Author : @Web3Mario
Summary : In the next week, there is no doubt that the world's attention will be focused on the US election, so I spent some time to carefully sort out the next time nodes and key highlights, and look forward to the subsequent impact. In general, starting from Tuesday, November 5, in the next week, the election results will be announced one after another. During this period, the progress of the results announcement will continue to affect asset prices.
Due to the different election policies of each state, the announcement of the results of the US election will take about a week.
When chatting with my friends, I found that everyone is not very clear about the time rhythm of the next week. Everyone thinks that the results will be announced on the evening of November 5 (Beijing time on the morning of November 6). In fact, due to different policies of each state on ballot processing, counting rules and mail-in ballots, there are differences in the announcement of results. So first of all, I would like to talk about the time rhythm of the US presidential election. Let's start with the overall election rhythm. In the next period of time, the overall rhythm is as follows:
1. Election Day : Election Day in the United States is usually held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Voters will vote for the presidential and vice presidential candidates on this day. This is an indirect election because voters are actually voting for the electoral college members of their state.
2. Electoral College Voting : The United States uses the Electoral College system. The number of electoral votes in each state is determined by the number of congressmen in that state (number of representatives + number of senators), totaling 538 electoral votes. Most states use the "winner-takes-all" rule, that is, winning the majority of votes in a state will get all the electoral votes in that state (Maine and Nebraska are exceptions). A presidential candidate must obtain at least 270 electoral votes to win.
3. Electoral College formally votes : The Electoral College members vote on the second Monday of December to formally elect the president and vice president. The voting results will be sealed and submitted to Congress for certification.
4. Congressional certification : In early January of the following year, the new Congress will convene on January 6 to formally count the votes of the Electoral College. If there are no objections, the election results of the president and vice president will be confirmed.
5. Presidential Inauguration : The president-elect and vice president will be sworn in on January 20, officially becoming the new president and vice president and beginning a four-year term.
So next Tuesday, which is November 5th, most swing states will start voting at 6 a.m. and continue until 7 to 9 p.m. After voting, the counting process will begin, but due to different policies in each state, the results will be announced at different times. Here is a summary of the results in some of the more critical states. The following states tend to announce their results later:
1. California: California allows a longer period for receiving mail-in ballots. As long as the mail-in ballots are mailed on election day and arrive within the specified date, they can be counted in the total number of votes. At the same time, due to the state's large population and the fact that it allows more time to count votes, it is often one of the states in the country that announces complete results the latest.
2. Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania usually starts processing mail-in ballots on Election Day, which leads to a slower counting process, especially in years with a high number of mail-in ballots. And as a key swing state, also known as a "battleground state," Pennsylvania's vote count is usually highly watched, but the counting process is completed relatively late. Therefore, the final results are announced several days after Election Day.
3. Michigan and Wisconsin : These two states also process mail-in ballots on Election Day. As swing states, the small vote gap will lead to longer counting time to ensure accuracy, and ballot processing is usually completed by the evening of the next day.
4. Nevada : Nevada allows mail-in ballots to arrive several days after Election Day, so results may be delayed by a few days, especially in an election year and when the number of ballots is high.
5. North Carolina: North Carolina allows mail-in ballots to be received within nine days after Election Day, as long as the ballots are mailed before or on Election Day. This often delays the release of the final results in the state. Usually, the results are released a week later.
You may find that, apart from California, which is a stronghold of the Democratic Party, most of the states are swing states, and Pennsylvania is a key battleground state. Therefore, in fact, the entire game surrounding the election will reach its climax within a few days after the general election.
The House of Representatives election is also very important because it determines the implementation of the future fiscal policy of the United States.
In addition to the presidential election, the results of the U.S. House of Representatives election are equally important. We know that in the U.S. federal government, the president, the Senate, and the House of Representatives together constitute the core structure of the separation of powers. The president holds executive power, while the Senate and the House of Representatives (collectively known as Congress) hold legislative power. The three are both independent and closely related to achieve checks and balances and supervision. The House of Representatives is the lower house of Congress and has the following main powers:
lLegislation: The House of Representatives drafts and votes on bills, completing legislative functions together with the Senate.
lFinancial power: The U.S. Constitution stipulates that all financial and tax bills must first be introduced by the House of Representatives to ensure that taxpayers have direct representation.
l Impeachment power: The House of Representatives has the power to initiate impeachment against the president or federal officials, but the power of trial belongs to the Senate.
