Let’s talk about Ethereum’s new dealer theory in depth: Who is the new dealer? When will the wash be completed?

Let me first state the conclusion: everyone is unhappy at 98,000 Bitcoin, but retail investors are excited at 3,200 Ethereum, which shows that most retail investors do not have Bitcoin, and the Ethereum car is still too heavy, and most people have not been washed off the car yet.

I have been cheering and comforting myself for so long. If Ethereum really fails to get up this time and becomes the new generation of "EOS", I just want to say: If Vitalik Buterin doesn't apologize, I will beat you up every time I see you.

The “Ethereum change of dealer” theory has sparked a lot of discussion among ETH staunch holders and staunch opponents. Here are some additional thoughts:

1. Who is Xinzhuang?

In this wave of market cleansing, the wild market manipulation of the industry’s old OGs (the people who did ICO in the early days) has become the regular market manipulation of Wall Street financial institutions, and national-level market manipulation may appear in the future.

But TVBee provided a new idea: when POW turns to POS, the dealer must be changed. The original mining pool no longer has a sustainable profit model, so it does not want to pull the price. New mining pools may enter the market, but they do not have enough chips to pull the price. However, when ETH falls, it does not fall too much, because the new dealer takes over the market.

That is to say, after Ethereum switched to POS, the old miners' position as the banker was replaced by the new miners' position as the banker of POS.

However, Ethereum successfully upgraded in September 2022, with a bear market of more than a year in between. Why was there no sufficient turnover during the bear market?

On the contrary, ETH has been sluggish in 2024, especially after the ETF was passed, the BTC/ETH exchange rate has been falling all the way, so it may not be that the pow is replaced by the pow dealer, but that the ICO veterans are replaced by Wall Street dealers.

2. Regarding the Ethereum dealer change theory, is it a story you tell yourself?

Many signals have appeared in the market, such as the previous approval of the ETF, the expectation of starting staking now, the increase in holdings by top addresses, etc. These are all objective positive information.

In general, the fundamentals of ETH have not changed, and it is still the source of many innovations; and with the support of ETF, there are unreleased benefits of staking; plus, the top addresses are increasing their holdings, so how can they hand over their chips at this time?

3. There are indeed many advantages, but we must also face up to some problems of Ethereum:

Compared with Bitcoin, Ethereum is not well recognized by outsiders, so traditional financial institutions will only pay attention to Ethereum when they are looking for new opportunities after they have fully allocated Bitcoin.

Compared with other Layer 1 public chains, especially Solana, ETH’s biggest problem is that it places too much emphasis on the infrastructure layer and insufficient development of the application layer.

In particular, the trend of decentralization (decoupling from C-end users) has caused the narrative of Ethereum to be increasingly distant from the actual needs of ordinary users. Naturally, how can ordinary users hold ETH? The ETH ecosystem needs a killer application.

Among them, solving the liquidity fragmentation through L2 interoperability is very critical. The biggest problem with Ethereum leading a group of L2 brothers to fight is that this group of L2s is loose, which not only leads to poor user experience, but also disperses liquidity.

Therefore, L2 interoperability is particularly important, and some solutions have indeed emerged, such as chain abstraction.

4. Carve Sol and ask for the sword

Compared with Solana, Sol's change of dealers is after the FTX incident, but ETH currently has no major negative news to wash many people out, so it can only use time to exchange for space. Therefore, ETH's change of dealers is a long-term wash.

Someone asked: What are the disadvantages of Solana compared to Ethereum?

Solana is an enhanced version of Ethereum, which improves performance but sacrifices decentralization and security.

When people mention Solana, they just think of it as a very fast Ethereum.

Ethereum's consensus, ecology, and community are all implicit moats.

Simply put, you cannot defeat WeChat by making a smoother WeChat, and you cannot defeat Ethereum with an Ethereum with better performance.

In market competition, there is only dimensionality reduction attack, and there is no parallel replacement.

Solnana did not cause a dimensionality reduction attack on Ethereum, which is its original "shortcoming".

5. ETH’s car is too heavy

ETH has a momentum to wash out all small retail investors and medium- and long-term investors. The main reason is that ETH's car is too heavy and too many people are optimistic about it. Without major negative news, most people can only be washed out through a long period of washing.

Most retail investors do not have Bitcoin, but they basically all have Ethereum.

Everyone wants higher excess returns, and looks down on Bitcoin's "stable" returns. Between Bitcoin and Bitcoin, they choose Bitcoin, which seems to have more room for growth. This makes Bitcoin's car heavier, which ultimately leads to the current situation.

6. The BTC/ETH exchange rate has dropped from 0.05 to 0.03. Will it continue to decline in the future?

The bull market in the Crypto industry is short and the bear market is long. The bull market in a cycle only lasts for more than a year. In addition, this round of bull market started early. If it continues, the bull market will be gone. Therefore, the probability of this happening is very small.

7. Someone asked: Why didn’t you slowly change hands of ETH when the price was low before, but change it here now that it has risen?

One reason may be that the ETH ETF was approved too quickly, exceeding market expectations. At that time, many people believed that it would not be approved until at least the second half of 2024. This caused the price of ETH to rise rapidly at that time, but the turnover was insufficient.

8. Can this wave replace Mr. Sun Yuchen?

All I can say is that the big cuts are still big cuts, and they are always there. Who can cut Sun Yuchen? You know, Sun Yuchen has 700,000 Ethereums, which is worth 2.1 billion US dollars at the price of 3,000 US dollars. If you want to wash Sun Yuchen out, it will take a very long time.

9. There are so many people fud Ethereum in the market, do you want to change your position?

I can only say that I have to hold on even if I cry. I have held on for so long, and have already held on for a round of bear market. The sunk cost is too high. If I change my position at this time, I may fall before dawn.

10. When can Ethereum lead the altcoin season?

All I can say is that I can’t guess the time, but I can see the trend.

Just like we can’t guess what the temperature will be tomorrow, but we can feel the seasonal change that winter is coming.