When Binance suddenly announced the launch of ACT, you might have heard a name repeatedly amid people’s exclamations – Wizard.
People thanked the wizard, saying that he saved ACT, and the wizard said it was a victory for the community.
This is a Hollywood-style story of common people against a dragon:
The developer sold all the tokens, and the price dropped by 50% in an instant, almost destroying the project. The wizard and other community members rebuilt it on the ruins. The price dropped by 80% three times, but the community still held on. Market makers commented that they had never seen such a "poor" project until Binance became the angel in white and ACT became a blockbuster.
In the wizard's opinion, AI MEMEs such as ACT and GOAT represent a Renaissance of AI. The AI of the future will no longer be a simple assistant, but a free soul with autonomous consciousness that can be controlled within a certain range.
Today’s wizard seems to have become the Murad of the Chinese cryptocurrency circle. However, greatness is achieved through hard work, and behind great results is often great pain.
An eight-digit dollar position was liquidated in a single day and he was stuck in ORDI for half a year. The wizard said that he had experienced palpitations several times, just like walking on a busy street on a sunny afternoon, and his heart kept twitching.
How did a mysterious ordinary person make a comeback many times on his own? What profound philosophical thinking is behind the seemingly simple MEME investment?
This is the story and thoughts of a wizard.
Entering the circle: Counting a hundred times, cutting off the old yellow
TechFlow: Please introduce yourself, how did you get into the cryptocurrency circle?
0xWizard :
I actually entered the cryptocurrency world in 2018, but I didn’t actively trade at that time. In 2018, I read the white papers of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and then bought some mainstream coins such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, but just held them. From 2018 to 2019 was a bear market, and during this period I basically did not do anything, just simply held them.
Around the middle of 2020, I noticed that the coins in my account began to appreciate significantly. At this time, I began to think, is this an opportunity?
A friend introduced me to the concept of DeFi (decentralized finance). I briefly learned about it, such as the Compound project, which was the first to do liquidity mining. At first, I thought it was a bit like the trading mining model of FCoin, and I thought it was not sustainable. It was June 2020, and my understanding of trading was still superficial, and I had not been deeply exposed to DeFi.
What really made me start paying attention to DeFi was YFI. Some people said that YFI made 10,000 times the profit. The stimulation of this wealth effect is very strong.
So in September, I began to actively learn and understand the cryptocurrency world, especially DeFi. I learned how to use the MetaMask wallet and bought some Sushi before it was listed. Although Sushi later fell a lot, which taught me a painful lesson, it also marked the official start of my DeFi journey, or active trading journey.
Later, the explosion was caused by Suanwen (algorithmic stablecoin). I entered the circle in September of that year, and then lost 60% in October. In November, I made 100 times the profit from Suanwen.
From that time on, I was probably one of the first players on the chain. I have done everything, whether it was the secondary or primary level. In the secondary level, I played with copycats, big coins, rolling warehouses, ETH, and various projects on the chain. The ups and downs were quite interesting.
TechFlow: You mentioned before that you can make a guaranteed profit of 100 times. Which project is that specifically?
0xWizard:
I participated in Basis and Mith Cash. I made 10 times on Basis, and invested tens of thousands of dollars. Then I participated in Mith Cash, which is Huang's project.
Here is an interesting story. In the KP3R project, I met a friend named "X". At that time, we both had little money to play KP3R, and Lao Huang (Huang Licheng) kept smashing the market, from 200 US dollars to 80 US dollars. We were both trapped together and chatted every day.
Later, we participated in Basis and Mith Cash together. He didn't play Basis, but I played and made 10 times the money. When it came to Mith Cash, we both participated together, and he made about 5 million US dollars, and I made 3 million US dollars. This can be regarded as revenge for the one arrow in KP3R that year. We used the Mith Cash project to "bury" Lao Huang, which was quite interesting.
Thinking behind ACT: AI Renaissance
TechFlow: ACT is the hottest topic recently. Many people mentioned you and said they were grateful to the wizard for letting them hold on. Were you surprised when you heard that Binance launched ACT? What do you think is the main reason why Binance chose to launch ACT instead of GOAT, the leader of the sector?
0xWizard:
I was sitting in front of the computer at the time. I saw the line first, then the congratulations message, and finally the official announcement.
Regarding whether it was a surprise that ACT was listed on Binance, I think there was a lot of luck involved. No one could predict that it would definitely be listed, but it cannot be said to be completely unexpected. It is actually quite clear that Binance chose to list ACT instead of GOAT.
