Trading Star Tuesday Space Summary: Can Bitcoin Hit 150,000?

Author: Trading Star Tuesday

"Trading Tuesday" is an in-depth dialogue column of Hong Kong Web3 technology media Techub News. It focuses on crypto market trends and trading strategies every Tuesday, providing investors with multiple perspectives and cutting-edge insights. Based on the blockchain and Web3 fields, Techub News works closely with Hong Kong Cyberport, Science Park and other institutions to build an industry exchange platform.

This episode is hosted by veteran host Brother Qie and his new partner Krystal. We specially invite senior practitioners in the crypto industry - Armonio (partner of AC Capital), Kon Jie (first-level researcher of Lys Labs) and Balance (co-founder of Kingdata & Geniidata) to have a heated discussion on the price trend of Bitcoin and its market impact.

At the beginning of the show, Brother Qie livened up the atmosphere with a humorous style: "Today our new partner Miss Krystal makes her debut, everyone must support her as much as you love me!" Then, Krystal briefly introduced the ecological layout of Techub News and raised the core topic of this issue: "Can Bitcoin hit $150,000 in 2025? Is the institutional forecast a rational analysis or over-optimism?"

Bitcoin price prediction for the year: consensus and disagreement

The host, Brother Qie, asked first: "Galaxy predicts 150,000, and Blockware even calls out 400,000. What do you think?"

• Balance cuts in from the data perspective: "The market is divided into two camps - optimists bet on the continued inflow of ETF funds and the dividends of the halving cycle, while conservatives believe that a wide range of 80,000-150,000 fluctuations is more realistic." He specifically mentioned that the recent activity of the inscription track may be a signal of warming market sentiment, but also reminded: "If the Fed postpones the interest rate cut, Bitcoin may replicate the 'roller coaster market' of 2021."

• Kon Jie combined the on-chain indicators to analyze: "When the panic index fell to 29.5, the market was close to the stage bottom. In the long run, 150,000 is the superposition result of Fibonacci retracement and doubling consensus." He emphasized the characteristics of a slow bull market: "Bitcoin is like climbing stairs, rising three steps and retreating two steps, but on-chain assets (such as Trump Coin) will continue to create local hot spots."

• Armonio related it to the macro economy: "Bitcoin is highly tied to Nasdaq. If the US economic crisis breaks out, it may be under pressure in the short term, but it may rebound violently after interest rate cuts and money release." He pointed out sharply: "After Wall Street took away the pricing power, it has become normal for Bitcoin to 'lye flat and play dead' on weekends."

Brother Qie joked in his conclusion: "It seems that the 'bull market is back' cannot just be a slogan, it also depends on the attitude of the Federal Reserve!"

The $150,000 Butterfly Effect: Market Boom or Polarization?

Krystal asked the second question: "If Bitcoin really reaches 150,000, will altcoins flourish?"

• Kon Jie is optimistic: "Referring to the Solana Inscription craze, new asset issuance models will emerge on the chain, and AI Agent and RWA (real world assets) may take over and explode." He gave an example: "When the price was $100,000, the AI track attracted more than $700 million in a single week, and the liquidity spillover effect was obvious."

• Balance poured cold water on this: "The siphoning effect of institutional funds has intensified, and altcoins need to have strong narratives of their own. Referring to the history of Dogecoin and Shitcoin, only leading projects can survive the cycle." He bluntly said: "Now the coin issuing team would rather raise equity financing than easily go to Binance - the liquidity trap is too deep!"

• Armonio warned of the industry's pain points: "If Web3 projects only want to 'hold high the banner of Bitcoin' but have no actual revenue, they will eventually die out of involution." He took the decentralized futures protocol hyperliquiquit as an example: "Compliance innovation is the key to breaking through. It is better to solve real needs than to issue coins."

Brother Qie joked: "After listening to everyone's speeches, I suddenly feel more at ease stocking up on pancakes!"

The logic behind institutional forecasts: a battle between data, technology and faith

Regarding the divergence of institutional target prices, Balance explained the source of the differences: "Galaxy values the expansion of ETF scale, Blockware targets the gold market value, and Blockstream insists on conservative valuation based on technical flow." He added: "Max Keiser called out $440,000, but this kind of 'belief' prediction is more like a marketing gimmick."

Armonio sharply commented: "Institutional reports are essentially a game of position. BlackRock is bullish because it holds ETFs, while Goldman Sachs is bearish because it needs to hedge its derivatives exposure." He reminded investors: "Don't be led by the dot plot. When an economic crisis comes, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates faster than anyone else!"

Potential risks: The crypto market under the hovering black swan

Brother Qie asked: "What factors may make the 150,000 yuan go up in smoke?" The three guests listed three risks:

• Macroeconomic level: The Federal Reserve postponed the interest rate cut, the US stock market collapsed, and geopolitical conflicts (Armonio emphasized: "The spread between the US 10-year and 3-month Treasury bonds turned positive. This signal would inevitably trigger a crisis in the past 40 years").
• Regulatory variables: global KYC tightening and quantum computing threats (Balance revealed: "Bitcoin core developers are secretly discussing quantum defense solutions").
• Market structure: ETF funds reversed outflows, and altcoin liquidity dried up (Kon Jie warned: "If institutions only buy Bitcoin and don't touch altcoins, the ecosystem will be completely broken").

ETF fund flows: a bull market engine or a double-edged sword?

Regarding the recent continuous net inflows of ETFs, Kon Jie used data to speak: "BlackRock IBIT attracted $743 million in funds this week, but the selling pressure of Grayscale GBTC has not stopped. We need to be wary of 'false prosperity'."

rmonio digs deep into the underlying logic: "ETF inflows are the result rather than the cause. Traditional capital is still waiting and watching, and will only buy the bottom in large numbers when bloody chips appear."

Brother Qie concluded with a metaphor: "ETFs are like gasoline, which can fuel the bull market, but if the engine (fundamentals) stalls, it may explode the fuel tank!"

Summarize

Brother Qie’s closing remarks: “Bitcoin’s surge requires the resonance of three forces: stable U.S. stocks, continued life of ETF funds, and loosened regulation. Retail investors should not be distracted by fragmented news, focus on on-chain innovation and leading projects, and prepare bullets to prevent black swans!”