Macroeconomic outlook for next week: "Data frenzy" is coming, Powell and non-agricultural data are blowing up the market, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may be "poured cold water"

PANews reported on November 30 that due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, the market ended this week in a somewhat sluggish manner. The lack of liquidity was obvious on Thursday and Friday, but the US stock market closed surprisingly strongly this week. Driven by technology stocks and retail stocks, the S&P index hit a new high and achieved the largest monthly increase since November 2023. Next week, US employment data will dominate. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

Monday 09:45, China's November Caixin Manufacturing PMI

At 22:45 on Monday, the final value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November

At 04:15 on Tuesday, Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech

At 05:30 on Tuesday, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams participated in a dialogue hosted by the Queens Chamber of Commerce

Tuesday 23:00, US October JOLTs job vacancies

At 01:35 on Wednesday, Fed Governor Kugler will speak on the labor market and monetary policy

Wednesday 21:15, US November ADP employment data

At 21:45 on Wednesday, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Moussalem delivered a speech

Wednesday 22:45, US November S&P Global PMI final value

At 02:45 on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was invited to be interviewed at the DealBook/Summit conference hosted by the New York Times

At 03:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book on economic conditions.

At 21:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending November 30 and the October trade account

At 00:30 on Friday, Barkin, the 2024 FOMC voting member and chairman of the Richmond Fed, delivered a speech

At 22:15 on Friday, Federal Reserve Board member Bowman will give a speech. At 23:30 on Friday, 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat.

At 01:00 on Saturday, Hammack, 2024 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President, will speak on the economic outlook

At 02:00 on Saturday, Daly, 2024 FOMC voting member and President of the San Francisco Fed, delivered a speech

Investors will get a fresh look at the health of the U.S. economy in the coming week, with the release of a closely watched nonfarm payrolls report likely to help investors determine the path of U.S. interest rates in the coming months. Job openings for October, due out on Tuesday, and the ADP employment report for November, due out on Wednesday, could also provide clues about the performance of the U.S. labor market. The market expects the nonfarm payrolls, due to be released next Friday, to increase by 183,000. Last month, nonfarm payrolls increased by just 12,000, far below expectations. Now that Hurricane Milton has cleared up a large number of Florida workers who lost their jobs, nonfarm payrolls could be higher this week, with some analysts predicting a high probability of around 220,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is also a key indicator to watch ahead of the Federal Reserve's December meeting. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.2% and payrolls are unexpectedly weak, the Fed's December rate cut is more likely, which could lead to a weaker dollar.

The probability of the Fed staying on hold in December is 35%, while the probability of pausing rate cuts in January rises to about 58%. Also interesting is that the probability of not cutting rates at both meetings is also expected to be 27%.