Next week's macro outlook: The US election faces the final battle, and the Fed's expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut are almost fully met

PANews reported on November 3 that the final battle of the US election next week may trigger a nuclear-level warning. The bullets of the dollar bulls are "fully loaded". With the worst non-farm payrolls in nearly four years, the expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week is almost fully fired. The market focus next week includes the US election, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the Bank of England's interest rate decision. The US will hold the 2024 presidential election starting next Tuesday. Many major polls still show that Trump and Harris are evenly matched. The following are the macro market points worth paying attention to in the new week:

On Monday, final manufacturing PMIs for France/Germany/Eurozone in October;

Tuesday 09:45, China's October Caixin Services PMI;

On Wednesday, the final service PMI for October in France, Germany and the Eurozone and the monthly PPI rate for September in the Eurozone will be released.

At 07:50 on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting;

At 21:30 on Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced its bond issuance plan for the new quarter;

At 22:45 on Wednesday, the final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI for October will be released; at 23:00, the US Global Supply Chain Stress Index for October will be released;

At 21:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending November 2 will be released; at 23:00, the monthly rate of wholesale sales in the United States in September will be released;

At 03:00 on Friday, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision; at 03:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference;

At 23:00 on Friday, the preliminary value of the US one-year inflation rate forecast for November and the preliminary value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for November will be released.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that hedge funds and managers accumulated $18 billion in long dollar positions before the U.S. election. Currently, Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's promise to impose tariffs will support the dollar at least in the short term. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said that if Trump wins the election and triggers a rebound in U.S. stocks, investors should consider selling. On the contrary, if Harris wins, investors should buy on dips. Citi also believes that the time is ripe for a pullback in U.S. stocks, and if the Republicans win a landslide victory, investors should withdraw. UBS believes that if Trump wins, gold prices will approach the target of $2,900 more quickly, while if Harris wins, gold prices may temporarily fall to $2,600-2,700.