According to 4E monitoring, as the US election entered the final countdown, the three major US stock indexes closed down collectively on Monday as most investors remained on the sidelines. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.61%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.33%. Given the high stalemate between Trump and Harris, supporters of both sides rushed to "place another bet" on Monday. Trump Media Technology Group, which had closed down by double digits for three consecutive days, closed up 12.37% after falling 5% on Monday. Bets on Harris's victory are also increasing, and photovoltaic and clean energy concept stocks also rose collectively on Monday.
The crypto market fell again due to the continued weakening of the "Trump deal". As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $67,939, down 1.4%, and Ethereum was trading at $2,407, down 2.32%.
In terms of foreign exchange, the "Trump deal" was reduced, and the Fed was expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. The US dollar index fell by more than 0.4% and fell below 104 on the day before the election, falling to a two-week low and the largest drop in more than a month. Non-US currencies rose across the board. Affected by the announcement of OPEC+ to postpone production increases, oil prices were supported and rose by more than 3% during the session. Gold prices were boosted by risk aversion caused by uncertainty in the US election, expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the US dollar index hitting a two-week low. Spot gold closed up 0.05% in late trading.
In the past few days, a series of polls have shown that the gap between Trump and Harris's winning rate is narrowing rapidly. At present, the votes of both parties are very close. The market is worried that the controversial vote count may delay the election results for several days. In addition, if Trump loses the election, his supporters may cite these data to "prove" election fraud and cause unrest. Another catalyst for risk aversion is the interest rate decision held by the Federal Reserve on Thursday and Powell's speech at the press conference. With the arrival of two storms this week, market volatility has increased and the demand for risk aversion has increased.
