PANews reported on November 5 that QCP Capital, a crypto investment institution in Singapore, said in an article that in the stock market, bond market and cryptocurrency market, as the most stalemate presidential election in US history is about to kick off, the market's anxiety is becoming more and more obvious. "Trump trading" (i.e. betting on a stronger dollar, rising cryptocurrencies and rising Treasury yields) has gradually heated up on the eve of the election, thanks to Trump's leading position in the prediction market. However, if Harris ultimately wins, these gains may be quickly wiped out, causing the market to fluctuate violently overnight. The cryptocurrency market currently expects Bitcoin spot prices to fluctuate by about 3.5% on election night. But traders may underestimate the risks after the election: the lack of volatility premium after November 8 suggests that the market expects a quick election result, but may underestimate the impact of potential delays or controversial results.
The results of the congressional elections are equally important, and may even have the same influence as the presidential election. If the Republicans win big, it may mean higher fiscal deficits in the future, prompting the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance - which is undoubtedly a bad situation for risk assets. On the other hand, if the legislature is divided, the market may be more stable and volatility will gradually subside.
Currently, the options market shows a balance between calls and puts. There has been a lot of buying in the past few days for both the upper calls and the lower puts. However, Bitcoin is still seen as part of the "Trump trade". On Monday, the spot price of Bitcoin fell as the spot ETF saw a large outflow of funds, which coincided with the results of a poll that showed Harris with a narrow lead in Iowa. As the election results are released tomorrow, the spot price of Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate wildly.