This involves the MEME ecosystem on Solana. There are actually two types of MEME ecosystems: one is a real community coin, and the other is a highly controlled coin .
Many of the coins that are being hyped are actually the latter, where a small number of people control a large number of chips, and then build a community to push up the price of the coin. If such coins are listed on a large exchange, they will often be in a bad situation, because the controlling party will quickly sell the coins. For Binance, there is no benefit in listing such coins with an unhealthy chip structure.
ACT and Neiro are both real community coins. When I observed ACT, I found that its trading was very quiet, but it was able to maintain a stable market value of 20 million US dollars because of its strong community.
There are about 20 core people who actively contribute in the ACT community. I am the only Chinese among them, so I am very clear about the situation.
The problem faced by this kind of real community coin is that there are no strong market makers coming in. But from Binance's perspective, this is precisely a very good target.
It does have a strong community. You can see that the real ACT holders cast more than 20,000 votes when Kucoin voted to list the coin. Although one person can cast 5 votes on Kucoin, there are 15,000 ACT holding addresses. Excluding invalid addresses, there are about 9,000 valid addresses. Excluding the situation where one person holds multiple addresses, there are about 6,000 to 8,000 real holders, of which 4,000 voted, which shows that this community is very active and real. If you ask them to vote, they will really vote, showing strong cohesion.
For Binance, this kind of target is the most ideal. Projects with a market value of hundreds of millions may not have as many holders as ACT, nor are they as cohesive as ACT.
Projects like ACT have a large number of fans, but their market value is very low, which leaves enough room for both the primary and secondary markets to form a wealth effect and myth.
I remember writing a tweet before, saying that if Binance were to list a coin, it should choose a coin like this:
New narratives and new tracks mean there is a lot of room for growth in the future;
A truly strong community;
Small market capitalization, so that primary and secondary wealth effects can be generated;
It is highly timely, no matter whether it is controversial or hot;
ACT has all these features. I wrote the tweet based on ACT’s features, but to be honest, I didn’t expect it to be listed, because it is ultimately the exchange’s decision whether to list or not, and we cannot predict it. But from a logical point of view, we can find some clues. By analyzing the entire MEME market, we can see that Binance will not list those highly controlled coins.
For example, those highly controlled coins are sold as soon as they are launched, which is equivalent to only helping a few people to cash out, while most users in the secondary market become victims. I think this is a typical way of thinking for Binance.
As for GOAT, I think it is indeed a good target, but the reason why Binance did not choose it may be that its market value is too high. In this case of unclear chips and high market value, it is risky for Binance to launch it. Binance must first consider protecting its users and ensure that this launch target can take care of the demands of as many people as possible.
Another important point is what I mentioned before. Factors such as high upside potential, new tracks, and new narratives are also very important.
Many brothers came to me and said, "Wizard, look at our community. Our community is very persistent, and we are also miserable." But it's like you only see one factor in a successful case. The most critical factor for me to choose ACT is that it represents a new track and a new narrative, which cannot be ignored. Without this, how can we drive the hype in the secondary market? How can we ensure the upward space? It is not enough to have a strong community.
The most important point is that I think Binance also saw that this is a trend, so it has to choose a representative target. The following series of considerations are all after this selection to ensure that choosing ACT is the right decision. This is my opinion.
TechFlow: How did you discover ACT in the beginning? What qualities of it attracted you in the early days and made you stick with it even when it experienced a big drop in value?
0xWizard:
The ACT has experienced three drops of more than 80%.
I came into contact with ACT relatively late, when I saw someone mention ACT on social media. When I checked its candlestick chart, I found that the market value had risen to 40 million US dollars. I happened to enter the market at that peak, and then the price experienced an 80% decline. During this decline, I continued to build positions, buying from a market value of 40 million US dollars to 5 million US dollars.
I joined the ACT community from day one, and I was hooked before I started to study it in depth. The main reason I chose to enter the market at that time was that the market was generally looking for the next GOAT, and ACT had many similarities with GOAT:
First of all , these two projects were the first ones Marc Andersson funded, ACT was the first and GOAT was the second.
Secondly , in the field of AI MEME, there is a small circle with Andy as the core, and almost all researchers in this circle participated in the ACT project. Although AMP is the representative of the project, he is just one of the people standing in front of the stage. If you study it in depth, you will find that the initial thinking framework was proposed by Andy, and more people participated in it later. On the day ACT was launched, Andy also forwarded many ACT-related content.
