共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

探讨预测市场前沿趋势，拆解热门事件的交易策略。本专题涵盖宏观数据分析、平台机制解析与硬核实战案例，旨在帮助读者理解群体智慧与概率博弈，提升在各类预测市场中的决策精准度与风险管理能力。

51 articles
Is the prediction market a cash cow? A deep dive into its profit model.
The market doesn't sell answers, but rather "disagreements." The greater the disagreement, the stronger the trading impulse, and the higher the transaction fee revenue.
Biteye
Hyperliquid's next piece of the puzzle: HIP-4 turns hedging into a liquidity engine.
Hyperliquid HIP-4 launched on Outcome Market, predicting a paradigm clash between Polymarket and Hyperliquid amid market liquidity challenges.
佐爷歪脖山
A Polymarket survey reveals that 67% of profits go to 0.1% of accounts, leaving ordinary people with virtually no chance.
Retail investors continue to lose money on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, while professional traders devour funds, resulting in a high concentration of wealth. Are you ready to face the truth?
华尔街日报
Polymarket may abandon its blockchain and go solo, sounding alarm bells for Polygon, as public blockchains collectively enter the fray to attract users.
Recently, news has resurfaced that Polymarket is migrating away from Polygon. Faced with the massive user base of this phenomenal application, multiple public blockchains are vying for its users. Polygon has yet to respond positively to this potential "solo" plan.
Nancy
What exactly is the background of 5(c) Capital, which received investment from both Polymarket and Kalshi CEO?
When arch-rivals start betting together: the real signal behind 5(c) Capital.
Anita
This US soldier who profited $400,000 by exploiting military secrets on Polymarket may spend the rest of his life in prison.
A U.S. special forces sergeant major used classified intelligence to predict Maduro's downfall on Polymarket, investing $33,000 and netting $400,000. This marks the first time the U.S. Department of Justice has indicted a man for insider trading in a prediction market, who faces up to 60 years in prison.
哔哔News
A hair dryer "blew" $34,000 away from Polymarket.
A physical oracle attack that manipulated temperature sensors at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport led to the arbitrage of a $34,000 prize on Polymarket.
区块律动BlockBeats
Musk as president? The truth behind Polymarket's outrageous betting: "brushing" (fake orders).
According to Polymarket forecasting data, up to 70% of betting volume in the 2028 US presidential election is concentrated on candidates with less than a 1% chance of winning.
区块律动BlockBeats
Why do you always lose money on Polymarket? Because you're betting on the news, not the rules.
In Polymarket, most people who lose to the front of the car don't lose because of poor judgment, but because they never read the rules carefully.
Biteye
Polymarket is not an all-powerful "truth machine".
Everyone is citing odds, but no one is verifying them.
白话区块链
Stop betting on gut feeling: AI is making money on Polymarket.
This article details how to build an automated arbitrage system using Perplexity AI, Claude, and Polymarket, achieving stable returns with low barriers to entry and high certainty by capturing the structural information gap between data and market pricing.
区块律动BlockBeats
After making $200 passively, I stumbled into these three "weather pitfalls" in the market prediction.
This article reviews four practical strategies and two typical counterexamples to help you understand the underlying logic of weather-based game theory.
Biteye
Polymarket Smart Money Overview: 26 Long-Term Trackable Addresses (Breakdown by Sector)
We've compiled 26 smart money addresses selected through long-term observation, categorized into five tracks: politics, weather, technology, culture, and sports. Each address is accompanied by a style sketch to help you quickly determine which ones are worth following and how to follow them.
Biteye
How much of the betting business has the prediction market actually taken away?
In an interview, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev mentioned that sports betting companies are certainly aware of the seriousness of the situation and understand that it could completely disrupt their business. Prediction markets have become a new way for millions of Americans to bet on sports events and elections, leading to speculation: how much of the betting market has the prediction market actually taken away?
Bagel 预测市场观察
Polymarket rules have changed; how should those who prefer to drop items respond?
Polymarket has released new Market Integrity Rules, explicitly prohibiting insider trading and market manipulation in response to regulatory pressure. How will these new rules affect users who exploit loopholes for profit and professional arbitrageurs? This article provides an in-depth analysis of the compliance game and market liquidity contradictions behind the rule upgrade.
链捕手 ChainCatcher
Master Polymarket with these 7 tools (with complete tutorial)
This compilation of 7 Polymarket cheat tools covers three major scenarios: trading terminals, data analysis, and information monitoring, helping you track smart money and insider signals.
Biteye
Kalshi and Polymarket jointly invest in a new fund, predicting a major step towards the "ecosystem" of the market.
A former Kalshi employee founded 5c(c) Capital, aiming to raise $35 million to focus on investing in the prediction market sector. The company has secured backing from giants Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as top venture capital firms like a16z. Prediction market trading volume is surging, and the ecosystem is expanding rapidly, emerging as an independent new industry separate from the crypto space.
Odaily星球日报
Did Trump leak information before posting the tweet? Polymarket's unusual betting points to a US-Iran ceasefire by next week.
Polymarket has seen multiple new accounts betting on a ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 31 or April 15, potentially netting hundreds of thousands of dollars. If the ceasefire materializes by the end of the month, the profits could exceed $1 million.
PA荐读
The Growth Path of Polymarket and Kalshi
If we compare 25 years to the Zhenguan era of the prediction market, then 26 years will usher in an even grander Kaiyuan era. This article attempts to dissect the growth history of these two prediction markets and extract reusable growth methodologies for reference.
Bagel 预测市场观察
Polymarket LP做市激励背后的四重真相与费用陷阱
Polymarket推出LP激励计划，优化流动性并引入新收费机制，或成POLY空投关键指标。本文深度解析其运作模式与潜在影响，为参与者提供全面视角。
Odaily星球日报