Author: Zuo Ye
Let the little whale fly, and fly out a $TRUMP
We drink from the golden cup together and never spare each other with swords. Everyone regards Trump and Milley as an international right-wing alliance, but the way they have successively issued currencies makes this convertible alliance look quite abstract, "not like a monarch at first sight."
Then on Valentine's Day, Trump offered reciprocal tariffs to the whole world, but they were obviously discounted. It was clearly not until April that they would actually take effect, but he released the news in advance and waited for all parties to negotiate the terms themselves, directly making up the situation out of thin air.
Faced with Mile's international fraud, no one had thought that Trump would issue his own currency. So on Mile's side, people forgot the lesson of the Central African President's celebrity currency day trip. Or because Mile advocated liberalism and had a large audience in the currency circle, in the end, they didn't expect that the people who love you would hurt you the most.
Back to the impact of DeepSeek, currently companies in China, the United States and Europe are all connecting to it. The most difficult thing to collapse is that American capitalists call on the US government to impose sanctions and bans. This is actually very uncapitalist and is closer to industrial policy, which is the opposite of Tiangang.
Although no one expected DS to launch an open source + cheap technology surprise attack, because the stereotype has always been that the domestic industry is not good at open source and originality, but only good at plagiarism and implementation, but this time it has basically changed the existing impression. Instead, OpenAI may re-select the open source route under the influence.
Essentially, because the United States is in fact deindustrialized, only the high valuation of the financial industry maintains the international purchasing power of the dollar, resulting in all current technologies and products eventually becoming financial miracles to prove the superiority of the United States.
From DeepSeek to reciprocal tariffs, we can predict Trump’s main trends in the next four years. There is no doubt that the general direction is financialization, and re-industrialization is impossible. However, there is the courage to make money in the name of re-industry, and it is very big.
Because DeepSeek has come, AI narrative has temporarily failed
In the DeepSeek incident, Trump first praised, then banned, and then praised again, performing a hat trick. However, in the latest news from Bloomberg, the valuation of DeepSeek is between 1 billion and 155 billion, which is about half of OpenAI's valuation, which can be regarded as a Bloomberg valuation system.
However, with American capital rushing in, DeepSeek will seriously interfere with Trump's thinking by emphasizing the principle of "free for everyone", because Trump's reciprocal tariff policy is essentially a political weapon rather than an economic means.
In Trump's view, because other countries can enjoy "most favored nation" treatment, the United States needs to lower tariffs on foreign products entering the United States, but American products entering other countries will face higher tariffs.
But in fact, this is the inevitable consequence of the United States' choice of financial country building and the internationalization of the US dollar. If the United States does not maintain a trade deficit position, other countries will not be able to obtain US dollars for transactions. In view of this, combined with the latest statement of the Federal Reserve, we will need to see Powell's management of expectations on interest rate hikes and cuts for quite some time. But in reality, it will be like the housing prices in the big Eastern country, which can neither rise nor fall.
Back to the subsequent price prediction of Web3, we need to build the following four basic cognitions, otherwise it will feel that Meme and BNB Chain will be the main theme in the future, but this is not the case at all:
- The U.S. stock market needs to find a new support point. The cryptocurrency market will say what the U.S. stock market says. The cryptocurrency market does not have an independent market.
- Funds are now all in various ETFs, and there is basically no outflow of funds from the circle, but this is mainly because there is no technical narrative support. Pure Meme PVP cannot attract long-term funds to participate in the game;
- Next, let’s look at US stocks, ETFs, DeepSeek’s response (new AI algorithms, new directions for embodied intelligence, new directions for biotechnology), Ondo+ BlackRock, the government, and traditional finance or government blockchain
As Nvidia's market value returned to 3 trillion, the US stock market has basically recovered from the DeepSeek impact. Both GPT and Google have released new products, but the market response has been mediocre. Although they have managed to get through now, they will need to find new hot spots to save the AI and computing power valuation levers.
Overall, I still have a positive attitude towards the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency circle. Musk is putting government information and funds on the chain. If it is on Ethereum or Solana, it will be a new super market. If you make a consortium chain yourself, then there will be nothing fun.
Web3 will not fall because of Meme
Under the impact of DeepSeek, the Web3 AI Agent narrative has reached a stage of bankruptcy. After the Meme PVP mechanism was drained of all liquidity by the $TRUMP/MELANIA/LIBRA triple attack, it has now entered a boring second-hand time stage.
CZ still maintains influence on Binance, such as TST listing on Binance and criticizing Binance's listing policy, but after all, under the supervision of the US Department of Justice, Binance, Labs and BNB Chain are completely separated, and the process from investment, incubation to listing is broken up. I have always believed that Binance's regulation is the real reason for the bankruptcy of the VC coin narrative, or at least the starting point for the domino effect.
Binance has spent several years mastering the entire process of chip creation and final distribution. The strongest liquidity leads to the largest coin listing increase, and the largest coin listing increase leads to the project party being willing to give a discount to Labs and BNB holders. This process continues to cycle and ultimately creates the strongest Web3 wealth group.
But now these conditions no longer exist:
- BN, BN Labs and BNB Chain are actually separated, and the project owners of BNB Chain and Labs cannot obtain more reliable coin listing commitments;
- With the strong rise of DEX, BN main site and other CEX are at risk of becoming the only way for token exit. Simply improving the listing process is only a temporary solution.
- The hidden concern of VC coins is the temporary bankruptcy of the technical narrative, and it is difficult to maintain long-term effects on the BNB Chain that dominates Meme/DeSci/AI Agent.
However, there is no need to worry too much. Web3 has no other advantages, and its robustness is as strong as ever. The real impact will be that more Altcoin ETFs will be gradually passed after BTC/ETH, and will continue to absorb the liquidity that should have entered the PVP circle. At a time when VC coins and Meme coins cannot be maintained, the big question is where the currency circle will go.
In other words, you don’t have to stick to the existing high FDV, low liquidity model of VC coins, and you can’t stop playing with Meme and just do Building honestly, but you have to have new ideas. Judging from the lessons of the two crises in 2017/2021, Web3 will always find a new paradigm, but anyone who holds on to the past will be left behind.
Under the CEX crisis represented by Binance, the opportunity for DEX has actually arrived, but Jupiter's performance and controversy, although Solana is faster, it is indeed not as stable as the ETH ecosystem. Before February, the FUD ETH sentiment had reached its peak. Everything has its limits, and the currency circle is changing too fast, which makes people overly anxious, but it is really unnecessary.
Conclusion
It is natural to get rid of the old and bring in the new. At a time when macroeconomic policies are full of uncertainty, the continuous construction of DEX has proved to us that CEX, which was once considered a necessary and irreplaceable evil, can really be challenged. This time it is indeed not a technology-driven innovation like ETH ZK L2, but more of a combination of product ideas and existing technologies. However, the success of DeepSeek has proved that engineering progress is a necessary path for the large-scale diffusion of technology.
BTC, which was once owned by the royal family, now belongs to ordinary people.