Therefore , the logic of choosing ACT is very clear. When entering this field, we need to look for unique projects that can tell new stories. Other projects are talking about AI Agents and are imitating GOAT, but ACT has gone its own way.
I once compared this to an AI Renaissance on Twitter. Thinking deeply about the emergence of GOAT and ACT, it is similar to the Renaissance movement in human history. The Renaissance emphasized that human rights are higher than divine rights, and proposed new concepts to break through old thinking. The emergence of GOAT and ACT is also the same.
In traditional concepts, AI is just our assistant, but if we look at the future of AI, in the future Internet world, 80% of the natives may be AI, and people may not even be able to tell whether the other party is human or AI. At that time, AI will no longer be a simple assistant, but a free soul with autonomous consciousness and controllable within a certain range.
AI MEME is exploring this kind of imagination and possibility of the future. This is why I particularly appreciate this project. It is full of futuristic sense, and has practical applications and a large amount of traffic on social media, which is very consistent with the needs of cryptocurrency.
The emergence of GOAT reflects Andy's philosophy: let AI play freely and think independently, just like the Renaissance freed people from the shackles of theocracy, let AI break free from human restrictions and see what it can create. He proposed the concept of "the profane is sacred, and the sacred is profane". This is GOAT, which tokenizes an idea.
To realize this vision, we need to build on the foundation of the Renaissance: freedom, science, and democracy. ACT is a research framework designed based on these concepts. Many researchers are advancing their research on this basis, and AMP is just one of them. In fact, it was not AMP that created the ACT project, but the ACT project that is funding the entire AI Renaissance movement. This is why I initially joined and am optimistic about this project.
Regarding AMP, although he is one of the participants in the ACT project, his character is disappointing. When he initially received more than 30,000 US dollars in funding from Marc Andersson, he was grateful, but when the cryptocurrency community gave him 1 million US dollars in support, he kept belittling the community, saying that we are all gamblers who are just borrowing his reputation.
This is why I want to speak up for the ACT community. Later, when AMP started to crash, I was very emotional and got angry on Twitter for the first time. Because I have real emotional exchanges with community members. I can't understand how an outsider can treat our cryptocurrency community with such a condescending and contemptuous attitude. We gave him research funding, how could he treat us like this?
Back to the original question, my conclusion is based on two points: first, rational analysis. I think this is a good investment target. Second, emotional factors. I resonate with the community and empathize with myself in 2020. No one spoke for me at the time, but now I want to stand up and speak for them.
Rebuilding the Tower of Babel in the name of community
TechFlow: The abandonment and stabbing of AMP is equivalent to the destruction of the ATC building, and you rebuilt ACT on the ruins through the power of the community. What has your community done and how do you divide the work?
0xWizard:
ACT is not a traditional project. There is no formal organizational structure. There is no CEO, CFO or CMO to control public opinion and do PR. When we see AMP shipped, everyone acts based on their own true reactions.
For example, the content quality of the ACT community account has been very high from the beginning. Those high-quality pictures and videos are not random MEME pictures, but are made by an overseas female artist in the community. She is purely contributing silently as a coin holder without any compensation.
In terms of Telegram group management, if there is no active administrator online 24 hours a day, the group will be full of spam ads. But in the ACT community, you can't see any ads, because the administrator will immediately delete them and kick out the account that posted the ads. These are all spontaneous actions of community members.
In addition, there are people like Naizige (X: cryptocurrency philanthropist) who help introduce centralized exchange (CEX) resources, and other foreign members in the community who introduce high-quality market makers.
In fact, we had been in contact with these market makers before listing on Binance, but because our funds were really limited, the market makers said that they had never come across such a "poor" project. Despite this, we still frankly told them that this was our current situation and asked them to consider whether they could accept it.
Finally, these top market makers saw that we were indeed one of the strongest communities and reluctantly agreed to collaborate.
Everyone is working towards the same goal, and everyone is holding their breath, just like me: We are kind farmers, why should we be bitten by snakes? Why do retail investors always bear the most painful consequences?
When the project's market value dropped from 40 million US dollars to 5 million US dollars, I started to build confidence in the Telegram group. The method was very simple, showing my orders. I told everyone that I was buying with tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars to keep everyone confident.
During the three 80% declines that ACT experienced, I appeared in the community each time and said, "I'm here, I'm with you." As a person with a certain influence, I want to tell the retail investors in the community that I will not leave and I will always support them.
