Next week's macro outlook: CPI will make it "even more difficult" for the Fed, and the US dollar index may fall into a quagmire of plummeting

PANews reported on April 6 that market sentiment deteriorated sharply after Trump announced the tariff proposal, which exacerbated concerns about global growth expectations and caused a plunge in U.S. stocks. On Friday, the market value of the S&P 500 index evaporated another $1.5 trillion, with cumulative losses of up to $3.5 trillion in two trading days. Large technology stocks fell, and the Nasdaq index closed more than 20% lower than its record high in December last year, entering a technical bear market. Looking ahead to next week, the outlook for tariffs is far from clear. Investors still need to focus on possible agreements between the United States and other countries, which will help improve market sentiment. If no agreement is reached and more countries respond with tariffs, the market may usher in another painful week. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

At 02:00 on Wednesday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly participated in a dialogue event titled "Federal Reserve Economic Outlook and Work"

At 23:00 on Wednesday, Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin will deliver a speech

Dallas Fed President Logan delivered a welcome speech at an event at 21:30 on Wednesday

At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting.

At 20:30 on Thursday, the US CPI data for March and the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending April 5 will be released.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks at the Economic Club of New York at 0:00 on Friday

Philadelphia Fed President Harker will give a speech on fintech at 00:30 on Friday

Friday 20:30, US March PPI data

At 22:00 on Friday, St. Louis Fed President Moussallem will give a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy

At 22:00 on Friday, the initial value of the US one-year inflation rate forecast for April and the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for April

At 23:00 on Friday, New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy

Given all the current uncertainty, dollar traders will be focusing on the U.S. CPI data for March, which is scheduled to be released next Thursday. Tariffs not only pose a threat to economic activity, but also pose an upside risk to inflation. If the CPI data accelerates further, this may prompt traders to scale back some of their rate cut bets. In addition to the CPI data, PPI data and inflation expectations may also become key market drivers.