Trading time: BTC bull market score hits a two-year low, and the layout of multiple ETF products is accelerating

1. Market observation

Keywords: BNB, ETH, BTC

The BSC ecosystem remains strong. He Yi began to promote the ecological Meme project. Influenced by his comments and attention, the Meme coins BUBB and TAT on the Binance chain have become popular recently. At the same time, the internal competition of the Solana ecosystem has intensified. Pump.fun launched the native decentralized exchange PumpSwap, and Raydium is also developing the Meme coin issuance platform LaunchLab.

In terms of the market, BTC has recently moved in a similar direction to the stock market, fluctuating around $85,000. The latest data from CryptoQuant shows that the Bitcoin bull market score index has dropped to its lowest point in two years, at only 20, down 23% from its peak. Historical data shows that a strong rebound will only occur when the index is above 60, and the continued downturn in the current index may indicate the formation of a bear market trend. From the perspective of institutional trading, the Greeks.live report shows that large transactions are mainly concentrated in the Bitcoin options market, with a buy risk reversal transaction of up to $33.4455 million, indicating that institutional investors are actively deploying to hedge downside risks. From the perspective of community reactions, Chinese and English investors also have different views on the market outlook. Some investors are closely watching the important level of $83-85K, and some traders expect Bitcoin to rise briefly before the continued volatility. There are even radical views predicting that Bitcoin may rise to $444,000. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently expressed the view that Bitcoin may have formed a stage bottom at $77,000. However, he also reminded investors to remain flexible and hold sufficient cash, as the stock market may need further adjustments, which often affect the trend of the cryptocurrency market.

The SEC recently made an important decision, determining that PoW mining activities do not constitute securities issuance. At the same time, NYSE Arca has submitted an application to the SEC for changes to the Bitwise Ethereum ETF pledge rules. Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, said that the Ethereum ETF has performed mediocre since its launch in July last year, mainly due to the problem of not being able to obtain pledge income. In addition, Ripple CEO expects to launch the XRP ETF by the end of 2025, while Bitnomial announced the launch of the first XRP futures product in the United States regulated by the CFTC.

At the macro level, QCP Capital analysis pointed out that the Fed's decision to reduce the quantitative tightening (QT) program from April provided an important upward catalyst for the market, which was one of the important factors that pushed the price of Bitcoin above $85,000. However, considering the Fed's expected three interest rate cuts in 2025 and the current differentiation of market sentiment, traders need to pay special attention to the performance of price support levels and do a good job of risk management. At the same time, retail investor sentiment remains cautious. The latest survey of the American Association of Retail Investors (AAII) shows that bullish sentiment is only 21.6%, far below the historical average of 37.5%, while the bearish ratio is as high as 58.1%, which has remained above 57% for the fourth consecutive week.

2. Key data (as of 13:30 HKT on March 21)

  • Bitcoin: $84,384.27 (-9.82% year-to-date), daily spot volume $24.648 billion

  • Ethereum: $1,972.88 (-40.89% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $13.189 billion

  • Fear and corruption index: 31 (fear)

  • Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.44 Gwei

  • Market share: BTC 60.6%, ETH 8.6%

  • Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, AUCTION, BTC, VANA, LAYER

  • 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9818

  • Sector gains and losses: SocialFi sector rose 3.25%, RWA sector rose 2.48%

  • 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 83,084 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$191 million, including BTC liquidation of US$64.04 million and ETH liquidation of US$33.12 million

Trading time: BTC bull market score hits a two-year low, and the layout of multiple ETF products is accelerating

3. ETF flows (as of March 20 EST)

  • Bitcoin ETF: $166 million

  • Ethereum ETF: -$12,409,300

4. Today’s Outlook

The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market value today: Orca (ORCA) up 67.54% in 24 hours, Bone ShibaSwap (BONE) up 28.10%, X Empire (X) up 23.78%, Vana (VANA) up 19.32%, LayerZero (ZRO) up 18.49%

Trading time: BTC bull market score hits a two-year low, and the layout of multiple ETF products is accelerating

5. Hot News