Author: Techub selected compilation
Written by: Ignas, DeFi Research
Compiled by: Glendon, Techub News
“By 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $250,000 and Ethereum (ETH) will reach $12,000.”
This is a prediction I just made up, it may or may not come true.
In fact, most of the predictions are like this. Although some predictions are based on some data, such as the predictions provided by VanEck, Cathie Wood (CEO of ARK Invest) is known for making bold predictions with astonishing numbers. She expects Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by 2026 and $1 million by 2030. As for Michael Saylor, he predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach $13 million by 2045.
Here is a summary of DLNews’ predictions for 2024:
But how helpful can price predictions really be? In reality, they don’t provide you with much actionable insight other than to make your position more resolute and to continue to hold (HODL).
In response, I propose a different framework for thinking that may make you a better investor not only in 2025 but also beyond.
“What are some important truths that few people agree with you on?” This is a challenging question posed by Peter Thiel because it is often easier for us to conform to the status quo than to think independently.
Matti once proposed a question framework when evaluating Zee Prime Capital's investment: "If you listen to the current discussion and narrative, what do you think are obvious truths and obvious lies? What are the non-obvious truths and non-obvious lies?"
In the last cycle, examples of truth that were obvious were:
Higher interest rates are bad for cryptocurrencies
War is bad for cryptocurrencies
Here are some obvious lies:
Cryptocurrency Super Cycle
Bitcoin is an inflation hedge
(3,3) Cooperation is sustainable and can exist in the long term
Obvious truth narratives are easy to identify, Matti explains: “The distinction between obvious and non-obvious can be redefined as popular and unpopular, or knowable and unknowable based on available data. Spotting non-obvious truth narratives requires unique insight, while obvious truths are visible at first glance, but still cannot be 100% certain because nothing is absolute. The boundary between them is not necessarily binary, perhaps more scalar.”
As he says, non-obvious truth and lie narratives are harder to identify, but they provide insight into what’s to come, especially when these narratives become obvious, crowds flock to them and FOMO (fear of missing out) sets in.
And we hope to be at the starting point of FOMO.
Some less obvious truth narratives from the last cycle:
It’s only a matter of time before UST collapses
FTX is a criminal organization
L2s lead to liquidity fragmentation
And the subtle lies narrative:
SOL is dead
Gaming is a natural product-market fit (PMF) for cryptocurrencies
New L1 transaction has ended
Here are some examples from Matti's blog post:
To outperform the market, you have to find ideas and narratives that already exist but are little known or not widely favored.
I identified RWA, DeFi options, Soulbound Tokens (SBTs), and Instadapp (INST) as potential counter-narrative trade opportunities. While DeFi options and SBTs did not make much progress, RWA and INST performed quite well.
The key here is still timing. It took INST a year and a half to achieve significant growth.
It is easy to identify these truths and lies in hindsight, but it is difficult to predict the future.
Next, I’ll share some truths and lies about the current cycle.
I’ll start with what I think are obvious parts, and then move on to the challenging, non-obvious parts. I also sought advice from some people in the cryptocurrency industry for more insights.
Here is a brief framework for 2025.
The obvious truth narrative
A fact or result that is widely accepted and based on observable evidence.
AI x Crypto is here to stay
Artificial Intelligence has dominated the crypto community (CT) over the past year and is likely to continue to do so until 2025.
Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are eager to get their hands on AI tokens, but there aren’t many to choose from, with TAO being the top choice.
But that’s all changed with the proliferation of AI agents, and we now have crypto-native AI agents publishing content on X or trading on platforms like Polymarket, as well as tools to help launch them.
Therefore, I believe that AI and Crypto will coexist for a long time, which is an obvious truth.
But this does not mean that AI agent tokens will continue to soar, the current AI agents are simple (for example, AIXBT just scans data and other people's opinions to re-express). And 2025 will be the AI agent super cycle, which is also an obvious lie.
However, bubbles ultimately incentivize innovation, and just as DeFi continued to mature after the DeFi bubble burst, AI agents will also persist.
Spot ETF Bullish
I am still surprised that so many people think ETFs are bearish. Some people think that "BTC in ETFs is part of the packaging of traditional finance (TradFi) and a 'Trojan Horse' that will destroy Bitcoin from the inside."
