Five indicators reveal: Bitcoin is far from reaching its peak, and the altcoin bull market has not yet begun - my judgment after experiencing four cycles

AHR999 Index (1.25): Far from the "bubble zone" (historically 3–4+), indicating Bitcoin is not yet overheated. The 2021 peak hit 9.0.
Pi Cycle Top Model: Key moving averages (111D vs. 350D × 2) are only 68% crossed, unlike past bull market peaks where full crosses signaled tops.
Puell Multiple (~1.5): Miner selling pressure remains low (vs. 4–5 at peaks), suggesting no urgent profit-taking even at $120K Bitcoin.
Rainbow Chart: Bitcoin is in the "accumulation/cautious optimism" zone, not the bright red "top" area that precedes major corrections.
Bitcoin Bubble Index (13–15/100): No social frenzy or retail speculation yet, unlike the 80–100 scores seen at past cycle peaks.
Altcoin Market: Altcoin Season Index at 45 (vs. 75+ needed for a true altseason); Bitcoin dominance remains strong, delaying altcoin rallies.

Conclusion: The market is mid-cycle, with no signs of a top. Key triggers like retail frenzy, meme coin mania, or surging on-chain activity are absent. Historical data suggests further upside before peak conditions emerge.

1. AHR999 Index: Only 1.25, far from entering the "bubble zone"

Danger zone: 3~4 and above
2021 bull market peak: 9.0
Current value: 1.25 only

➡ Although the current Bitcoin price is higher than the "reasonable value", it is still far below the "crazy" state.

2. Pi Cycle Top Model: Key Moving Averages Have Not Crossed Yet

The 111-day moving average has not yet crossed the 350DMA × 2
Every bull market peak (2013, 2017, 2021) was perfectly hit
The current cross-progress is only 68%

➡ There is still space to the top structure and the model is still in a safe range.

Puell Multiple: Miners Have Not Yet Sold in Large Scale

At the top of the bull market, this indicator often reaches 4~5 (miners are frantically cashing out)
The current value is about 1.5, which is still low.
Even as Bitcoin Rises to $120K, Miner Rewards Have Not Entered Overheating

➡ The market has not yet been hit by heavy selling pressure from miners.

4. Rainbow Chart: Still in the “Accumulation Zone”

The top area is bright red, which has historically signaled large pullbacks
The current range is still in the middle, belonging to the "accumulation" and "cautious optimism" areas

➡ This chart shows that the current trend is not the top, but has entered the mid-to-late rising stage.

5. Bitcoin Bubble Index: Currently only 13~15 (full score 100)

The bubble index of the last bull market was as high as 80~100
Current: No social frenzy, no signs of mass speculation, and stable Google search volume

➡ The entire market is still in a "rational wait-and-see" stage, and retail investors have not yet fully returned.

Altseason has not really started yet

Altcoin Season Index is currently only 45
Only when the index breaks through 75, it will be a signal that the fake bull market has really started.
Bitcoin’s dominance remains strong, and there has not yet been a large-scale rotation

➡ The “climax phase” of the bull market — the phase when altcoins rise madly — has not yet arrived.

in conclusion:

All five major cycle indicators give a clear conclusion:

The current market is far from reaching the top, but is in a typical mid-stage consolidation period.

The last thing you should do now is to be washed out by the "top panic" and then watch Bitcoin break through $150,000 and altcoins increase 10 times or 50 times.

Remember these vertex signals:

✅ Search volume surges

✅ Everyone is asking you "How to buy coins"

✅ Meme coins explode one after another

✅ Crazy activity on the chain, gas fees soaring

✅ Social media platforms are full of “wealth freedom” shopping

And now? We are still far from these phenomena.