There are two aspects to holding good assets for a long time: one is to make money within your cognition; the other is that money is often very likely to be non-linear, beyond everyone's initial cognition.
Compiled by: E2M Research
This article is compiled from E2M Research's space "Conjectures and Refutations" every Friday.
The book "Conjectures and Refutations" has brought a lot of benefits to several speakers of E2M Research. We hope that we can not only read it, but also apply its good ideas to practice and even verify them in our own investment cases.
As we believe: There are many things in the world that are not black and white. There are many "third-party thoughts" that encourage us to constantly look for better explanations, encourage everyone to make bold guesses, actively refute, and carefully verify the real-life results.
The market has been rising recently. How to hold good assets for a long time? How to re-invest after selling? It is worth discussing again. The guests also exchanged their own industry experience.
Full audio:
https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episodes/673b43ef43dc3a43879d5cb8
Highlights
Bitfish Twitter: @bitfish1
The dimension of a good asset is to make long-term judgments based on current cognition. If its development curve, future growth trend and key turning points are already met at the moment, it will be placed in the basket of good assets and compared with other assets.
The final core question is how to hold good assets for a long time after discovering them?
Hold on, the core point that needs to be emphasized here is not the rational level, but more the psychological level, so we need to establish some methods and rules while we are still rational to ensure that we can remain relatively rational when we are in the fomo state.
How to build this architecture?
Here we have to mention the "position management method", which requires dividing the asset pool into four pools:
The first is a cold wallet, which is mainly used to store coins. It creates various obstacles to make it difficult for you to access it. You put your core assets in it, which probably accounts for more than 60% of your assets.
The second is the warm wallet. The so-called warm wallet system is mainly used to manage assets and can provide cash flow in a relatively safe and stable manner, allowing us to provide a more stable mentality in extremely pessimistic situations, and we will probably release 20% to 30%.
The third is a hot wallet, which is mainly used for consumption, trial and error with speculative assets, product trial experience, and experience in judging whether it is a good asset in the future. The asset size is probably a few percent or even less. If the size of this wallet really increases due to speculative consumption, it will be immediately transferred to a warm wallet or a corresponding cold wallet.
The remaining one is a fiat currency wallet. There is a small principle here, which is the 4% principle: 4% of the asset size in the fiat currency wallet is equal to the annual expenditure. Assuming that the previous wallets suffer an accident, the deposit interest or treasury bond interest generated by the fiat currency wallet can basically cover daily life, which can basically be said to be a life reserve and isolated asset.
Zhen Dong Twitter @zhendong2020
If you hold Crypto assets or Tesla now, you need to understand more about models like the evolution of complex systems or nonlinear growth and innovation diffusion. Because in today's Internet age, the speed, efficiency and cost of information dissemination or knowledge dissemination we can see have increased exponentially compared to decades ago.
To understand good assets, you first need certain basic knowledge. One important reason that prevents many people from holding good assets is that most people now have a wrong understanding of long-term holding, or the biggest enemy of long-term holding of good assets is the enthusiasm for short-term trading. Many people confuse long-term holding and short-term trading.
What did Popper say was most important? More intellectual humility was most important.
How to analyze what is a good asset? You should continue to make positive and good investment decisions that have long-term compound interest, rather than repeating the same old useless work. Humility means knowing that you may make mistakes, and once you realize you have made a mistake, you should constantly change and adjust.
Odyssey Twitter @OdysseysEth
There are two key points to long-term holding of good assets: one is understanding, and the other is long-term. Understanding can be divided into two types: one is rational understanding, and the other is emotional understanding. How to understand? The things constructed when buying will take effect at the cognitive and emotional levels at the same time when selling. How to construct when buying? This is the question of how to understand good assets.
There are several points in the process of building cognition, and all of them will come into play when selling.
The first point is not to ask about those early assets, because they have not sold past the critical point. If you don’t understand it at the beginning, you will naturally not touch it, and you will not sell it later. If you have passed the critical point when you enter, you will be more focused when you look at it again, and your understanding will be very deep.