For Ethereum, an ETF could provide a stronger bullish impetus than all the ETH locked in L2, as TradFi would allocate a portion of its cryptocurrency portfolio to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The numbers will continue to rise.
Stablecoins are the killer app/product-market fit for cryptocurrencies
This is Stacy Muur 's insight that continues from the previous cycle.
In this cycle, stablecoins may eventually expand beyond cryptocurrency trading and into the fintech sector.
PayPal has launched a stablecoin, PYUSD, Revolut is launching its own stablecoin, and even Visa may launch a stablecoin, although this may have an impact on its profit margins.
Many projects perform better before TGE
This point of view was also made by Stacy Muur .
“My thinking at this point is that 90% of protocols have better overall metrics before they launch their tokens (HYPE and F tokens being the exceptions). Therefore, the product is more ‘popular’ before the token launch than after the TGE.”
DeFi Made Here agrees , as he said: "9/10 chains/projects are garbage, no organic usage, only fake TVL supported by private transactions."
I share this perspective as a reminder that we are in a very niche industry and, like venture capital (VC), we cannot expect all investments to generate huge returns.
The fact is that most tokens don’t survive for long and will go downhill. Our mission is to find the great tokens that can change the rules of the game.
Obvious lies narrative
Airdrops are dead
Token issuances with low circulation and high FDV (fully diluted valuation) have caused great damage, making it unworthy to invest in protocols that are excellent in themselves.
But I am still optimistic about the airdrop in 2025 because people's expectations have returned to reality and the airdrop craze has become outdated.
It is foreseeable that Hyperliquid may not be the last large-scale airdrop in this cycle. And now is not the time to stop clicking buttons.
Crypto projects need venture capital support to succeed
This is another lesson we learned from low circulation, high FDV token issuance. The VC "moat" is shrinking year by year. With the rise of public and private placement platforms such as Echo and Legion, projects can now raise funds from a diverse group of crypto-native investors.
Remember, many VCs offer little to no help beyond providing funding and putting a company logo on a presentation. Instead, getting crypto-native investors involved gives them a stronger stake in the success of their investments.
Of course, some lesser-known projects will still rely on venture capital, but looking for "100x chance of success" is no longer the exclusive right of VCs.
Bullish.
Memecoin, AI agents, and other super cycles
There is one word that should always keep you alert: “super cycle.”
The Memecoin supercycle was all the rage until older coins, including some “dead” coins like XRP and Litecoin, made a comeback.
Right now, AI agents are the hot topic. But that narrative will eventually lose traction relative to new narratives that haven’t caught everyone’s attention yet. Then attention will shift to the new narrative…
Memecoin is the favorite among retail investors
This view comes from CryptoKoryo , who is good at tracking narrative price performance and rotation. His conclusion is simple: "Rotation always happens after everyone enters the market." In short, whenever someone says "project x, y, z (such as SOL, TAO, HYPE, etc.) will dominate this cycle", it is likely a lie.
Plus, retail investors are less stupid now: they can use Phantom Wallet and find new narratives on Reddit, TikTok, and anywhere else.
In fact, a less obvious truth is that crypto-native users may end up buying tokens from TikTok rather than the crypto community.
DAO is decentralized, efficient, "smart" and transparent
In 2024, I embarked on a new journey: becoming a representative of multiple DAOs, including Aave, Lido, Instadapp, Arbitrum, Paraswap and Uniswap.
The turning point was the Compound DAO attack, where the attacker managed to pass a vote to distribute $24 million worth of COMP tokens.
The problem is that the DAO was so apathetic that token holders had no idea about the vote. It’s pathetic.
I spoke to Doo from Stablelabs and got some insights that confirmed what many people were wondering:
DAO is not truly decentralized, efficient, transparent, or run by “smart money”. (Techub News notes that “smart money” refers to funds that have foresight and quick response capabilities in the financial investment field.)
DAO funds are limited and may go bankrupt;
Most DAOs are still typically led by a founder or core team and are based on personal relationships;
DAOs can be protectionist or have protectionist tendencies.
Take the Uniswap DAO for example, it had no idea that Unichain was being developed.
Why is this important? We can’t continue to deceive ourselves and the community; the current DAO model is unsustainable and needs to be radically overturned. Whoever can fundamentally improve the DAO model will be able to create a new successful business.
