PANews reported on November 4 that according to CoinDesk analysis, Bitcoin, which was born in 2009, is about to usher in the fourth US election. Data from the first three elections show that Bitcoin has always maintained an upward momentum after the US election and has never fallen back to the price on election day. If this trend reappears, the price of Bitcoin should peak in about a year.
- The 2012 U.S. election was also held on November 5, when the price of Bitcoin hovered around $11. In November 2013, the price of Bitcoin peaked, with an increase of nearly 12,000%, and the price of Bitcoin climbed to over $1,100.
- In the first week of the US election in November 2016, the price of Bitcoin was about $700. In December 2017, the price of Bitcoin peaked at around $18,000, an increase of about 3,600%.
- In November 2020, the U.S. election took place at the same time as the COVID-19 pandemic, and Bitcoin rose 478% a year later to a market high of about $69,000. In March 2024, Bitcoin hit a new high of more than $73,000.
After each halving event, although the price of Bitcoin is much higher than it was four years ago, the gains have narrowed and the returns have gradually decreased. The percentage drop between the first and second numbers is 70%, and between the second and third numbers is 87%. If we continue this trend and assume that the drop is about 90% this time, it means that the post-election increase is about 47.8%. This would put Bitcoin at about $103,500 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
