Author: Scof, ChainCatcher
Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher
Homework review time - This article takes you through a one-stop review of the popular predictions and actual performance of the crypto industry in 2024, and sees how many of the market predictions made by top investment research institutions such as Binance Labs, Coinbase Venture, a16z, Messari, Pantera Capital, etc. last year have been fulfilled? After all, their predictions for this year are out again.
Prediction is a contest of intelligence and vision, and the market gives the answer with ruthless reality. Get ready and take a look at the crypto world of this year!
❌ means the prediction is wrong or not completely correct
☑️ means the prediction is correct
⭕️ represents not completely accurate, there is room for discussion
Binance Labs
Related reading: Binance Research Annual Report: 8 Key Priorities for 2024
2024 Forecast:
⭕️ Bitcoin narrative remains at the forefront, Ordinals and BRC-20 ecosystem are expected to develop further
☑️Decentralized physical network infrastructure (DePin) further development
☑️ Further development of decentralized social media (DeSoc)
☑️ Increased artificial intelligence (AI) integration
☑️ Real World Assets (RWA) Growth
❌Liquidity management and RFQ systems are booming
☑️More institutions join the crypto space
☑️ Account abstraction becomes more important
Summarize:
Overall, the market in 2024 has verified most of the predictions of Binance Research Institute, especially in the areas of AI integration, institutional participation, and tokenization of real-world assets . Although Bitcoin ecosystems such as Ordinals and BRC-20 had a very good start in early 2024, they did not develop further as expected as Bitcoin prices continued to set new records. Instead, they were forgotten by the market and fell into silence during the sector rotation. In addition, the "further development" of decentralized social media (DeSoc) is true to a certain extent. The social track has welcomed new stars such as Farcaster, UXLINK, and CyberConnect, and has also experienced the fall of Friend.Tech and stagnation of development. Compared with other tracks, the development of the decentralized track still faces many controversies and challenges.
Coinbase Venture
Related reading: " Coinbase 2024 Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin's dominance is further strengthened, and DePIN and decentralized computing are optimistic "
2024 Prediction:
☑️ Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, institutional investment is concentrated in Bitcoin
☑️ The macroeconomic environment supports cryptocurrencies
☑️ Web3 applications continue to grow, bridging the gap between early adopters and mainstream users
☑️ Tokenization and asset digitization attract traditional financial institutions
☑️ The rise of decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) and decentralized computing
☑️ Regulatory and regulatory developments to drive institutional participation
☑️ More user-friendly experience and technological innovation
Summarize:
These forecasts are largely consistent with current market dynamics, especially the dominance of Bitcoin and the increase in institutional investment, which have already emerged in 2024. Macroeconomically, due to the inauguration of the Trump administration and the realization of expectations for interest rate cuts, cryptocurrencies have gradually become an investment target for traditional institutions.
Coinbase's 2025 outlook is out -
Related reading: Transformative Growth: Coinbase 2025 Bitcoin Crypto Market Outlook Research Report Full Text
a16z
Related reading: " a16z 2024 Outlook List: Modularity, AI, Web3 Games... "
2024 Prediction:
☑️ Technological advances that improve user experience
☑️ The value of modular technology is enhanced
☑️ The potential of combining AI and blockchain
☑️ Transform from "earning by playing" to "earning while playing"
❌ The popularity of NFTs as brand assets
SNARKs technology matures
Summarize :
Obviously, a16z misjudged the development of NFT last year. NFT can even be said to have encountered its darkest moment this year. In the last bull market, NFT of luxury goods pushed brand assetization to a climax. In addition, compared with last year, the decline of Layer2 and cross-chain bridges under the background of the meme craze has made the entire crypto market have very little discussion on project fundamentals and pure technology. The popularization of SNARKs technology faces challenges, but overall, the industry will still develop in a more operational, participatory and diversified direction.
a16z’s 2025 outlook is out——
Related reading: " A16Z Outlook 2025 New Crypto Trends: What Industry Changes Will AI, Decentralization and Stablecoins Bring About? "
Messari
Related reading:
2024 Prediction:
☑️Optimistic outlook for emerging narratives
Messari is optimistic about emerging narratives such as DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure network), AI, DeSoc (decentralized society), and DeSci (decentralized science). At the same time, it is strongly optimistic about the combination of AI and cryptocurrency , and believes that these directions will continue to connect Web3 concepts with the social and technological fields of the real world.
❌ The potential of DeSoc (decentralized social networking)
❌Circle may IPO in 2024
☑️ The rise of DeSci (decentralized science)
☑️ Bearish on Ethereum. Compared with Solana, Ethereum does not have an overwhelming advantage
Summarize :
As a veteran investment research institution, Messari did not disappoint. It accurately hit the "AI agent" track, which has had many eye-catching performances this year, and also showed goodwill to the DeSci track, which was not hot last year. In addition, their speculation about Solana and ETH as the "king of public chains" has also been strongly verified by the market. SOL's strong performance this year has been obvious to all, and it has caused many people to question the subsequent bull market price of the Ethereum system. Unfortunately, their judgment on DeSoc is slightly different from the actual situation, and DeSoc has not successfully reproduced the craze similar to the "DeFi Summer" in 2022.
