Will SBF be pardoned by the President and released from prison early?

As BeInCrypto reported earlier, former FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has attracted much attention for his early release from prison.

However, tweets from Musk and others indicate that this is very likely.

So, what are the chances that the FTX founder will be out of prison less than a year after his conviction?

In 2020, at the height of FTX’s career, Sam Bankman-Fried donated $5.2 million to a pro-Biden super PAC. He is the second-largest individual donor to the Democratic Party after Michael Bloomberg.

Historically, political donors and their affiliates have had a huge advantage themselves when it comes to convictions and pardons.

Take Marc Rich as an example, the "notorious" oil trader evaded at least $50 million in taxes as early as 2021. However, Rich was pardoned on the last day of Clinton's term.

The pardon is controversial because Rich's ex-wife Denise is a major donor to the Democratic Party, making large donations to Clinton's presidential library and the Democratic National Committee.

Likewise, Paul Pogue is another convicted tax fraudster who was pardoned by Trump in 2020 .

The report said this was because Pogue's family donated more than $200,000 to Trump's campaign.

Kalshi, a prediction market researcher, posted on X: “Sam Bankman-Fried used millions of stolen client funds to fund political campaigns.”

"SBF donated almost all of his money to the Democratic Party (98%), making him the second largest donor to the Democratic Party, and now there is a 12% chance that Biden will pardon him."

Controversy over Sam Bankman-Fried's potential pardon by Biden is normal given historical cases where political donors are more likely to receive clemency .

Additionally, Biden pardoned Michael Conahan last week.

Conahan was sentenced to 17 years in prison for his role in the "child-for-money" scandal, in which he accepted bribes from private juvenile detention centers in exchange for sending children to those centers, often for minor crimes.

This is concrete proof that Biden may not shy away from pardoning major criminals.

The most contentious point in Bankman-Fried's trial was the government's omission of charges related to his campaign finances .

Initially, Bankman-Fried faced eight criminal charges, including conspiracy to defraud the United States and violating campaign finance laws.

However, the campaign finance charge was dropped in July 2023.

Initially, the charges against Bankman-Fried were dropped due to a treaty obligation of the Bahamas. Essentially, the Bahamian government objected to the inclusion of this particular charge in the extradition request.

However, prosecutors claimed that separate trials would be held for these charges.

The second trial was intended to deal with the dropped campaign finance charges, as well as some charges related to bribery and operating an unlicensed money transmitting business.

However, in December 2023, prosecutors announced that there would not be a second trial because the evidence in the second trial would largely repeat what had already been presented in the first trial.

Earlier this year, Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison for multiple counts of wire fraud and other charges.

However, many felt the sentence was too light given the scale and impact of his crimes.

The collapse of FTX caused customers and creditors to lose more than $16 billion, and the cold winter of Crypto assets also caused the market to lose more than $100 billion . Therefore, as one of the biggest financial scandals in US history, many people believe that this sentence is lenient.

“Sam Bankman-Fried and his associates are hoping to receive a pardon or commutation of sentence in exchange for campaign contributions they stole from FTX investors,” wrote prominent attorney Richard W. Painter. “Any president who agrees to do this should be impeached for bribery.”

Prosecutors had initially asked for a 50-year sentence, arguing that Sam Bankman-Fried's crimes were "historic" in their scope and severity.

Prosecutors highlighted the significant financial losses suffered by FTX customers and the erosion of public trust in the crypto asset market.

In addition, Caroline Ellison, who actively collected customer funds from FTX and Bankman-Friend, was sentenced to only 2 years in prison due to her cooperation with prosecutors .

Most surprisingly, Gary Wang, the backdoor code writer who provided Alameda with unlimited credit, avoided jail time altogether.

Given these facts, and the fact that critics believe the sentence is too lenient, there is a clear expectation in the crypto asset industry that Sam Bankman-Fried may receive leniency.

It is important to note, however, that the link between donations and pardons is not always consistent .

The president may grant a pardon for other reasons, and it would be difficult to definitively prove that the donation was the sole or primary motivating factor.

But what is certain is that the existence of cases where wealthy people have used political donations to get out of legal disputes is bound to raise ethical concerns.