The subtle truth narrative
Insights that are not easily perceived or widely recognized require deeper understanding or unique analysis.
Bitcoin is a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty
BlackRock’s head of crypto does not approve of crypto commentators/researchers who “firmly believe Bitcoin is a risk-on asset and trade based on unemployment, non-farm payrolls or ISM manufacturing data.”
Because Bitcoin cannot be both digital gold and a high-risk asset at the same time.
In its 2024 study, BlackRock claims that Bitcoin is a uniquely diversified asset with the following characteristics:
Bitcoin's high volatility makes it a "risk asset". However, most of the risks and potential return drivers faced by Bitcoin are fundamentally different from traditional "risk assets", which makes it unsuitable for most traditional financial frameworks - including the "risk-on" and "risk-off" frameworks adopted by some macro commentators;
Bitcoin’s status as a scarce, non-sovereign, decentralized global asset has led some investors to view it as a safe-haven option during times of panic or when certain geopolitical turmoil occurs.
In the long term, Bitcoin’s adoption trajectory is likely to be influenced by the level of concern about global monetary stability, geopolitical stability, U.S. fiscal sustainability, and U.S. political stability. This is in contrast to traditional “risk assets” which generally have an inverse relationship with these factors.
Bitcoin sometimes sells off at the start of major macro events. However, chaos, volatility, and potential money printing are bullish for Bitcoin.
The danger is that commentators continue to portray Bitcoin as a risky asset, which confuses the traditional financial industry that sees Bitcoin as digital gold.
Token utility is not necessary
Almost every cryptocurrency project will issue a token at some point.
Think about it: Which DeFi protocol can’t function without tokens?
Uniswap can run perfectly without UNI, Aave, Maker, Fluid, Ethena...all of these protocols can operate normally without tokens.
Yet, they all have tokens. Why? For governance? For community? For fundraising…
I actually answered this question in a 2022 post .
A few years ago, issuing a token did require some proof of utility, but this is no longer necessary.
Memecoins changed this perception the most, and the ARKM token launched by Arkham also played a key role.
If an analytics platform can launch a token, so can any crypto project: a wallet, an extension, a marketing agency…
This trend is continuing with future token offerings from Nansen and Kaito, but 2025 will surely be even crazier. Anything that attracts attention can be tokenized. Utility doesn’t matter, it’s the attention, the community, and the users that matter.
In fact, this was an insight that Aylo shared with me, that attention and price are related.
So my advice to DeFi protocols echoes this: click the button, sign up for whatever analytics tool is gaining traction, share your recommendations, and avoid the “why do we need a token?” discussion.
It needs a token because that’s what makes us (early users and founders) rich.
DeFi is more centralized than CeFi
This is a poignant point made by Defi Made Here.
Centralization here does not mean that the blockchain is decentralized or self-hosted.
As DMH puts it, “There are very few protocols that own the majority of TVL, very few risk providers that work for the same project and have a vested interest in every project, etc.”
The following is an unedited quote:
JPMorgan Chase has about 12% market share in the U.S., while Aave has 50%-70% market share;
L2s are unregulated multi-signature wallets operating in billions;
Tether is a multi-signature wallet with a scale of hundreds of billions;
Chainlink controls almost all value in DeFi;
Different agreements pay salaries for the same risk assessment team, creating a clear conflict of interest.
Therefore, the argument goes, there is a higher concentration of businesses and TVL in DeFi compared to CeFi. As the USDC crash showed, reliance on a few players can be damaging to DeFi.
Having said that, I remain optimistic about DeFi. As the market matures, more players will enter the industry and the risks will decrease over time.
Tether’s USDT dominance is coming to an end
The landscape of the cryptocurrency stablecoin market is changing as new players and use cases emerge, and USDT’s dominance is coming to an end. Currently, Tether leads in terms of trading and collateral.
However, future trends will focus on two fast-growing areas: savings products and payments.
TradFi is entering the on-chain savings market, while fintech and Web2 incumbents are moving into crypto payments (Visa will become a major player if it launches a stablecoin).
While these categories are relatively small today, they could drive more than $50 billion in new capital inflows over the next two years (according to Ethena’s forecast). Ethena and Sky are already leaders in the savings space, and sUSDe will also benefit from integration with traditional finance.
On the payments side, the TON ecosystem is leveraging Telegram’s network to build a seamless crypto-native solution.
