By: David Nage, Venture Capital PM ARCA

Compiled by: Shaofaye123, Foresight News

Nvidia’s CEO said: “The era of AI agentics has arrived,” calling the emerging field a “multi-trillion dollar opportunity.”

Even before Huang’s remarks, user interest in the fourth quarter of 2024 had already shifted to Web3 AI agents, which were gradually developing using the infrastructure and provided frameworks of Web3 and AI.

On January 2, the market capitalizations of various Web3 AI agents achieved significant breakthroughs: Ai16zDAO reached a market capitalization of $2.6 billion through Eliza's framework, and Virtuals reached a market capitalization of $5 billion through GAME. Four days later, ARC reached a market capitalization of $450 million through RIG and Zerebro reached a market capitalization of $783 million through Zerepy and other frameworks. On January 12, the total market capitalization of Solana agents among the 1,210 agents of the Cookie framework reached $7.5 billion, and Base reached $5.5 billion; the total market capitalization has exceeded $13 billion.

Considering the trillion-dollar business opportunity and the growth of the field so far, what will be the market value of Web3 AI agents in the future? At the same time, the market share of traditional AI companies (such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, etc.) also needs to be taken into consideration to analyze the share that Web3 AI agents may occupy and the development time.

Artificial Intelligence Technology Adoption Analysis

Since the birth of email, it took 35 years for 1 billion people to have an email address. ChatGPT has nearly 200 million monthly active users (MAU) since its launch in November 2022. You can refer to the following technology adoption curve:

In the trillion-dollar AI agency race, how much can Web3 take up?

There are currently approximately 4.8 billion unique email addresses in the world, and ChatGPT users account for approximately 4.2%, even though its growth rate was slowed down in the early stages due to factors such as language limitations and computing resources.

Based on the current rate of approximately 14 million new users per month, if growth were to double (thanks to wider access, competition, etc.) to 28.6 million new users per month, the total number of new users over the next 24 months would be:

28.6 million × 24 months ≈ 686M

Combined with the existing 200 million users, the total number of ChatGPT users is expected to be close to 886 million by 2026.

Assume that by 2026:

Paying users: 886M × 0.10 (conversion rate) = 88.6M paying users

Monthly revenue: 88.6 million × 20 = $1.77 billion/month

Annual revenue: 1.77 billion × 12 = 21.24 billion USD/year

If a 5x price-to-sales ratio (P/S Ratio) is used to calculate the market value and the premium multiple is used as a reference, this will bring ChatGPT's market value to about $100 billion (the latest round of private market valuation is $157 billion). Huang Renxun said that AI agents may be a trillion-dollar business opportunity. Assuming ChatGPT occupies 15% of the total market size, this still leaves a market space of $850 billion waiting to be captured.

The question then is: how much market share will Web3 AI agents be able to capture in this?

Web3 Market Share Analysis

We can apply the “Bitcoin to Gold Ratio” to the AI agent market. Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap is approximately 10.9% of the total gold market cap. If Web3 AI agents can capture a market share similar to the Bitcoin/Gold Ratio:

$850 billion × 10.9% = $92.65 billion (potential size of the Web3 AI agent market).

However, there are a few factors that may suggest that the market share of Web3 AI agents may be higher:

Advantages of Web3 Proxy:

  • Decentralized Infrastructure: The infrastructure for decentralized networks already exists and can be directly utilized.
  • Token incentive mechanism: Promote user and developer participation through tokenized reward mechanism.
  • Smart contract automation: Efficient automated operations are achieved through smart contracts.
  • Built-in payment function: The payment function in the Web3 ecosystem has been seamlessly integrated and can be used directly.
  • Data sovereignty and ownership: Users can truly own and control their own data.

Unique capabilities of Web3 Proxy:

  • Tokenized ownership of agents: Allows users to hold ownership of agents through tokens.
  • DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) Integration: Seamlessly integrate with DAO to achieve community-driven management and decision-making.
  • Composability with DeFi: Web3 agents can seamlessly integrate with decentralized financial applications to expand their functionality and value.

Given these unique advantages of Web3 AI agents, their market share may be higher than Bitcoin’s ratio to gold. If we assume the following three scenarios:

  • Low: 10.9% (Bitcoin/gold ratio) = $92.65 billion
  • Medium: 20% = $170 billion
  • High estimate: 30% = $255 billion

The potential of the Web3 proxy market may be far greater than this, especially if these advantages are further explored and fully utilized.

Conclusion

The rise of web3 AI agents represents the intersection of two transformative technologies.

ChatGPT has reached 200 million monthly active users in just two years, and this rapid growth curve provides an important reference benchmark for the accelerated adoption of AI technology. Taking the 10.9% of the "Bitcoin to Gold Market Cap Ratio" as a conservative baseline and applying it to the estimated $850 billion AI agent market opportunity (excluding ChatGPT's share), the market size of Web3 AI agents could reach $92.65 billion. Given the inherent advantages of web3, such as decentralized infrastructure, token-based incentives, smart contract automation, and built-in payment systems, its market share could be higher. A 20% market share is a reasonable expectation that would support a $170 billion market size.

Furthermore, Web3 agents’ unique capabilities in tokenized agent ownership, DAO integration, and composability with DeFi allow them to take full advantage of the rapid adoption of AI technology and the existing infrastructure of blockchain technology. Therefore, this area has the potential to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the intersection of AI and blockchain technology.