PANews reported on November 4 that Bitfinex Alpha released its latest report "The Calm Before the Storm". After 8 months of volatility, Bitcoin almost broke through its all-time high last week, and then fell sharply. We believe that this round of rise was initially driven by the "Trump Trade" narrative, and then gave way to the continued uncertainty about the results of tomorrow's US presidential election. This lack of confidence is also reflected in the Bitcoin options market. On the eve of the election, the market believed that a Republican victory in the United States would be good for Bitcoin, while a Democratic victory made the outlook more confusing. The average odds of Trump's victory have dropped from 64.9% to 56%. In the options market, the front-end implied volatility of the earliest expiring contracts was unusually stable before the election day (November 5). This low volatility suggests that investors are waiting and waiting for the dust to settle. However, volatility is still expected to surge between November 5 and 8, which may drive large market fluctuations, or if it fails to materialize, it may indicate that the market is more cautious. The altcoin market also performed coldly, with Bitcoin's market share reaching more than 60%, a new high in the cycle. With Bitcoin absorbing the majority of inflows into crypto assets, altcoins are struggling to keep up, and without new catalysts, their prospects for a near-term recovery appear slim. Even with last week’s pullback, Bitcoin’s overall resilience since the September lows remains noteworthy. In short, current market dynamics portend an exciting week ahead.
Bitfinex Alpha: The crypto market may be in the calm before the storm
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