1. The full outbreak of Binance ecosystem: CZ’s return and BSC chain’s “open card” strategy
1. CZ’s influence reshapes and boosts market confidence
- Market effect after release: After CZ is released in September 2024, his personal wealth (about $60 billion) and Binance resources quickly activated market sentiment. Although he is no longer the CEO, he has become the "super spokesperson" of the BNB Chain ecosystem through high-frequency interactions on social media (such as posting "gm" tweets every day).
- BNB Chain’s traffic engine: The liquidity incentive plan led by CZ (such as the $4.4 million Meme special support) has pushed BNB Chain’s daily active addresses to exceed one million, and its transaction volume has surpassed the total of Solana and Ethereum, realizing the “traffic-funds-transactions” closed loop.
2. From Meme to AI: The Ultimate Goal of Ecological Niche Competition
- The cold start value of Meme: The BSC chain attracts short-term traffic through MEME projects such as CaptainBNB and TST, but CZ clearly stated that "Meme is just a means" and the ultimate goal is to promote the development of rigid demand tracks such as AI and payment.
- Implementation of AI strategy: YZi Labs under Binance has invested in multiple Crypto+AI projects (such as Vana and Tensorplex Labs), and plans to integrate BNB/BSC as a payment option into the AI Agent economic model to build an ecological barrier of "tradability × practicality".
3. CZ’s “BNB Faith” and Ecosystem Support
- Funding tilt strategy: CZ announced that all BNB donations received by his personal address will be used to purchase BSC ecological tokens, directly injecting liquidity into the project and forming a positive cycle of "community-funds-value".
- Payment scenario expansion: YZi Labs is testing three BNB/BSC-based payment projects, aiming to integrate cryptocurrency into scenarios such as KOL time tokenization and cross-border payments, and enhance the practical value of BNB.
2. Ethereum’s dilemma and dawn: Vitalik’s technical persistence behind his silence
1. Low prices and community doubts
- ETH/BTC exchange rate hits new low: In March 2025, the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell to 0.022676, the lowest since 2020. The selling of whales and the stampede of retail investors exacerbated the FUD sentiment in the market.
- The “de-deification” of Vitalik: The community’s shift in calling him “V God” to “Little V” reflects dissatisfaction with his technological idealism, especially the lack of disruptive innovation after DeFi Summer.
2. Technology upgrades and the potential salvation of ETFs
- Expectations for Pectra upgrade: The upcoming Pectra upgrade (integrating the execution layer and consensus layer) in April will enhance pledge flexibility and network performance, paving the way for a pledgeable ETH spot ETF. Institutions such as Fidelity and Grayscale have submitted relevant applications, which, if approved, may attract tens of billions of dollars of capital inflows.
- The institutionalization wave of Layer2: Traditional giants such as Sony and Deutsche Bank built Layer2 on Ethereum. Although it did not detonate the C-end market, it highlighted its technological maturity and B-end recognition.
3. Repositioning under ecological differentiation
- Infrastructure perfection and innovation vacuum: Ethereum's smart contracts, Layer2 and other infrastructure are already complete, but lack "phenomenal applications". In contrast, chains such as Solana and TON have seized the minds of users with their ecological characteristics.
- Vitalik's long-termism: Despite short-term setbacks, Vitalik still insists on his original intention of "changing the world with technology". The concepts he advocates, such as decentralized governance and square voting, may become the cornerstone of future social experiments.
3. Investment logic under industry differentiation: enthusiasm, risk and rationality coexist
1. The speculative trap of the MEME craze
- The "get-rich-quick effect" of the BSC chain: CaptainBNB surged 13,000% in 6 hours, and TST's market value soared to US$41 million. These cases attracted retail investors to pour in, but most projects lacked value support, and we need to be wary of the risk of collapse after the heat subsides.
- The sword of regulation is hanging high: The U.S. Congress is discussing legislation to restrict "political figures issuing coins". If the Trump family tokens (such as TRUMP coins) are hit, it may trigger an avalanche in the sector.
2. Value accumulation opportunities in the AI track
- Binance AI layout: Projects such as SIREN that combine meme communication and AI practicality may become the value anchor of the BNB Chain ecosystem. Its "Gold-Scarlet" dual personality decision-making model not only meets speculative needs, but also provides on-chain data analysis tools.
- Long-term potential of technology integration: Decentralized AI data annotation, on-chain economic models and other directions are expected to solve data privacy and incentive issues, but they need to go through short-term bubbles such as the "DeepSeek open source impact".
3. Configuration strategies of mainstream public chains
- BTC’s safe-haven properties: If the Fed’s expectations of a rate cut increase, BTC may hit $100,000 and become a core configuration for anti-inflation.
- ETH's reverse layout window: If the Pectra upgrade and ETF are implemented, the current low valuation may provide a mid-term rebound opportunity, but we need to be wary of the paradox of "improvement of infrastructure ≠ explosion of demand".
IV. Future Outlook: Differentiation and Reconstruction in the Mature Stage of the Industry
1. “Industrial Expansion” of Binance Ecosystem
- CZ and He Yi have built BNB Chain into a "hot product factory" in the Web3 era through the closed loop of "traffic-funding-launch", but the challenge lies in converting short-term popularity into long-term user retention.
2. Ethereum’s “Technical Faith” Test
- Vitalik’s silence reflects the industry’s desire for “disruptive innovation”. If the Pectra upgrade fails to activate the ecosystem, ETH may further become an “institutional chain” and lose its dominance in the retail market.
3. Dynamic balance between regulation and market
- The U.S. SEC's pursuit of Binance's historical violations (what are the potential risks) and Trump's policy swings will continue to disrupt the market. Investors need to look for structural opportunities in the compliance process.
Conclusion: Finding Alpha in Differentiation
The crypto market in 2025 is moving from "wild growth" to "ecological competition and cooperation". The open strategy of Binance, the technological dormancy of Ethereum, and the speculative carnival of MEME together outline the diverse picture of the industry's maturity. Investors need to abandon the "god-making mentality" and dynamically balance between traffic and value, enthusiasm and rationality, and capture the cross-opportunities of technological upgrading, regulatory relaxation, and ecological expansion. Only in this way can we dig gold in differentiation and win in reconstruction.
