PANews reported on November 4 that QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto investment firm, said in a statement: “As Polymarket’s odds get closer to actual poll results, the race between Harris and Trump is heating up. Although Polymarket’s odds are still more favorable to Trump at 55%, this is a significant drop from 66% a week ago. Smaller price swings over the weekend and a reduction in leveraged perpetual contract positions on various exchanges from 30 billion to 26 billion indicate that the market remains cautious.
So does this portend a period of calm before breaking out of the multi-month price range and heading for new all-time highs? The options market seems to think so, as we have seen an increase in high positioning since last Friday, with heavy buying of options with a strike price of $75,000 expiring at the end of November. At the same time, with realized volatility remaining at 40% and implied volatility having climbed to over 87% on Friday, options positioning related to the election date has also increased.
We expect spot prices to trade in this range until there is more clarity on the election outcome this week. A Trump win would likely trigger an immediate price increase, while a Harris win would likely trigger a price decrease.”
