PANews reported on February 19 that according to The Block, Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, analyzed in a report that Bitcoin is still in a low volatility range. As risk-averse traders pushed down yields, volatility and trading volumes to multi-month lows, Bitcoin fell slightly by 2% this week. Lunde wrote that although the Trump administration, which supports cryptocurrencies, is a long-term positive factor for Bitcoin and the entire crypto industry, short-term uncertainty has led to sluggish market activity. Bitcoin's various indicators are weakening across the market. Trading volume, yields, option premiums and ETF inflows have all fallen to pre-US dollar election levels. Amid these downturns, volatility has also fallen to multi-month lows.
Lunde highlighted that 37% of the top 100 US companies currently have higher 30-day volatility than Bitcoin, a situation not seen since October 2023. But he also warned that such periods of low volatility rarely last for long and traders should be prepared for sudden changes. Lunde said: "Overall risk aversion suggests that traders are prepared for downside volatility, while the current moderate leverage levels suggest that there is less overhang risk of a wave of liquidations."
Lunde's analysis of CME Bitcoin futures shows that the premium has recently fallen below 5%, which he noted is a rare occurrence. When looking at data from 2021 to 2025, Lunde found that low premiums generally coincide with weaker market performance, a condition that could be affected by the prolonged bear market in 2022. Lunde stressed that Bitcoin tends to perform best under a strong basis regime and called for caution amid current market uncertainty.
