Today's news tips:
1. Macroeconomic outlook for next week: "Data frenzy" is coming, Powell and non-farm payrolls are bombing, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may be "poured cold water"
2. The US SEC filed a lawsuit against Touzi Capital and its CEO, accusing them of fraud in their crypto mining project, involving more than $115 million
3.10x Research: BTC market share drops to 56%, XRP may surpass SOL to become the third largest cryptocurrency
4. Data: US Bitcoin ETF purchased 71,570 Bitcoins in November
5. Musk seeks an injunction to prevent OpenAI from becoming a for-profit company
6.Base founder: No plans to launch tokens
7.Arthur Hayes: The bull market can continue, South Korea postpones taxation of virtual assets for two years
8. No major Rug Pull incidents occurred in November, and the total loss caused by the entire network was about US$203 million
Regulation & Policy
The market ended the week somewhat subdued due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the lack of liquidity was evident on Thursday and Friday, but the US stock market closed surprisingly strongly this week, with the S&P hitting a new high and posting its biggest monthly gain since November 2023, driven by technology and retail stocks. US employment data will dominate next week, and the following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
- Monday 09:45, China's November Caixin Manufacturing PMI
- At 22:45 on Monday, the final value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November
- At 04:15 on Tuesday, Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech
- At 05:30 on Tuesday, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams participated in a dialogue hosted by the Queens Chamber of Commerce
- Tuesday 23:00, US October JOLTs job vacancies
- At 01:35 on Wednesday, Fed Governor Kugler will speak on the labor market and monetary policy
- Wednesday 21:15, US November ADP employment data
- At 21:45 on Wednesday, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Moussalem delivered a speech
- Wednesday 22:45, US November S&P Global PMI final value
- At 02:45 on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was invited to be interviewed at the DealBook/Summit conference hosted by the New York Times
- At 03:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book on economic conditions.
- At 21:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending November 30 and the October trade account
- At 00:30 on Friday, Barkin, the 2024 FOMC voting member and chairman of the Richmond Fed, delivered a speech
- At 22:15 on Friday, Federal Reserve Board member Bowman will give a speech. At 23:30 on Friday, 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat.
- At 01:00 on Saturday, Hammack, 2024 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President, will speak on the economic outlook
- At 02:00 on Saturday, Daly, 2024 FOMC voting member and President of the San Francisco Fed, delivered a speech
Investors will get a fresh look at the health of the U.S. economy in the coming week, with the release of a closely watched nonfarm payrolls report likely to help investors determine the path of U.S. interest rates in the coming months. Job openings for October, due out on Tuesday, and the ADP employment report for November, due out on Wednesday, could also provide clues about the performance of the U.S. labor market. The market expects the nonfarm payrolls, due to be released next Friday, to increase by 183,000. Last month, nonfarm payrolls increased by just 12,000, far below expectations. Now that Hurricane Milton has cleared up a large number of Florida workers who lost their jobs, nonfarm payrolls could be higher this week, with some analysts predicting a high probability of around 220,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is also a key indicator to watch ahead of the Federal Reserve's December meeting. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.2% and payrolls are unexpectedly weak, the Fed's December rate cut is more likely, which could lead to a weaker dollar.
The probability of the Fed staying on hold in December is 35%, while the probability of pausing rate cuts in January rises to about 58%. Also interesting is that the probability of not cutting rates at both meetings is also expected to be 27%.
According to DL News, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed a lawsuit against Touzi Capital and its CEO Eng Taing, accusing them of engaging in an unregistered securities issuance fraud of more than $115 million. It is reported that Eng Taing falsely promoted the project as a "stable and predictable" high-yield savings account investment, but in fact these investments were "highly speculative and illiquid". The SEC accused the defendant of misappropriating investor funds for personal purposes and continuing to solicit investors after the business began to collapse. According to the information disclosed in the complaint, from 2021 to early 2023, the defendant raised a total of approximately $118 million through false advertising of cryptocurrency mining and debt restructuring businesses, including $95 million for crypto mining projects and $23 million for debt restructuring projects, involving more than 1,500 investors across the United States.
