PANews reported on November 1 that according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 99.7%, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 0.3%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate by December is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 19.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 80.3%.
Before the release of the non-agricultural data, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering the interest rate by 25 basis points by November was 93.1%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate was 6.9%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate by December was 5.2%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points was 94.8%.