PANews reported on April 5 that crypto analyst Miles Deutscher tweeted in support of Bitcoin, firmly believing that Bitcoin will hit a new ATH between the third quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2026. He believes that people are ignoring the bigger picture and the final rebound will be stronger than ever before. The reasons are as follows:
- Trump’s plan causes short-term pain as it seeks to push down USD/yields (which are currently in the process of the market digesting the new baseline).
- The medium-term scenario is that tariffs will force domestic absorption of treasuries to offset the reduction in foreign purchases (BTC is extremely sensitive to global liquidity).
- The market may bottom out on recession fears (it’s a scary word, markets hate uncertainty), but when a recession officially arrives, the market will already be looking at the Fed’s response.
- The Fed will eventually be forced to cut rates, paving the way for possible QE in 2026 (remember that markets are forward-looking, and in my opinion QE may be less important this year than other liquidity measures - they have options: repo operations, BTFP, Treasury purchases, etc.).
- As for altcoins, the quality offerings will likely follow BTC’s trajectory and find a bottom before recovering — and low-quality projects will be left behind.
- In a tighter liquidity environment, market participants tend to consolidate around higher quality assets (BTC first) and then move down the risk curve once confidence and liquidity improve.
- As for the short term, anything can happen. Trying to predict anything in the 1-12 week range right now is extremely difficult and largely a fool's game.
Being patient is not easy but it is what is needed right now. I will personally increase my exposure in the coming weeks/months as these overall conditions will be quite good from a Q1 perspective next year.