Regarding the information that South Korea will postpone the taxation of virtual assets for two years, Arthur Hayes said: The bull market can continue and South Korea's capital gains tax will be postponed for another two years.
Project News
Former Facebook executive: Politicians killed the Diem/Libra stablecoin project
According to Theblock, a former Facebook executive revealed that the company's stablecoin and blockchain project (originally called Libra and later renamed Diem) eventually came to an end, causing many employees to leave and switch to other blockchain projects. The project was sold to Silvergate Bank in January 2022, which abandoned the project and wrote off its investment a year later. According to David Marcus, the former head of the project and former Coinbase board member, the political conspiracy behind the scenes was the root cause of the project's failure. He called it "100% political murder" in a long article in X. "There is no legal or regulatory angle for the government or regulator to kill the project. This is 100% political strangulation-executed by intimidating controlled banking institutions."
David Marcus said that despite "...two years of nonstop work and changes to appease lawmakers and regulators" and limited support from some members of the Federal Reserve Board, including Chairman Jay Powell, the project's political prospects still face strong resistance from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who warned Powell in a biweekly meeting not to let the project go forward for fear of political backlash.
10x Research noted in its market analysis that the cryptocurrency market cap has surged to $3.43 trillion, while Bitcoin’s dominance has fallen from 60% to 56%. Higher overall market cap coupled with declining Bitcoin dominance is often seen as a sign of altcoin season. In crypto, market thesis tend to be self-fulfilling as conviction drives momentum. Since November 17, Solana (SOL) has remained relatively flat while other large-cap altcoins have outperformed. Ethereum (ETH) is up nearly +18%, while Ripple (XRP) has surged +70%. The market cap gap between Solana and Ripple is now just $6 billion, which means a “flip” could happen in a few days, with Ripple potentially becoming the third most valuable cryptocurrency.
Sonic Labs (formerly Fantom) launches testnet 2.0 Blaze
Sonic Labs launched the upgraded testnet 2.0 Blaze in preparation for the mainnet launch. According to previous news , Fantom has been renamed Sonic Labs and plans to launch a new EVM chain Sonic before the end of the year.
Musk seeks injunction to stop OpenAI from becoming a for-profit company
According to NetEase News, Elon Musk's lawyers have applied for a preliminary injunction against OpenAI, several of its co-founders, and its investor and close collaborator Microsoft to prevent OpenAI and other defendants from engaging in anti-competitive behavior claimed by Musk's lawyers.
The motion for an injunction, filed late Friday in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, accuses OpenAI, its CEO Sam Altman, its president Greg Brockman, Microsoft, LinkedIn co-founder and former OpenAI board member Reid Hoffman, and former OpenAI board member and Microsoft vice president Dee Templeton of engaging in various illegal activities and attempting to stop them. The charges include:
Prevent investors from backing OpenAI’s competitors, such as Musk’s own artificial intelligence company xAI.
Benefited from "improperly obtained competitively sensitive information" through OpenAI's relationship with Microsoft.
Transition OpenAI’s governance structure to a for-profit organization and “transfer any significant assets, including intellectual property owned, held, or controlled by OpenAI, its subsidiaries, or affiliates.”
Cause OpenAI to do business with any organization in which the defendant has a "significant financial interest."
Musk's lawyers claimed that if the injunction is not granted, "irreparable harm" will be caused.
Base founder: No plans to launch tokens
Base founder Jesse Pollak said on the X platform that the Hyperliquid project shows that it is a good thing to build a product that people love before adding price complexity. In addition, the Base network has no plans to launch tokens. The team focuses on construction and hopes to solve practical problems and allow people to build better.