But I want to emphasize that I am not a savior or a godfather, I am just an ordinary community member. Without the efforts of others, can I persist alone? Can I manage the group 24 hours a day? Can I make pictures? Can I contact these market makers? If it were just me, I might have given up long ago.
This is a victory for the community, not for me personally. The Chinese community only sees me, but there are many people working hard behind the scenes.
It is worth mentioning that Binance did not ask us for any tokens. Even when their post-listing team contacted me after the listing, I told them that I was just a leek who bought the tokens. Two hours before the final listing, they came to verify some basic information, such as the total and circulating supply of tokens, the official Twitter account, etc. At that time, they also asked for thousands of test tokens, which made me speechless, indicating that they did not even prepare test coins.
This also proves that Binance has a very strict confidentiality process.
Whether in the Neiro or ACT projects, when the community is fighting against the conspiracy group, Binance stands on the side of the community and leaves enough space for both the primary and secondary markets. Isn’t this a good thing?
Like Neiro, I bought it when the market value was $300 million, and now it has tripled. After listing on Binance, you can use a larger position and buy millions of dollars of tokens, which is a completely different logic. There is enough space in the primary and secondary markets, what else do you want? I really don't understand why some people want to attack Binance and this project.
TechFlow: For most coins, especially some VC coins with high control by project owners, listing on Binance means that all the benefits have been exhausted, and then everyone starts to sell. So for ACT, which has already been listed on Binance, what room for imagination is there in the future?
0xWizard:
As a community project, the value of ACT is constantly being reshaped. This is why I re-participated in on-chain projects from 2020 to 2023, based on a basic theoretical assumption: Why do MEME coins or on-chain projects produce wealth effects?
Let’s first look at the traditional VC project token production method: a project party proposes an idea, analyzes market demand, and solves industry development problems. Then it starts looking for investors, finds VCs, develops products after obtaining investment, and finally launches them.
The value of such a project depends on several factors:
Is the project itself good? Is the team strong?
Whether the VC entering is top-tier;
Whether it is listed on a major exchange;
But the problem is that when it is listed on a major exchange, there is not much room in the secondary market. Because all these factors have been analyzed, the pricing is already very reasonable, and the valuation (FDV) may be hundreds of millions, billions or even tens of billions of dollars. In this case, as an ordinary investor, can you still accept it?
In addition, project owners often adopt a predatory token model, releasing a small amount initially and then releasing it continuously.
You will see that although the market value of some currencies has not changed, the price of the currency has fallen by 10 times. This makes it difficult for the story of "falling 90% and then rising 100 times" that we often see in the previous cycles of cryptocurrencies to appear in this cycle.
The value of on-chain projects, like ACT, is constantly being reshaped. This is why I dare to buy Neiro. After it was listed on Binance, its narrative, funds, user groups and investment logic have all changed.
ACT may have been just one of the two most important targets in the AI MEME track before, but now that it is listed on Binance, it is no longer just one of the two most important targets in the AI MEME, but has become the representative of the AI MEME itself and an index target of this track. It represents a new track and a new trend.
If you have millions of dollars of funds to allocate in the secondary market, how do you allocate them? On Binance, if you want to invest in AI-related tracks, ACT’s benchmark is no longer GOAT, but projects that have reached FDV of tens of billions of dollars, such as Worldcoin.
This involves two core logics: first, its value is constantly being reshaped; second, the judgment of future market opportunities.
When I tweeted in October, I asked everyone sincerely: If we enter a bull market in the next two months (Bitcoin had not yet started to rise at that time), which sector will be able to rise 10 times?
As a retail investor, if a track can only rise two or three times, you can’t actually make much money. Because many people have to wait until the bull market is confirmed before they dare to buy, and they don’t know where the top is. People who react quickly may make 50%, 60%, 80%, and it’s good, and it’s difficult to double. Only if you find a track that can rise 10 times, even if you enter the market on the right side and exit on the right side, you can still get three or five times the profit.
To this end, I studied all tracks, including DeFi, BTC ecology, TON ecology, AI track and pan-MEME coin track. After reading it, I had a headache, because the projects that can be bought in the AI track are already worth billions of dollars, how can they increase 10 times?
What is the cryptocurrency market hyping? The entire macro logic is that AI is leading the technological revolution, leading the next industrial revolution and information revolution. AI supports the US stock market, so how can the cryptocurrency market not hype AI? This is also why the AI track rose 10 times at the beginning of the year. But after the general rise, it is difficult to buy FDV projects worth tens of billions or hundreds of billions of dollars.
