PANews reported on January 4 that this week, the darling of global speculators and the largest ETF tracking Bitcoin experienced the worst capital outflow in history, the volatility index of U.S. Treasury bonds quietly rose, and U.S. stocks experienced the worst year-end decline on record. There is no sign of panic in the market, but market trends do indicate a vigilance that has been largely non-existent in the past 12 months, at least in the field of risky assets. Concerns about Trump's policies and their impact on inflation have awakened the hedge market. Next week's non-farm payrolls report will play a central role in influencing market sentiment. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
At 22:30 on Monday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech;
At 18:00 on Tuesday, the preliminary value of the euro area's December CPI annual rate/monthly rate and the euro area's November unemployment rate will be released;
At 23:00 on Tuesday, the US December ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the US November JOLTs job vacancies;
Wednesday 21:15, US December ADP employment data;
At 03:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting;
Thursday 09:30, China's December CPI annual rate;
At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of layoffs by challenger companies in the United States in December;
At 22:00 on Thursday, Harker, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, will deliver a speech;
At 01:40 on Friday, Barkin, 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President, delivered a speech;
At 02:30 on Friday, 2025 FOMC voting member and Kansas Fed President Schmid will speak on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy;
At 21:30 on Friday, the U.S. unemployment rate in December, the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in December, and the U.S. average hourly wage annual/monthly rate in December;
At 23:00 on Friday, the preliminary value of the US one-year inflation rate forecast for January and the preliminary value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for January will be released.
Next week, the US will release several labor market data, starting with the Jolts job openings data on Tuesday, followed by the ADP employment data on Wednesday and finally the non-farm data on Friday. It is worth noting that the December non-farm data is the first report in several months that is not affected by one-off factors. UBS expects the number of new US jobs in December to be close to the recent average and continue to show a gradual cooling of the labor market, providing room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further. Given the current market pricing, strong labor data is unlikely to lead to further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, while weak data may make the market consider further interest rate cuts. But US data is unlikely to weaken the US dollar index at this stage.
