PANews reported on April 3 that according to Jinshi, Michael Feroli, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase, said in a report that Trump's tariffs will bring considerable revenue, but at the cost of rising prices, which may affect consumers' purchasing power. He wrote: "On a static basis, the tariffs announced today will increase revenue by nearly $400 billion, or about 1.3% of GDP. We estimate that the measures announced today may increase personal consumption expenditure prices by 1-1.5% this year, and we believe that the inflationary impact will be realized in the middle of this year. The resulting blow to purchasing power may cause real disposable personal income growth to turn negative from the second quarter to the third quarter, resulting in a possible contraction in real consumer spending in these quarters. This impact alone could put the economy in a dangerous position of recession."
In addition, JPMorgan analysts estimate that more than a third of emerging market companies could be significantly affected after the US trade tariffs take effect. The bank estimates that 36% of the more than 750 companies covered by the CEMBI Emerging Market Corporate Debt Index, which JPMorgan closely follows, could be affected, and 16% of them could be hit significantly.
