PANews reported on April 3 that according to Jinshi, CICC said today that after calculation, if the tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate of the United States will rise sharply by 22.7 percentage points from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%. This level exceeds the extreme situation previously expected. For the United States, if the above tariffs continue, the US economy will face a more severe risk of "stagflation". Tariffs are essentially an increase in taxes by the government, and companies and consumers bear the costs, which is equivalent to fiscal tightening. Trump's tariff increase will lead to the withdrawal of money from the private sector to the government sector, a decrease in the net assets of the private sector, and investment and consumer spending will be suppressed. Economic growth will inevitably decline; tariffs will also push up the price level and increase the upward pressure on inflation in the short term. CICC said that without considering the impact of exchange rate changes, calculations show that on the basis of previous tariffs, adding reciprocal tariffs may push up US PCE inflation by 1.9 percentage points, increase US fiscal revenue by US$737.4 billion, and reduce the US real GDP growth rate by 1.3 percentage points. Faced with the risk of "stagflation", the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates in the short term. The difficulty for the Fed to cut interest rates means the absence of the "Fed put option", which will further increase the downside risks of the US economy and increase downward pressure on the market.