The second point is to think about and verify monopoly from multiple dimensions. If you buy because of monopoly, then the reason for selling will only be the disappearance of monopoly or the emergence of a better monopolist. This symmetry can be completely constructed. Understanding the process of monopoly will enable us to have a richer understanding of user needs and the overall potential market, etc. This process will bring a lot of rational construction and emotional construction.
There are two aspects to holding a good asset for a long time:
One aspect is to make money within your cognition. If you have thought clearly about the long-term product roadmap from the beginning and have achieved the long-term product roadmap, should you sell it at this time? Not necessarily. Some people can indeed make this part of money, but those who are unlucky cannot make money beyond cognition.
On the other hand, money is often nonlinear, beyond everyone's initial cognition. As an investor, you need to be able to accept this part of the surprise. You don't need to use the limited rational brain of 10 years ago to predict the future, but you can build this asymmetry to accept the benefits of the future. How to accept the benefits of the future? After owning an asset, you can recognize its characteristics, admit that it is a good asset and believe that it can be better than you imagined.
How to increase the position after selling? In fact, it is more of a psychological problem, of course, it also includes cognitive problems. The cognitive aspect is that if you increase the position with the monopoly, based on this mentality, you will naturally not care whether the price was high or low before, because the increase in position with the monopoly has long been decoupled from the price. The most important thing about re-positioning is that you have sold it before. For almost everyone, correcting a mistake is very painful. Many people think that investment is just investment, but it is not. Behind investment lies a desire to prove oneself or a desire to solve the current troubles in life. Many times, to make a good investment decision, you must first solve this layer of desire or the psychological problem behind it. If you are overwhelmed by some very strong desire at the beginning, it is difficult to make a rational investment decision.
Q. Why do we need to establish a position management system?
I have counted some of the more important decisions I made in trading, and my winning rate was only a little over 40% and no more than 45%. So later on, when I made important decisions, I would write a decision log, analyzing the various situations and my emotions at the time, and then analyzing my understanding of the development of the world, my judgment on the future of this event, why I made such a decision and whether I would regret it, and then review it again after six months or a year.
In the end, we will find that the world is unknown, and our modeling and rationality of this real world are limited. During the modeling process, we must ensure that we have an open mind and brain.
Some painful mistakes are essentially information given to us by the real world. The key to whether a person can grow is to not get caught up in the emotions when the real world gives us real and effective feedback and information, and to be able to review, think, and iterate afterwards. (Bitfish Twitter @bitfish1)
Q. Which is more difficult? Finding good assets or selling them off and then buying them again?
It is more difficult to invest heavily than to find good assets. Many people around me who hold Bitcoin sell it after making some profits. Few people can buy it back after selling it, let alone invest heavily. Investing heavily means investing a large proportion of assets in an asset type, which is a challenging thing in itself.
Although I had done a lot of research when I bought Tesla, I found that I still couldn't buy it when I actually bought it. I could only buy an absolute value. So I found that human nature is a little bit not used to such large numbers. Including when I played Texas Hold'em before, I also found that the increase in the absolute value of chips would bring psychological pressure. Although it is not much from the perspective of the proportion of assets, the absolute value will still be involuntarily compared with normal expenses.
The more difficult part of re-entering a position after selling at a loss is facing the mistake. Admitting a mistake is not just about admitting it. It is a process that requires a lot of reconstruction of one's underlying logic. Secondly, the attitude towards mistakes is also a problem in many cases, because sometimes it is associated with personal image, and it is considered shameful to admit mistakes. Some ordinary people think that making mistakes is shameful, but many smart people think that not being able to correct mistakes is more shameful.
Popper's scientific philosophy framework is also an antidote. From a philosophical perspective, we can understand that the entire human race is moving forward by relying on these mistakes. The only way to create new knowledge is to make guesses and refute them. In this process, we can eliminate those wrong guesses, and the guesses that remain are relatively correct. This means that even if the process of making mistakes is inevitable, it is also the only way for us to find new knowledge. (Peicai Li Twitter @pcfli)
