By Alexander Osipovich, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Compiled by: zhouzhou, BlockBeats
Editor's note: This article describes a French trader who calls himself Théo, who bet on Trump's victory on the prediction market Polymarket, bet more than $30 million, expecting Trump to win by a large margin. Théo insisted that he had no political motives and was only trying to make money, but because of the huge amount of money, he could hardly withdraw these bets and took huge risks.
The following is the original content (for easier reading and understanding, the original content has been reorganized):
The mysterious man who bet more than $30 million on Trump's victory said: "I'm not trying to manipulate the US election"
The mysterious man who bet more than $30 million on Trump's victory wants the outside world to know that he has no intention of manipulating the US election. "My goal is just to make money," the man who calls himself "Théo" said in a Zoom interview with a reporter from the Wall Street Journal earlier this week. He introduced himself as a Frenchman who lived in the United States and previously worked as a trader at several banks.
Théo’s huge bets on Polymarket, a prediction market not open to Americans, have attracted widespread attention. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that four accounts on the platform systematically bought bets on Trump’s victory, raising the odds that Trump would defeat Vice President Kamala Harris. Blockchain data showed that the funds of these accounts all came from the same cryptocurrency exchange, which has sparked heated discussions about the motives of the “Trump whale” behind it.
Last week, New York-based Polymarket said it had contacted the "Trump whale" and launched an investigation into the bet. The company said the bet was placed by a French financial industry professional with extensive trading experience.
Former President Trump's shadow is reflected on an American flag during a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters)
Trump's projection on the American flag: A giant whale in the shadow
“Based on our investigation, we learned that this individual took a directional position based on his personal views on the election,” Polymarket said in a statement. The details of Polymarket’s statement matched Théo’s self-description, and he confirmed that he had communicated with members of Polymarket’s legal and compliance team.
Election observers are now carefully analyzing various data in an attempt to predict the outcome of what is considered to be the most intense and closest US presidential election in history. Prediction markets, as a platform that allows people to bet on various potential events, have become one of the ways to predict election results. Historical studies have shown that the candidate with the highest winning rate in the prediction market before the election day usually wins the White House.
However, the emergence of the “Trump Whale” exposes the limitations of the current prediction market: despite a surge in Polymarket’s trading volume this year, the market is still relatively small and can still be easily manipulated by a single investor with deep pockets and a clear attitude through multi-million dollar bets.
Théo: The mysterious bet of an anonymous whale
After an article about his bet was published on October 18, Théo contacted the Wall Street Journal by email. To prove that he was indeed a "Trump whale" on Polymarket, the newspaper asked him to place a bet on the platform on whether Taylor Swift would announce her pregnancy in 2024 - one of many small non-political bets on the platform. A few minutes later, the Polymarket website showed that an account named "Theo4" had indeed placed a small bet on Swift's pregnancy.
In a Zoom call, Théo, wearing a gray Nike sweater, a neatly trimmed short beard and speaking slightly accented English, said he made the bet decision after analyzing polls that underestimated Trump's support, and he denied speculation that he was creating Trump momentum through the bet.
Théo declined to give his real name, and the Journal was unable to verify all the details of his story. Although he claimed the bets were made with his own funds, it was impossible to determine their authenticity or rule out any ties to any political organization or Trump allies.
“I have absolutely no political agenda,” Théo wrote in the initial email.
Théo said he did not want to be named because his friends and children were unaware of his wealth and he did not want them to know about his bet on Trump. He described himself as a sophisticated financial investor willing to risk tens of millions of dollars on high-conviction trades, but political bets were new territory for him.
Théo said he started looking at US polling data earlier this year and found that many polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump's support. He believes that if Trump exceeds expectations again this year, he will defeat Kamala Harris. Théo also mentioned the "shy Trump supporter effect" - that some voters are reluctant to tell pollsters that they support Trump.
"I know a lot of Americans who will vote for Trump and won't tell you." Théo was dismissive of the adjustments made by pollsters to correct questions in 2016 and 2020, saying he "didn't see any substantive changes."
Théo's huge bet on Trump: confidence and concerns
Over a two-week period, Théo sent dozens of emails to Wall Street Journal reporters criticizing mainstream media polls that he believed were biased in Harris’ favor. In a Zoom call, he claimed that Democratic-backed media were paving the way for social unrest by hyping a tight race, even as he expected a landslide victory for Trump.
Théo said he was surprised by the attention to his trading, and he began making low-key bets in August, buying millions of dollars in Trump win contracts using the username Fredi9999. At the time, Trump and Harris' odds on Polymarket were roughly even.
To avoid wild price swings, Théo spread his bets over multiple days. However, as his bets grew, Théo noticed that other traders would avoid quotes when buying Fredi9999, making it difficult for him to bet at the ideal price. So he created three more accounts in September and October to cover up his buying behavior.
If Trump wins and sweeps the election as he expects, Théo could make more than $80 million, doubling his bets. His main bet is that Trump wins the electoral vote, and he’s betting millions more on Trump winning the popular vote — a scenario many observers consider unlikely. He’s also betting on Trump winning in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
If Harris wins the election, Théo could lose the vast majority of his $30 million — the bulk of his liquid assets.
Because of his huge position in Polymarket, it is almost impossible to close it without affecting the market. According to data from Polymarket Analytics, four "Trump whale" accounts together hold about 25% of the contracts for Trump's electoral vote victory and more than 40% of the contracts for Trump's popular vote victory.
Théo admitted he was nervous. He was confident Trump would win, between 80 and 90 percent, but worried about last-minute breaking news that could affect his bets.
“Accidents can happen at any time,” Théo said.
