PANews reported on January 24 that according to The Block, according to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s current price trend is very similar to the patterns of previous market cycles, especially the 2015-2018 cycle.
Glassnode's analysis of Bitcoin's historical market data highlights significant growth in early cycles. The first cycle, which began with the genesis block in 2009 and ended in 2011, saw Bitcoin's price increase by 80.51 times. The subsequent 2011-2015 cycle saw a 55.30-fold increase. However, more recent cycles, such as 2015-2018 and 2018-2022, have seen more modest growth rates of 2.80 and 3.31 times, respectively, reflecting the trend of diminishing returns as Bitcoin matures as an asset class. In its latest report, Glassnode notes that the growth of the current cycle is very close to that of the 2015-2018 cycle. At the corresponding stage of the 2015-2018 cycle, Bitcoin rose by 562%. Today, it has risen by about 630% from the 2022 cycle low of $15,000, suggesting that further growth is possible. However, the size of future gains remains uncertain.
Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet, made a speculative prediction that if Bitcoin could replicate the percentage gains of the 2015-2018 cycle, then it could theoretically reach $1.7 million - an increase of 11,374% from its previous low. However, such predictions highlight the challenges of applying historical patterns to future scenarios. Kan said: While historical cycles provide valuable context, today's market environment is fundamentally different.