Messari’s 2025 outlook is out——
Related reading: " Interpreting Messari's Cryptocurrency Industry Outlook for 2025: Bitcoin will be better next year, and the Meme craze will continue "
Pantera capital
Related reading:
Pantera Capital: Crypto Outlook 2024
Pantera Capital Partners Release 6 Predictions for the Crypto Field in 2024
2024 Prediction:
❌ Bitcoin’s resurgence and “DeFi Summer 2.0”
☑️ The rise of tokenized social experiences
☑️ Increase of TradFi-DeFi “bridges” such as stablecoins and mirror assets
☑️Combination of modular blockchain and zero-knowledge proof (ZKP)
❌ On-chain computing for intensive applications
☑️ Integration of blockchain ecosystem and application chain model
☑️Artificial Intelligence: Fusion of Human and Computer Intelligence
Summarize:
Like many other institutions, Pantera Capital also misjudged the trend of the Bitcoin ecosystem due to the strong performance of inscriptions in 2023 and the second-layer narrative of Bitcoin. 2024 can be called the year of Bitcoin (its increase far exceeds that of most altcoins), but even if the Bitcoin ecosystem has good growth, it still cannot be called "Summer of DeFi 2.0". It is worth mentioning that as everyone discovers that the stablecoin business is very profitable, TradFi-DeFi will usher in good growth in 2024. In addition, like other institutions, Pantera also predicted that AI will usher in a big explosion and growth in 2024.
OKX venture
Related reading:
OKX Ventures 2024 Outlook: Key Projects and 7 Predictions
OKX Ventures Bitcoin Outlook Report 2024
2024 Forecast:
⭕️ BTC expansion and application explosion, on-chain activity improves network security
☑️ Ethereum Cancun upgrade improves Layer2 availability and leads the industry forward
☑️ With Solana as a representative, the Alt-layer1 ecosystem will benefit from the industry recovery
☑️ AI narrative and Web3 technology are closely integrated, and new applications emerge
❌ A new paradigm for blockchain games: FOCG (Fully Onchain Game) single point breakthrough
☑️ DePIN continues to maintain high growth
☑️ The macro environment is improving, entering a new era of encryption
Summarize:
Judging from the overall performance this year, OKX Venture's expectations for blockchain games are still too optimistic. Projects in the FOCG paradigm have not seen significant growth, and GameFi is still just shouting the slogan of "easiest to attract traffic" but has not seen significant user growth. In addition, the performance of the DePin project this year can only be considered passing. There are some remarkable projects, but the volatility of profitability and potential privacy issues are still two major difficulties to be solved. Overall, there is still a lot of room for research on how the Crypto field can attract more users from Web 2.
OKX Venture’s 2025 outlook is out——
Related reading: " OKX Ventures Annual Report: 60+ Project Layout and 14 Major Trends Outlook "
Blockworks
Related reading:
Blockworks' Outlook on the Crypto Market in 2024
2024 Forecast:
☑️ The rise of Solana :
Solana's market capitalization may approach or even surpass Ethereum, and will have a significant wealth effect in the NFT and DeFi fields.
There will be multiple rounds of airdrops and at least ten unicorn companies within the Solana ecosystem.
☑️Evolution of Ethereum :
Ethereum’s developer activity and connectivity will grow further, and the narrative will shift away from “supersonic currency”.
Ethereum’s L2 technology will develop, but interoperability issues may not be resolved in 2024.
❌ The boom of NFT market :
NFTs will see growth due to the wealth effect and capital inflow, with some series (such as Mad Lads) potentially having a minimum price of $100,000 each.
JPEG investment will become an important trend in the first and second quarters of 2024.
☑️The resurgence of Bitcoin :
The launch of Bitcoin’s L2 will boost the activity of DeFi and other ecosystems, possibly breaking through historical highs.
Bitcoin ETFs could be approved in early 2024, but their market impact remains unclear.
☑️ The future of DeFi :
The Solana and Ethereum ecosystems will see new DeFi projects and activity.
The popularity of staking may bring about issues of security and vulnerability.
☑️Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency :
Artificial intelligence-related tokens will reach their frenzy peak in 2024, with a market value that may exceed $100 billion.
The linkage between cryptocurrency and traditional markets :
❌ Coinbase will further transform into a bank-like institution, with a valuation that may exceed $100 billion.
☑️ The United States will re-emerge as the center of crypto activity in 2024, alternating with Asia to lead the market.
❌The potential of games and social finance :
Games will become an important catalyst for cryptocurrency retail participation. Social finance and music NFTs may become new hot spots in the market.
Blockworks' 2025 outlook is out——
Summarize:
Blockworks’ predictions for the crypto market in 2024 have been partially validated. Solana’s strong rise does match the predictions, with a significant increase in its market capitalization and a wealth effect in the meme space. However, despite Solana’s superior performance in some metrics, the prediction that its market capitalization would approach or surpass Ethereum has not yet been realized.
