PANews reported on March 31 that according to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its expectations for US tariffs in 2025 in a research report early this morning, warning that escalating trade tensions may seriously affect economic growth, inflation and employment. The bank currently expects the average US tariff rate to rise by 15 percentage points in 2025, higher than the previous baseline of 10 percentage points. The main reason for the increase is that the comprehensive "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump on April 2 are expected to impose an average tariff of 15% on all US trading partners, and the average actual impact of tariffs is expected to increase by 9 percentage points.
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for core PCE inflation in the United States by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5% at the end of 2025, citing the impact of rising import costs on inflation. GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.0% in the fourth quarter, down 0.5 percentage points from previous expectations, and the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 4.5% by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a recession in the United States within 12 months to 35%, citing weak consumer and business sentiment and signs that policymakers may be more willing to accept near-term economic pain to pursue broader policy goals. As real income growth has slowed, the economy may be entering a more fragile phase, with sentiment and policy risks weighing on the economy more than in recent years.
In addition, Goldman Sachs said it now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July, September and November.