It can be seen that the battle of stablecoins is shifting from being dominated by transactions and value storage (SoV) to innovations in savings and payments, marking the beginning of a new era of cryptocurrency.
On top of that, cryptocurrency regulations like MiCA are driving Tether out of the EU and other markets.
Subtle lies narrative
Fee switching is good for token prices
Token fee switching is often the top demand of token holders. However, revenue sharing is not a panacea to solve token price problems; it is just one of the bullish narratives for tokens.
Remember the “real yield” narrative from two years ago?
In fact, due to the abnormally high revenue/market cap ratio of cryptocurrencies, the revenue generated by most protocols is not enough to cause the token price to rise significantly.
I don’t think the fee conversion will affect the token’s appreciation; but it sets a floor for the token’s lowest trading price. If the revenue sharing works and the revenue is substantial, then at some point the token will become worth buying.
The bull market will last for a year and is expected to end in the fourth quarter
I agree with this view. But this is more of a prediction than a fact/lie.
I mention this because there is widespread consensus in the crypto community that 2025 will be the year to sell, most likely in early Q4.
But can things really be that simple?
It’s important to note that in 2023, the general consensus is that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin in 2024, and Solana will die.
But that is not the case. So, like most consensus trades, I believe there are factors that will disrupt the bull cycle and either delay or prolong it.
Ethereum L2 UX/UI fragmentation will continue
I think Ethereum’s poor performance is largely due to its inferior user experience compared to Solana. This problem is obvious.
Ethereum is slower and more expensive than Solana
The increase in the number of L2s leads to fragmentation of liquidity and user experience
Unlike building on the unified Solana, developers must choose a specific L2 for their application to succeed.
This poor user experience is very noticeable if you use Metamask, but the UX/UI is getting better every day.
OP Superchain and similar alliances such as Polygon and zkSync are improving the backend user experience. In addition, if Delphi Digital's prediction about the "Fat Wallet" theory is true, the user experience problem may be solved as early as 2025.
The “Fat Wallet” theory addresses Ethereum L2 user experience issues by positioning the wallet as the key to solving inefficiencies.
As protocols and applications become “slimmed down”, wallets become front-end aggregators and can simplify interactions such as cross-chain and liquidity management through chain abstraction.
By integrating Payment for Order Flow (PFOF) and offering Distribution as a Service (DaaS), wallets can also simplify access to DApps, reduce friction, and improve trade execution.
Additionally, wallets leverage their close ties to users to create a more intuitive and seamless experience, address high switching costs, and establish a smoother L2 onboarding process, ultimately driving user adoption.
Currently, with the rise of AI agents, user experience is improved as agents can perform all necessary cross-chain operations for humans.
NFTs are dead
This is an interesting point. Some people find it obviously false, while others find it true. That's why I put it in the "not obviously false" category.
At this point, “NFT is dead” seems like an obvious lie due to the PENGU airdrop and the significant impact it had on the entire NFT space. But we must be clear that, with a few exceptions, NFT has been losing money over the past year.
However, I’m looking ahead to the next big thing in NFTs.
In my opinion, 2024 is the year when Bitcoin Ordinals and PENGU emerge simultaneously, and I expect NFTs to go beyond avatars and cultural icons.
Perhaps NFTs can evolve in the age of AI, providing indisputable evidence that a photo is original and not created or modified by AI.
To be sure, NFTs can feel stagnant, but that’s simply not the case.
We need to build something revolutionary.
What do you think are the subtle truths and lies?
You may not agree with me, and that’s great! It means you have the opportunity to make money from narratives that are not yet consensus, but will soon be.
Builders need to look beyond the “obvious” to seek less-obvious truths to build lasting and meaningful projects. Buzzwords and popular narratives (such as “hot topics” in crypto) often lead to superficial efforts by builders that lack true innovation.
Matti gives great advice in his blog post.
For founders:
Combine hard work with genuine curiosity and first principles thinking.
Avoid structuring your project based solely on popular trends or narratives.
For most investors:
Assess whether the founder’s vision is based on a surface-level narrative of truth or on a deeper, unique insight.
Breakthrough products and companies are more likely to emerge from narratives based on less obvious truths.
In summary, the ability to distinguish obvious/imperfect facts from lies will allow investors to support ideas that have real potential rather than just hype.