Although the NFT market showed some signs of recovery in the second half of the year, the expected "JPEG wave" did not set off a craze as expected, and only a few high-end NFT series successfully attracted more attention. Artificial intelligence-related tokens have indeed triggered a wave of enthusiasm, but the valuations of many tokens are still inflated. The combination of AI and Crypto is currently more like a means of financing, and there is still a long way to go before the real technology is implemented. In addition, despite the increase in activities in the DeFi field, the security issues related to Staking have not erupted as expected, and the maturity of the technology still needs time to be further tested.
IOBC Capital
Related reading: IOBC Capital: 10 predictions for 2024
2024 Forecast:
☑️ After the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved, it may bring in 30B+ incremental funds
❌ The total market value of inscriptions in the Bitcoin ecosystem may reach 20B+, and only the top MEMEs with real Fair Launch have a medium- and long-term consensus
☑️ Bitcoin Layer2 will usher in rapid development, which is beneficial to Bitcoin ecological application-based Infra
❌ Ethereum Layer2 TVL will surpass Ethereum Layer1 and may reach 100B+
☑️ ZK Rollup’s TVL volume is still not comparable to Optimistic Rollup, but the zk-type modular combination of Ethereum Layer2 Components will be more complete
☑️Layerzero will issue tokens in the first half of the year, which is expected to ignite the entire chain track
⭕️ Parallel EVM’s new narrative will drive the secondary growth of Sei v2 and other chains
⭕️ The market size of DePIN may grow 10 times
❌ Autonomous World / Fully onchain games with strong social attributes may emerge
☑️ There will be star cases of AI and Crypto integration in multiple application scenarios
Summarize:
IOBC Capital's forecast for 2024 is comprehensive and bold, but it is obviously too optimistic. The rune market in the first half of 2024 briefly continued the craze of the Bitcoin inscription ecosystem last year, but what followed was the cruel reality of "cutting in half again and again"; many Ethereum Layer 2 public chains have not been bought by users, and there is still a huge gap between TVL and the Ethereum main network. The highest TVL this year was a market value of US$55.3 billion in December; Layerzero ushered in TGE in the middle of the year, but the process was also bumpy. Due to the sluggish market, the full-chain track is still accelerating, but it has not ushered in the ideal climax; the DePIN track has indeed ushered in huge growth this year, but the forecast of a 10-fold increase in market size is indeed a bit optimistic, from US$9 billion at the beginning of the year to about US$25 billion at the end of the year (roughly estimated).
HTX Venture
Related reading:
HTX Ventures 2023 Year in Review
2024 Forecast:
⭕️ Trading Innovation: The emergence of mature trading robots and new trading infrastructure has witnessed the continuous innovation of trading mechanisms, implying more dynamic and efficient market interactions.
☑️ Layer 2 Evolution: Driven by the highly anticipated Cancun upgrade, the fierce competition for Layer 2 solutions may give rise to major advances in scalability and efficiency, further consolidating the key role of this track.
❌ Web3 and X-Fi Updates: The move towards true Web3 projects (e.g. the success of platforms like Friend.tech) signals a more integrated approach to incorporating social and gaming elements into the crypto space.
☑️ Convergence with Traditional Finance: Discussions around Bitcoin ETFs and real-world assets (RWAs), especially the possibility of a Bitcoin spot ETF breakout, highlight the growing convergence of traditional finance and the crypto industry, which is expected to mark a new era of market growth and mainstream acceptance.
Summarize:
These predictions have been partially verified, especially in terms of integration with traditional finance. The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF has significantly promoted institutional capital inflows, enhanced market confidence, and the crypto industry has gradually been accepted by mainstream finance. However, the predictions of trading innovation and Web3 and X-Fi have not yet been fully realized. Although there has been progress in the development of trading robots and new infrastructure, it has not yet brought revolutionary changes to market interactions; in addition, Friend.tech has suffered an embarrassing downturn this year.
HTX Ventures’ 2025 outlook is out——
Bankless
Related reading:
" Bankless: 2024 will be the AI+Crypto cycle "
Six major crypto topics that Bankless will focus on in 2024: LRT, DA war, parallel EVM
☑️ EigenLayer surpasses $10 billion in TVL
❌1 million ETH burned
❌ ETH Layer2 turns to optimized VM and parallel EVM
❌Solana downtime
Summarize:
Judging from the actual market, these predictions have been partially realized, but they are generally optimistic. EigenLayer's performance is indeed impressive, with TVL exceeding $10 billion, proving that the restaking model has been highly recognized by the market. However, the burn amount of 1 million ETH has not been reached (as of press time, according to data, the burn amount in the past year is 472,000 ETH). Although the activity of the Ethereum network has increased, the transaction volume and usage rate have not yet driven the burn amount to meet expectations.
Regarding the development of ETH Layer2, the current focus is still on scalability optimization (such as zkEVM and Optimistic Rollup). Although the exploration of parallel EVM has sparked discussion, it has not become the mainstream direction. This prediction obviously overestimates the speed of technological transformation in the short term. The prediction of Solana downtime did not come true. On the contrary, Solana has made significant progress in stability.