Therefore, it can be said that the distribution of the House of Representatives determines the difficulty for the president to implement his economic policies. The president whose party does not have more than half of the seats is usually called a "minority president", and it is generally very difficult to implement bills. The election of the House of Representatives is held every two years, and in the general election year, the voting for the House of Representatives and the presidential election is usually held on the same day, usually on the first Tuesday of November in each even-numbered year. On this day, voters will vote for the president and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives. Therefore, usually, the results of the two elections will be gradually announced in a similar time period, but the specific order may be different. But usually, because the House of Representatives constituencies are smaller and the ballots are counted faster, the results are closer.
Looking ahead to the aftermath of the election results
In previous articles, we have analyzed the economic policies of the two parties. Here, let's briefly review that Harris of the Democratic Party mainly takes "opportunity economics" as its core economic layer. In summary, it is to increase government investment and increase taxes in the four aspects of housing, medical care, education, and daily necessities to improve the income level of middle-class families. The general market expectation is that Harris' economic policy will further increase the government's fiscal burden and further hit the credit of the US dollar. At the same time, the wealth effect brought about by the large-scale money printing will help push up inflation. However, since it adopts the method of government mandatory intervention to curb the price control of daily necessities, I believe that inflation will be in a general trend of gradually accelerating.
Trump's economic policies can basically be summarized in the following three dimensions: first, low tax rates at home and high tariffs abroad; second, lowering the exchange rate of the US dollar against major manufacturing countries through interest rate cuts and other means; and finally, opposing new energy industries and advocating boosting traditional energy industries; this policy is closely related to the interest groups behind it, the blue-collar class in the Rust Belt. Although isolationism and trade protection policies have been effective in combating foreign products and revitalizing low- and medium-end manufacturing industries in the United States, considering the current industrial structure of the United States, the implementation of these policies will take time and will be accompanied by high inflationary pressure. Even Trump must consider how to use the hegemony of the US dollar to alleviate these problems. There are some signs that he may choose to achieve this goal through Bitcoin, and the reason for this is that Trump has repeatedly expressed his concern about "US Bitcoin production capacity." He advocates ensuring that the remaining Bitcoin will be produced in the United States. Considering his support for traditional energy industries such as oil, stimulating the energy-consuming industry of Bitcoin mining pools will help increase oil demand and increase industrial added value. Secondly, Trump's views on Bitcoin have changed significantly during this term, from originally not recognizing the value of Bitcoin to recognizing its value as a commodity. The logic of this change is still related to the pricing power advantage of the US dollar. Since the current liquidity of Bitcoin is mainly maintained by stablecoins pegged to the US dollar, the US dollar actually holds the pricing power of Bitcoin. By identifying Bitcoin as a commodity and actively promoting this consensus globally, US dollar capital can establish an advantage in this field and reap the benefits.
Therefore, in summary, I believe that if Harris is elected, the "Trump deal" will quickly collapse, and the price of BTC will quickly pull back, but will then re-enter the stage of volatile rise, and other altcoin assets of the security token type will be affected by the wealth effect and reappear in the bull market, which is more similar to the general rise in the market after the 2021 epidemic. If Trump is elected, the price of BTC will also show the phenomenon of "Sell the truth" in the short term, and there will be certain profit-taking and profit-locking operations, but in the next cycle, the price of BTC will quickly open an upward channel, while other altcoin markets are less likely to see a full bull market, and are more likely to receive the spillover of the wealth effect brought about by the appreciation of BTC. Funds will rotate between multiple hot sectors, which is similar to the market after the end of 2023.
Of course, if the elected party becomes a "minority president", the situation will become more complicated, and it will be necessary to continue to pay attention to the game between the two parties on economic policies. The introduction of any bill will go through fierce market games, and price volatility will increase significantly.