So when GOAT appeared, my eyes lit up immediately. After ACT was launched, I think if you want to invest in the AI track, especially if you are an investor with a million-dollar scale, you should ask yourself two questions: First, among all the tracks, which track can generally increase 10 times? Which track will definitely increase? Second, can the target in this track allow me to increase 10 times? Is its market value possible?
This is why I think ACT still has a lot of room for growth. Although it has experienced three 80% declines, there are many "diamond hands" and "brainless fans" in the community. I also said in the community group that I am a brainless fan. Don't ask me about my logic. I just believe in and support these people unconditionally.
TechFlow: Looking back, in the dispute between uppercase and lowercase Neiro, Binance finally chose the lowercase Neiro which is more community-friendly. It can be said that Binance saved Neiro/ACT.
There seems to be a contradiction here. Everyone is tired of VC coins and chooses to issue and trade Memecoin, which is more community-oriented, on the chain. However, it is Binance that ultimately decides the life and death of this Memecoin. So I also saw DOG founder Leonidas tweeting @一姐(何一) and CZ day after day, hoping that Binance would launch DOG.
Everyone is embracing more decentralized assets on the chain, but the ultimate goal is to gain recognition from the most powerful centralized exchange in order to complete liquidity exit. This seems a bit ironic. What do you think of this phenomenon? Will centralized exchanges or Binance always be the "savior" of Memecoin?
0xWizard:
I think we need to look at this issue from several angles and perspectives:
First of all, we need to look at it from a historical perspective. This is a process. Currently, the funds and liquidity on the chain are not sufficient, while Binance has more sufficient liquidity.
Secondly, MEME coin itself is also facing difficulties. Binance cannot rashly list the coin without seeing the community formed. I think Binance has made many steps forward in this regard. From their selection logic, we can see that they are adapting to this new version, which I think is very good.
I think the value of this kind of community target is constantly being reshaped, and Binance is now actively involved in it. This is the current status of the historical process. Binance has its limitations, and the chain also has its limitations, but at least everyone has expressed a good attitude, mentality and values to accept this matter.
The second point is about the future. In the future, Binance will always be a place for large capital liquidity, there is no doubt about that. But there will be more and more liquidity on the chain, which is why I am optimistic about on-chain projects.
The future may be like this: even if the chain is not listed on Binance, there will be projects with market value of hundreds of millions or billions of dollars or even higher. But there is a problem with these projects, that is, as a financial target, if it is to reach a certain actual standard, there must be a dominant force behind it, and the chain is no exception.
But I actually hope that pure community projects will have a higher ceiling in the future. Pure community projects like Neiro and ACT struggle with a market cap of $20 million, and I hope that will change in the future. For example, this kind of pure community project can attract some good funds and then reach a market cap of $100 million, $200 million, or even $1 billion. I think this is a brighter future, and more funds may be willing to try on the chain.
But the exchange also assumes the role of providing greater liquidity and a safer trading environment. Maybe in the future, Binance will have well-designed projects like Neiro and ACT launched, giving everyone hope. I think whether it is Binance or Chain, everyone will be able to find their own position in this ecosystem and play to their own strengths in the future.
In addition, Binance also needs a wealth effect, whether it is the wealth effect of the general rise of altcoins or the wealth effect after Neiro and ACT are launched, which is why I still firmly hold these two targets. What Binance needs is the myth of the wealth effect, and there will definitely be a wealth myth in the secondary market. In this way, isn't it a benign interaction? There are wealth myths on Binance and on the chain, and there are intersections. When Binance supports community projects, such an intersection appears.
I think this is a positive interaction in the future. Everyone can gain wealth effects on different platforms, and at the same time there is a certain overlap, which is a positive development direction.
What happened to the Bitcoin ecosystem?
TechFlow: This year, the Bitcoin ecosystem represented by ORDI once prospered, and also gave Eastern crypto forces a voice, but later it fell into a slump. In your opinion, what is the main reason why the Bitcoin ecosystem has not been able to take off now? Is there any chance for the Bitcoin ecosystem to rise in the future?
0xWizard:
I think the Bitcoin ecosystem has opportunities. But I have to admit that the market choices in the short term at this stage are not friendly to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
I can share some of the issues I've seen:
The first problem is that the Bitcoin ecosystem needs better innovation. Just like before, we saw some unprecedented things, such as writing content on the chain and tokenizing content, which is a very interesting innovation. But then the innovation seemed to be a little weak. If there is no innovation, the market will not accept it.
