Gold extended its gains on Tuesday, while U.S. stocks and crypto markets moved sideways.
According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin bulls continue to be hindered by the resistance level between $68,000 and $70,000. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $67,672, with a 24-hour volatility of less than 1%.
In the past 24 hours, altcoins have been sluggish, with the top 200 tokens falling more than rising. The top gainers were Popcat (POPCAT), up 9.8%; Ponke (PONKE), up 9.4%; Uniswap (UNI), up 4.7%; the biggest loser was ApeCoin (APE), down 17.4%; followed by Scroll (SCR), down 13.3%; and dYdX (DYDX), down 10%.
The current overall market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.33 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for 57.3% of the market share.
In the US, the S&P and Dow Jones closed basically flat, while the Nasdaq closed up 0.18%. Spot gold hit a new intraday high of more than $2,748 per ounce.
In November, Bitcoin options OI concentrated at $80,000. Is $100,000 just a matter of time?
According to data from cryptocurrency exchange Deribit, Bitcoin open interest (OI) — the value or number of open futures contracts that have not yet expired — for call contracts expiring at the end of November is concentrated around $80,000.
While many analysts have linked BTC’s performance to an increased chance of a Trump victory, David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, said in a Bloomberg interview that Bitcoin “is likely to do well regardless of the outcome of the election.”
“It feels like a new all-time high for Bitcoin is inevitable and getting closer and closer,” LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger said in a note. “The market has performed very well in recent days, which is consistent with seasonal trend analysis that predicts a strong performance in October.”
He added: “The next significant hurdle is $70,000, which coincides with the July 2024 high and is close to the all-time high of $73,835 set in March. Options and strike prices have struggled to remain capped so far. But it looks like pressure is building to break through the $70,000 resistance level, which could set the stage for a breakout above all-time highs based on our technical analysis.”
As for the price of Bitcoin on the eve of the election, John Glover, chief investment officer of Ledn, noted that “support is currently at $65,000, and I think the BTC price will test the previous high of $73,000 in the days before the election.”
Analysts generally believe that the upcoming US election is the main influencing factor in the current cryptocurrency market, but according to TradingView analyst TradingShot, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle will soon become the main driver of the cryptocurrency market.
“It’s been a while since we last used Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) to analyze Bitcoin, but now is the perfect time to publish an update, with the U.S. presidential election just two weeks away and the market poised for a bull breakout, this time around we’re looking at how prices trade on this date every 4 years,” he wrote in an update on Tuesday.
TradingShot explains: “BTC’s trading cycle is roughly 4 years, remains highly symmetrical, and the trend is likely to repeat each time. Currently, near the end of October (2024), the price is trading within the average MM (black trendline) and the first SD above (gray trendline). It has begun to rise from the average MM.”
He noted: "According to the 4-year cycle theory, the movements in October 2020, October 2016 and October 2012 are in a highly similar range, with a very significant degree of symmetry, which is once again confirmed by this indicator. We can also see that every 4 years at this time, the price has begun to rise from the average MM, just like now. The green rectangle in the above figure shows the date range between this 4-year interval and the peak of the bull market cycle. In October 2012, it took 58 weeks (406 days) to peak, October 2016 was 60 weeks (420 days), and October 2020 was 55 days (385 days). So in terms of time, the cycle tends to peak at roughly the same period."
TradingShot believes: “Again assuming a ‘worst case scenario’ of ‘only’ hitting the 2 SD trendline, we can target a range of 190k – 250k, depending on whether price hits the range midway or near the end of the 55 week range. Nevertheless, Bitcoin appears to be embarking on an exciting rally.”
