JPMorgan Chase model: A key stock index shows the probability of a U.S. recession is close to 80%

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PA一线04/08/2025, 11:13 PM

PANews reported on April 9 that JPMorgan Chase said that the probability of a recession digested by stocks closely related to the US economy has soared to nearly 80%. At the same time, although funding pressures may intensify, credit product investors remain optimistic. According to JPMorgan Chase's market-based recession indicator dashboard, the Russell 2000 index, which has been hit hard in the recent sell-off, currently reflects a 79% probability of a recession. Other asset classes are also issuing warnings: the S&P 500 index shows a 62% probability of a recession, base metals show a probability of 68%, and the corresponding probability for 5-year US Treasuries is 54%. In contrast, the probability of a recession digested by the investment-grade credit market is only 25%, compared with zero in November last year.

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Author: PA一线

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