The second problem is that the liquidity of the Bitcoin ecosystem is very fragmented. The various protocols are actually splitting the liquidity, a bit like Ethereum's Layer 2. One group of people plays with inscriptions, another group plays with runes, another group plays with Merlin, and the recently emerged fractal Bitcoin is another group. Everyone is doing their own thing and has little to do with each other.
I deliberately sent a tweet at that time, which meant: The external liquidity of the Bitcoin ecosystem has not yet entered in large quantities, while the internal liquidity is becoming increasingly fragmented. What should we do?
I still think that the Bitcoin ecosystem has hope, but to break through in the future, I think we need new stories first. You can’t always tell stories about inscriptions, or stories similar to inscriptions, because the excitement of such stories has become weaker and weaker.
The second point is that the Bitcoin ecosystem needs to find a way to solve the liquidity split. Although I can’t see a specific solution now, it is as difficult to solve as Ethereum’s Layer 2 liquidity split problem.
We need a project that everyone agrees on, at least everyone in the Bitcoin ecosystem thinks it is awesome. In this way, the funds in the Bitcoin ecosystem can push it to a very high market value, exchanges will also think it is awesome, and more people and communities will come in. This may be a direction to break the deadlock.
The third is to look at existing projects, such as Rune, to see if any of them can be listed on a large exchange. If they can be listed on a large exchange, this will be the most direct wealth effect, and it may also bring about a warming of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
But I think the most needed thing is the first point, which is to be able to bring about fundamental innovation, and the exchange is in a state of following.
Behind great results comes great pain
TechFlow: I also saw Kay's tweet, he said that behind every great result of the Wizards is great pain. Can you share some of the painful moments you've experienced? How did you get through them?
0xWizard:
To be honest, I have experienced too many moments like this, and I still feel palpitations when I look back on them now, like on a sunny afternoon, you are walking on a busy street, your heart keeps twitching, and you can't even walk normally. It's that feeling of not being able to exist normally in this world.
I have had this experience many times. For example, on 519, I traded Ethereum with leverage and almost got liquidated, but it ended up being a happy ending. By the end of 2021, the amount of funds not only recovered, but also reached a new high. But when 3AC liquidated in 2022, I lost almost 8-digit USD assets in just one month. This was a huge retracement, which was almost unacceptable to me.
I always tell everyone to think clearly whether they can accept the worst outcome of the transaction, but that time even I couldn't accept the result. During that time, I was in a state of palpitations, I couldn't walk normally on the road, and when I opened the exchange software, no matter how the price went, I was numb.
Then there was ORDI. I held it from 7U to 3U. This was another torture. It was cut in half in half a year, and it was a large position. At that time, I pinned all my hopes on ORDI, which was actually a bad habit. It might be because I am too subjective. When I make a trade, you can hear my strong recognition and confidence in my logic, but this trait is that profits and losses come from the same source, so when bad luck comes, it is particularly bad luck.
ORDI was stuck for half a year, and everyone was complaining, including Bitcoin OGs who said that inscriptions were worthless. You will constantly question whether you are wrong. This time, ACT was the same, falling 80% three times in just half a month.
How did you get through it? I think there are a few reasons:
First, I am more optimistic than most people . I have always been more optimistic than more than 99% of people. This character advantage has really helped me, but even so, I still often feel so painful that I feel I can't continue trading, or even survive. But the sun will always come out, just like I tweeted, "No matter how deep the night is, always believe that the dawn will come." Every time I believe that I can stand up again, because countless experiences in the past have told me that I can stand up.
Second, seek external help . For example, during my time at ORDI, I wrote a tweet after watching Oppenheimer's film, and I felt a little relieved after watching it.
What kind of person was Oppenheimer? He was handsome, a second-generation rich man. When his father died, he left him an inheritance equivalent to more than 100 million US dollars today. He was also extremely smart and went to Harvard at the age of 16. What was the life of this father of the atomic bomb, who reversed the trend of World War II, like when he was young?
After watching the movie, I read all his information. He was close to collapse many times when he was young. When he was studying in the UK, he almost wanted to poison his tutor. When he saw his best friend had a girlfriend, he felt abandoned and almost strangled his best friend with a belt. He would fall to the ground and twitch with foam at the mouth in pain. In his 20s, he wanted to kiss young women on the train. All of this was due to the sexual repression of young men, plus the pain of not having their talents recognized.
You can see that even a person like this has such terrible moments, and he looks like a psychopath who should be locked up. But he finally came out. I was relieved. Everyone has their darkest moments, even those who seem particularly great.
