in inflation may be temporary, while long-term inflation expectations remain solid. This suggests that the Fed may remain on hold in the coming months. By acknowledging weak economic growth while downplaying inflation concerns, the Fed hinted that a rate cut is increasingly likely.
Our base case is that the Fed will keep rates unchanged until September, while the announced QT slowdown will provide some support. However, persistent risks may limit the upside potential of risk assets after the initial rebound. Traders should distinguish between short-term tactical bullish setups and a more cautious medium-term outlook. As long as Bitcoin remains below the $90,000-92,000 resistance zone, a significant hurdle according to multiple indicators, the broader market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase.
Large investors are likely to remain on the sidelines ahead of Trump’s expected tariff announcement on April 2 and the start of the U.S. corporate earnings season around April 11, when major banks begin reporting. There is little evidence that retail traders are re-entering the market or viewing Powell’s recent dovish comments as a buying opportunity. Market structure indicators remain subdued, suggesting that this rally is unlikely to gain significant momentum or return Bitcoin to the broader bullish sentiment.
