Next week's macro outlook: Investors will continue to focus on Trump's transition plan, and the Fed's rate cut expectations may continue to be frustrated

PANews reported on November 16 that the Republican Party completed three consecutive victories in the White House and both houses of Congress this week, adding fuel to the "Trump deal", but at the same time, strong US economic and inflation data continued to reshape the market's expectations of the speed and extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts. This week, due to the unexpected economic data such as US retail sales, traders increased their bets on the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts in December, and the market generally showed a hawkish reaction. US stocks fell collectively, with the S&P 500 index falling 2.08% for the week, the Nasdaq index falling 3.15%, the largest single-week drop in more than two months, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.24%. As the list of Trump's cabinet members was released one after another, there were earthquakes of varying degrees in parts of Wall Street.

Thanks to the prospect of a more cautious rate cut by the Federal Reserve under Trump, the U.S. dollar index has risen for seven consecutive weeks, once reaching the 107 mark. Next week, the market focus will include speeches by central bank officials and important data such as the number of initial jobless claims in the United States. The key points to focus on include:

At 12:45 on Monday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech;

At 18:00 on Tuesday, the final annual CPI value of the euro area in October and the initial monthly CPI value of the euro area in October will be released;

At 21:00 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending November 16 and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for November;

At 1:25 on Friday, 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in a question-and-answer session at a conference;

At 7:30 on Friday, Japan’s October core CPI annual rate will be released;

At 16:30 on Friday, ECB President Lagarde will speak at the European Banking Conference;

At 22:45 on Friday, the final values of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the US S&P Global Services PMI for November will be released;

At 23:00 on Friday, the preliminary value of the US one-year inflation rate forecast for November and the preliminary value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for November will be released.

Next week's economic calendar is light again, and if data confirms the resilience of the US economy again, gold prices may be more depressed against the backdrop of further cooling expectations of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. In addition, after the rally driven by the US election stalled, US stock investors turned their attention to technology stocks and artificial intelligence trading. Nvidia will report earnings next Wednesday, which will also be its first earnings report after being included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Investors will continue to focus on Trump's transition plan, including his choices for key cabinet positions. Some of his initial appointments have led to weakness in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and defense stocks. Thursday's stock market fell after Powell said that the Federal Reserve was not in a hurry to cut interest rates, so the direction of monetary policy may once again become the dominant factor in the market. US stocks have erased half of their gains since the election.