How am I better than Oppenheimer? 99.99% of the world's people admit that I am not as good as him. Why should I expect to suffer less than him and still get good results? It's impossible.
These are the two directions of inner seeking and outer seeking: inner seeking means persevering and holding on, and outer seeking means looking for some logic, facts, or other people’s experiences to find resonance.
The third point is to learn from the lesson and not let yourself fall into that state again. There is a universal principle: before making a trade, ask yourself what the worst case scenario is, and then ask yourself whether your current position can accept this worst result. If you can accept it, hold or buy; if you can't accept it, reduce your position or don't buy.
These are the three most critical points: looking inward, looking outward, and reflecting to avoid making the same mistakes again.
Three Laws of the Bull Market Engine
TechFlow: You once proposed the three laws of a bull market engine:
1. Old technology, new gameplay. Without this, the snow is not sticky enough (the fundamentals are not enough);
2. New narrative, new hope, without which the slope is not long enough;
3. Generate new assets in batches;
Without these, the slope is not wide enough. Only when they are combined can we have such a shocking scene as in 2017/20. Can you explain these three laws in detail?
0xWizard:
We often say that "only by looking at history clearly can we see through the future". I was in great pain during the bear market, and I was thinking about what it would be like if the bull market came. We can only find answers from the past bull market, but not simply copying the ICO or DeFi model, but finding the commonalities between them.
The first law: The cryptocurrency industry must always look for new narratives and new tracks. Because when discussing something that no one has seen before, its ceiling is unlimited. When it rises to 1 billion US dollars, 10 billion US dollars, or even 100 billion US dollars, everyone thinks it is reasonable because there are always corresponding reasons to explain its value. But if you are doing a DeFi project now, why should it be worth 1 billion US dollars? It is unreasonable, because the previous DeFi may not even be worth 600 million US dollars now. So you must have a new track, new hope, and new narrative.
This is why when many communities approach me, I think they need to first think clearly about whether their own ceiling is high enough before participating in community building. It doesn’t mean that you can make money just because the community is strong enough.
The second law: long-term accumulation is needed. Whether it is ICO or DeFi, it takes a long time to accumulate and then develop. For example, it took two or three years for Ethereum to flourish from its launch to its ICO. Looking at DeFi again, I did some archaeology and found that the concept of Uniswap (AMM) was proposed at the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018. Hayden created Uniswap based on this concept. Everyone admits that the prosperity of DeFi is because Uniswap allows people to trade various tokens, which creates lending needs and brings in more funds. It took almost two years from the concept to its real outbreak.
Therefore, the engine of this round of bull market cannot be a new technology that suddenly comes out now, but must be based on the accumulation of the past two or three years. Just like the Meme Coin Super Cycle, these are concepts proposed at the end of the last cycle, and they are only now experiencing a big boom. Whether it is AI Meme or inscription, they are essentially a branch of the MemeCoin boom and a new way of producing tokens.
This is “old technology, new gameplay”, but we cannot completely copy the previous model.
The third law: new assets must be generated in large quantities. ICOs can issue a large number of coins, as can DeFi. In the Inscription period, more than 20,000 Inscription coins can be issued a day. The same is true for AI, with a bunch of AI Agents appearing. If no new assets appear, there will be no dissemination effect. Suppose there was only Ethereum during the ICO period, and no projects like Antminer and NEO, would everyone go crazy? Wealth stories are spread one after another.
This also goes back to the essence of the cryptocurrency world: issuing assets. I have been in the cryptocurrency world for so many years, from reading white papers in 2017 and 2018 to now. After thinking about it, what is the advantage of the cryptocurrency world over Web2 or the real world? It is issuing assets. This convenience of regulatory arbitrage has never been seen anywhere else.
To give a negative example, projects like Pandora cannot form a large number of similar assets. But AI Agent is different. Now AI Agent is everywhere, and inscriptions are also a lot of projects at that time. This phenomenon can form a shocking force.
The combination of these three laws is the real bull market engine. Just like when I heard that YFI had increased 10,000 times in June 2020, my heart was shocked and I immediately wanted to enter the market to make money. This is the result of the new narrative, long-term accumulation and a large number of new assets.
Understanding narrative and community
TechFlow: Looking through your Twitter history, I find that the two keywords "narrative" and "community" are mentioned particularly frequently. What do you understand by the narrative and community of an asset?
