On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor released its latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report. The core PCE price index was 2.7% year-on-year in September, higher than the expected 2.6%. The PCE price index was 2.1% year-on-year in September, the lowest level since early 2021 and slightly higher than the Fed’s 2% target.
After the data was released, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (TNX) climbed to 4.33% at one point, and financial markets fell.
As of the closing, the three major U.S. indices all fell sharply, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq closing down 1.86%, 0.90% and 2.76%, respectively.
According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin fell below the $72,000 support level near midday, and then fell below $70,000. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $70,452, down nearly 3% in 24 hours.
Altcoins fell across the board, with SOL falling below $170 and BNB falling below $580, with a 24-hour drop of more than 3%. The current overall market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.34 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 59% of the market.
Although the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) FedWatch tool shows that the market still generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut at the last two FOMC meetings in 2024, investors remain cautious ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Trump's chances of winning are lower
Data from crypto betting site Polymarket showed that Trump's chances of winning dropped to 63% from 67% two days ago, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's chances of winning rose to 36% from 33%.
Meanwhile, shares of Trump Media & Technology (DJT) have plunged 34% in the past three days, after rising 352% in the last month.
Brian Rudick, director of research at cryptocurrency trading firm GSR, noted that “since May, when Trump began embracing digital assets, the correlation between Trump’s election odds and Bitcoin prices has only been 25-35%”. But he said that correlation could increase as Election Day approaches.
Uptober achieved?
Looking at the overall performance this month, Bitcoin crashed to a low of $58,855 on October 10, but then rebounded to near its all-time high, with the current 30-day gain being about 16.08%. According to market analyst Nagato, a closing price below $71,400 this month would mean "failure."
“Bitcoin is still some time away from a monthly close that could go down as one of the most significant closes in Bitcoin’s history,” he wrote in a post on X. “$71,400 is the floor. A close above that would further validate Uptober.”
TradingView analyst TradingShot noted that the month is coming to an end and unless BTC drops $7,000 in the next few hours, it will close in the green, saying: “This will be the second consecutive green monthly line since March.”
The analyst said: "This seven-month consolidation period is not new to Bitcoin, as accumulation phases with multiple consecutive monthly lines not in green are common during bull markets."
TradingShot emphasized: “So far in the current bull market, we have gone through three such phases (including March 2024), and once the market closes two consecutive months with a green monthly line, a rally will occur. The 2019-2021 bull market had three such consecutive green monthly lines and a very obvious accumulation phase, while the 2015-2018 bull market had countless times. It can be clearly seen from the multi-year chart above that when the market closes two consecutive months with a green monthly line, it is always a good buy signal.”
