共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

探讨预测市场前沿趋势，拆解热门事件的交易策略。本专题涵盖宏观数据分析、平台机制解析与硬核实战案例，旨在帮助读者理解群体智慧与概率博弈，提升在各类预测市场中的决策精准度与风险管理能力。

42 articles
Stop betting on gut feeling: AI is making money on Polymarket.
This article details how to build an automated arbitrage system using Perplexity AI, Claude, and Polymarket, achieving stable returns with low barriers to entry and high certainty by capturing the structural information gap between data and market pricing.
区块律动BlockBeats
After making $200 passively, I stumbled into these three "weather pitfalls" in the market prediction.
This article reviews four practical strategies and two typical counterexamples to help you understand the underlying logic of weather-based game theory.
Biteye
Polymarket Smart Money Overview: 26 Long-Term Trackable Addresses (Breakdown by Sector)
We've compiled 26 smart money addresses selected through long-term observation, categorized into five tracks: politics, weather, technology, culture, and sports. Each address is accompanied by a style sketch to help you quickly determine which ones are worth following and how to follow them.
Biteye
How much of the betting business has the prediction market actually taken away?
In an interview, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev mentioned that sports betting companies are certainly aware of the seriousness of the situation and understand that it could completely disrupt their business. Prediction markets have become a new way for millions of Americans to bet on sports events and elections, leading to speculation: how much of the betting market has the prediction market actually taken away?
Bagel 预测市场观察
Polymarket rules have changed; how should those who prefer to drop items respond?
Polymarket has released new Market Integrity Rules, explicitly prohibiting insider trading and market manipulation in response to regulatory pressure. How will these new rules affect users who exploit loopholes for profit and professional arbitrageurs? This article provides an in-depth analysis of the compliance game and market liquidity contradictions behind the rule upgrade.
链捕手 ChainCatcher
Master Polymarket with these 7 tools (with complete tutorial)
This compilation of 7 Polymarket cheat tools covers three major scenarios: trading terminals, data analysis, and information monitoring, helping you track smart money and insider signals.
Biteye
Kalshi and Polymarket jointly invest in a new fund, predicting a major step towards the "ecosystem" of the market.
A former Kalshi employee founded 5c(c) Capital, aiming to raise $35 million to focus on investing in the prediction market sector. The company has secured backing from giants Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as top venture capital firms like a16z. Prediction market trading volume is surging, and the ecosystem is expanding rapidly, emerging as an independent new industry separate from the crypto space.
Odaily星球日报
Did Trump leak information before posting the tweet? Polymarket's unusual betting points to a US-Iran ceasefire by next week.
Polymarket has seen multiple new accounts betting on a ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 31 or April 15, potentially netting hundreds of thousands of dollars. If the ceasefire materializes by the end of the month, the profits could exceed $1 million.
PA荐读
The Growth Path of Polymarket and Kalshi
If we compare 25 years to the Zhenguan era of the prediction market, then 26 years will usher in an even grander Kaiyuan era. This article attempts to dissect the growth history of these two prediction markets and extract reusable growth methodologies for reference.
Bagel 预测市场观察
Polymarket LP做市激励背后的四重真相与费用陷阱
Polymarket推出LP激励计划，优化流动性并引入新收费机制，或成POLY空投关键指标。本文深度解析其运作模式与潜在影响，为参与者提供全面视角。
Odaily星球日报
Earn $200 a day by using AI to predict the weather.
Last Friday, Polymarket launched a market for predicting the daily high temperature at Shanghai Pudong Airport. I built a prediction system over the weekend and earned $200.
Biteye
Prediction Market Practical Guide: How to Integrate Polymarket and Hyperliquid with OpenClaw
Learn step-by-step how to use OpenClaw to connect to Hyperliquid and Polymarket, and let AI place orders for you.
Biteye
Learn how to earn Polymarket LP rewards step by step
This article is specifically written for friends who want to try making money by market making for Polymarket. I will explain from scratch: what kind of markets are suitable for market making, how to place orders to qualify for rewards, and the most common pitfalls in actual operation.
Bagel 预测市场观察
Price spreads exceeding 50% indicate that pre-market arbitrage in crypto stocks is poised to become a new business opportunity in the crypto bear market.
Exploring new entrepreneurial directions in the crypto bear market: the pre-market price spread between crypto and stocks. Analyzing the significant price spreads of popular stocks like Kalshi and Polymarket on platforms such as PreStocks and Jarsy, this study reveals a liquidity bridge and entrepreneurial opportunities connecting crypto and traditional finance.
Odaily星球日报
Turning Stones into Gold: How Did 43 Years of Tennis Data Become a Money-Making Machine for Predictive Markets?
I trained an AI using data from 95,491 sports matches, achieving an accuracy rate of 85%. This article reveals how AI+ELO ratings accurately predict tennis match outcomes.
Bagel 预测市场观察
Prediction Market OpenClaw Practical Guide Part 1: Monitoring, Analysis, and Risk Management
A beginner's guide to predicting the market for shrimp farming, covering everything from environmental setup and analysis to monitoring, and the pitfalls encountered.
Biteye
What is Opinion, the project that's been making headlines lately? A 3-minute guide to understanding this new prediction market project.
Opinion proposes the concept of "Multiplayer Internet," hoping to use market mechanisms to enable dispersed viewpoints to form a priced and verifiable collective consensus on the blockchain.
CoinW研究院专栏
In-depth analysis of PredictFun's acquisition of Probable: BNB's "Eastern ambition" in the prediction market.
Is it still worth participating in BNB Chain's prediction market?
Biteye
Deconstructing 112,000 Polymarket addresses: The top 1% who actually make money are doing these five things.
Why do truly top players never enter the fray when breaking news breaks?
Odaily星球日报
日均成交$2M：如何在Polymarket天气市场“围猎”利润？
这是一份日均 $2M 的 Polymarket 天气赛道研报：揭秘如何利用“短期期权”定价逻辑与执行滞后红利，复刻大神 $13.2 万盈利的“包围网”打法。
Hubble AI