0xWizard:
My understanding of narrative is this: to read narrative, you need to go back to the farthest point of thinking. Don't just look at the surface descriptive words, just like he shows you a tiger, but you have to tell whether it is a real tiger or a paper tiger by looking at its skin, flesh and bones. When I read narrative, I always try to explore the essence behind it.
For example, when many people talk about AI Agent, they all say that AI can do this and that in the future. But I think we can't just think about this step, we should think two, three, or four steps more than others. We should first ask ourselves: What is the essence of MEME? What is the essence of on-chain assets? Then think about what is the essence of the AI track in the secondary market of the cryptocurrency circle? Finally, we can understand the essence of AI MEME.
When I wrote the article "AI Renaissance", some people said it was "big and empty", but this is indeed the crystallization of my many years of experience in the cryptocurrency circle, and it is a conclusion derived from the most fundamental essence.
If your narrative is built on sand, the rising tide will wash it away, but if it is built on granite, it is indestructible.
This is my first principle of narrative: always dig one, two, or three more layers than others. Just like Wittgenstein's semantic view in modern philosophy: our language makes us who we are, and your way of thinking makes you who you are. If you always follow others, you are not yourself. Just like in Geometry, first establish axioms, then derive theorems, and finally draw conclusions.
I have two important points about community:
First, the best is a global community. The Chinese community is indeed very strong, but a good target must have a strong English and Chinese community. The so-called English community actually includes many people from the East 8 District, such as Indians and Koreans, and everyone communicates in English. If there is only an English community, it will not work, because the best investors and the best exchanges are in the Chinese community. But if there is only a Chinese community, based on experience, the upper limit of the market value is about 50-60 million US dollars, except for pioneering projects like ORDI.
Second, it depends on how many setbacks the community has experienced. You can’t just be bullish. If a group of people shout “buy” or “price will go up soon” in Telegram, that’s not a community.
I have been saying since the first day in the ACT English community that you need to understand what ACT is and not be FOMO because of the price. If a long-term project cannot attract a group of people with faith, then it is over. A community that only believes in prices will fall apart once the price drops.
But if there is a group of "brainless fans" like me who believe in their own logic, feelings towards the community, secondary judgment and primary logic, then even if the market drops 80% three times, they cannot be washed away.
A good community must be diverse, with a group of people who truly believe in something.
What is a bad community like? It is a small group of unbelieving people who try to deceive others. The deceived people themselves do not believe in it either, and they hope to deceive more people, and finally it becomes a competition of who can run faster.
TechFlow: Last question, what advice do you have for the many players who want to make a difference in the blockchain industry?
0xWizard:
There are several important principles for playing on the chain:
Don’t play with big money;
The definition of big money varies from person to person;
For example, if you have $100,000, use $10,000; if you have $1 million, use $100,000-200,000; if you have $10 million, use $1 million. In short, you should use funds you can afford to lose. This is because compared to traditional exchanges, on-chain exchanges are more risky.
Determine your strategy;
I wrote three strategies on Twitter about currencies that can be traded, and many others are traps;
a) Hot disk :
For example, the recent PINUT, LUCE, BAN, etc. can quickly reach more than 50-60 million US dollars, or even hundreds of millions of US dollars. The key is to judge how many people recognize the narrative and how popular it can be. Generally, the poor ones can reach 30-50 million US dollars, and the good ones can reach 80-100 million US dollars. If you see it within 10 million US dollars, you can get on board. But if it has reached 30 million US dollars, don't buy it. Hot stocks usually fall by 80%. You can enter when it falls by 80%, but be careful of traps.
Don’t go all in. If you place a bid for each hot spot when it drops 80%, your chances of winning will be higher.
b) Blue chips and potential targets :
For example, ACT and POPCAT did not rise based on hot topics, but experienced many setbacks and community consensus building processes. These coins often fall by 80%, but they have strong vitality. You need to observe the community more, think about your own logic, and judge whether the project is feasible.
Every 80% drop is an opportunity to add positions, and the best time to enter is when the market value is between several million and tens of millions of US dollars.
c) Large-cap blue chips :
Generally, it is played after listing on a large exchange. The logic becomes to judge the weight of funds and tracks, which is another secondary gameplay logic. For example, I dared to take over Neiro when it was 300 million US dollars. I think ACT still has a lot of room for development. They are all based on secondary logic. But you must play it on Binance. If it reaches 1 billion US dollars without being listed on Binance, don't participate.
These principles and strategies are based on my years of experience and thinking. Everyone's standards may be different, but it is important to have your own logic and judgment. Don't blindly follow the trend, but think deeply about the logic behind each transaction.