Regarding the content about small expenditures released by the U.S. Government Efficiency Department (DOGE), Vitalik expressed his disagreement with the way the government efficiency department handled it. He believed that the examples listed were only a small part of all expenditures. If the government optimizes to avoid mistakes that look bad on Twitter, many valuable opportunities will be missed, and those large-scale affairs that are actually more wasteful will continue to exist because they look good. For small-scale public funds, a venture capital-like approach should be adopted, because the goal is to ensure that opportunities that can bring 1,000 times returns are seized. Cautious energy should be used on large-scale affairs.
Important data
Data: US Bitcoin ETF purchased 71,570 Bitcoins in November
According to HODL15Capital statistics, US Bitcoin ETFs purchased 71,570 bitcoins in November; in terms of US dollar value, November was a record month for inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs.
Michael Saylor: 60 listed companies have issued stocks to buy Bitcoin
Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, said on the X platform that there are currently 60 listed companies issuing shares to buy Bitcoin. The total Bitcoin holdings of these 60 companies are 522,565. In addition, HODL15Capital data shows that there are currently 12 listed Bitcoin mining companies that do not hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
OKLink released its November 2024 security monthly report, and the total losses caused by security incidents on the entire network chain were approximately US$203 million. The losses caused by phishing scams alone accounted for 64.80% of the total losses, totaling approximately US$131 million, but no major Rug Pull incidents occurred. The losses from REKT incidents accounted for 22.06%, totaling approximately US$45 million.
On November 13, a user copied the wrong address from the tainted transfer history, resulting in a loss of $129 million. An hour later, the attacker returned all the assets. On November 15, the v1 liquidity pool contract of the Aptos ecosystem project Thala was attacked by a security vulnerability, resulting in a loss of $25.5 million. Thala then negotiated with the attacker to restore all user assets through a $300,000 bounty.
OKLink reminds everyone that when performing on-chain operations, you must carefully check the receiving address. Some users have lost over 100 million yuan by copying the wrong address from a contaminated transaction record. Please be sure to carefully check the recipient address when performing on-chain operations. Do not get used to copying the address directly from transaction records or chat records. In addition, learn to use Web3 on-chain tools to avoid risks. OKLink provides tools such as on-chain address query, token authorization query, and large transfer monitoring to easily ensure on-chain security, grasp market trends at the first time, and get rid of on-chain anxiety.
500 million XRP unlocked from unknown wallet custody, worth over $970 million
According to Whale Alert monitoring, about 1 hour ago, 500 million XRP were unlocked from an unknown wallet in two transactions, with a value of over US$970 million.
HYPE breaks through $9, market value exceeds $3 billion, setting a new record
The market data shows that HYPE broke through $9 to set a new high and is now at $9.24, with a 24-hour increase of 33.9%. The current market value has exceeded $3 billion to reach $3,086,086,670, and the FDV has reached $9,241,678,903. The trading volume in the past 24 hours was $361,549,000.
Two whales sold UNI and LINK for a profit of $1.15 million and $3.06 million respectively
According to Lookonchain monitoring, two whales took profits on UNI and LINK today.
0x2B4F sold 135,150 UNI ($1.71 million) for a profit of $1.15 million.
0x6049 sold 363,814 LINK ($6.88 million) for a profit of $3.06 million.
A trader invested 1 SOL in Mundi and now has a profit of more than $435,000
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a trader invested 1 SOL ($169) in Mundi and now has a profit of more than $435,000, with a return rate of 2,580 times. Ban was launched on October 25 and quickly exceeded a market value of $60 million in two days. However, the trader did not choose to buy Ban, but bought the meme token Mundi, which was created earlier than Ban. At that time, Mundi's market value was only $85,000. He invested 1 SOL ($169) to buy 19.79 million Mundi and held it. Four days ago, he began to cash out, selling 18.19 million Mundi in exchange for 1428 SOL ($336,900), leaving 1.6 million Mundi ($99,000).
